WNBA · Finalupdated 05:35 UTC

Los Angeles Sparks vs Las Vegas Aces

at Las Vegas Aces

LVA expected to win by about 17 · both teams together expected to score about 179.5 points · odds to win: LAS 12.17, LVA 1.06

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 02:10 UTC

LAS 79 – LVA 89

Final

No verified saved picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LAS = Los Angeles Sparks, LVA = Las Vegas Aces.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

9 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 8 players has performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Los Angeles Sparksplaying LVA

SNneka Ogwumike · 28 min expected

points 17.5 → 17 actual

SRae Burrell · 25 min expected

points 15.5 → 11 actual

SAriel Atkins · 22 min expected

points 6.5 → 9 actual

SErica Wheeler · 18 min expected

points 7.5 → 16 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Makani (23 expected minutes) · Morgan (21 min) · +5 more

Las Vegas Acesplaying LAS

SJackie Young · 31 min expected

points 21.5 → 14 actual

SA'ja Wilson · 30 min expected

points 25.5 → 18 actual

SChelsea Gray · 28 min expected

points 11.5 → 17 actual

SStephanie Talbot · 17 min expected

rebounds 3.5 → 3 actual

Mai Yamamoto · 20 min expected

points 6.5 → 3 actual

8 players have no line from any bookmaker: Loyd (22 expected minutes) · Turner (19 min) · +6 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 05:35 UTC

Who is out

Pissott · did not play last game

Brown · did not play last game

Bell · did not play last game

Out Sellers · earlier listed as available (changed Fri 01:00 UTC) · 12 and 9 min in the last 2 games

Out Nye · left ankle · LAS

Out Brink · right ankle · LAS

Out Hamby · left knee · LAS

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Wed 02:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

5 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Wheeler, Gray, Pissott, Latson) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Wilson: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 37.0 in the last 5 games, about 7.0 fewer than usual

Young: expected to play 31 minutes, averaged 38.7 in the last 5 games, about 7.7 fewer than usual

Talbot: expected to play 17 minutes, averaged 25.5 in the last 5 games, about 8.5 fewer than usual

Gray: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 39.1 in the last 5 games, about 11.1 fewer than usual

Yamamoto: expected to play 20 minutes, averaged 10.9 in the last 5 games, about 9.1 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LAS had 38 days off before this game · LVA had 23 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 11 of the 86 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Pissott out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Brown out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bell out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sellers out (Fri 01:00 UTC) · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalNo verified saved CORE picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified. · checked Fri 02:52 UTC

9 other players with a posted line

Erica Wheeler · points 7.5 → 16 · 8.5 above the line · played 24 min (18 expected) · no final price

Mai Yamamoto · points 6.5 → 3 · 3.5 below the line · played 11.1 min (20 expected) · no final price

Chelsea Gray · points 11.5 → 17 · 5.5 above the line · played 32.6 min (28 expected) · no final price

Ariel Atkins · points 6.5 → 9 · 2.5 above the line · played 22.9 min (22 expected) · no final price

Jackie Young · points 21.5 → 14 · 7.5 below the line · played 33.9 min (31 expected) · no final price

A'ja Wilson · points 25.5 → 18 · 7.5 below the line · played 32.1 min (30 expected) · no final price

Rae Burrell · points 15.5 → 11 · 4.5 below the line · played 28.6 min (25 expected) · no final price

Stephanie Talbot · rebounds 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 24.8 min (17 expected) · no final price

Nneka Ogwumike · points 17.5 → 17 · 0.5 below the line · played 29.6 min (28 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LVA vs LAS · last 21 games · LVA leads · LVA record 16–5 · average score 91.3–79.5 · LVA has won by 11.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

22 Sep · LAS 79 at LVA 89LVA won

2 Jun · LVA 79 at LAS 69LVA won

23 May · LAS 101 at LVA 95LVA lost

What each defense gives up per game

LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.3 vs average

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 16.5, expected total 179 (Tue 05:40 UTC) and later LVA expected to win by 17, expected total 179.5 (Wed 02:10 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 45

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 57 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 59 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 76 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 77 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 79 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 83 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 218 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 233 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 235 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 238 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 277 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 325 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 376 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 155 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 213 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 218 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 219 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 225 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 229 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 231 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 253 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 266 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 271 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 287 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 294 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 307 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 309 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 312 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 312 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 329 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 354 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 446 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 449 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 453 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1063 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.