WNBA · Finalupdated 04:36 UTC

Minnesota Lynx vs Indiana Fever

at Indiana Fever

IND expected to win by about 3.5 · both teams together expected to score about 186 points · odds to win: MIN 2.34, IND 1.64

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 00:02 UTC

MIN 77 – IND 96

Final

No verified saved picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIN = Minnesota Lynx, IND = Indiana Fever.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 10 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Minnesota Lynxplaying IND

SKayla McBride · 34 min expected

points 17.5 → 0 actual

SNapheesa Collier · 33 min expected

points 19.5 → 9 actual

SCourtney Williams · 31 min expected

points 13.5 → 2 actual

SMaya Caldwell · 25 min expected

points 5.5 → 7 actual

SNatasha Howard · 25 min expected

points 11.5 → 6 actual

Olivia Miles · Out · left calf

points 18.5 → did not play, so no result

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Juhasz (18 expected minutes) · McDonald (8 min) · Delaere (8 min)

Indiana Feverplaying MIN

SCaitlin Clark · 33 min expected

points 21.5 → 27 actual

SKelsey Mitchell · 33 min expected

points 25.5 → 20 actual

SAliyah Boston · 25 min expected

points 15.5 → 17 actual

SMakayla Timpson · 20 min expected

points 6.5 → 8 actual

SLexie Hull · 15 min expected

rebounds 2.5 → 0 actual

Sophie Cunningham · 15 min expected

points 4.5 → 11 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Russell (15 expected minutes) · Hines-Allen (15 min) · +3 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 04:36 UTC

Who is out

Russell · did not play last game

Miles · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:30 UTC) · 17, 31 and 30 min in the last 3 games

Caldwell · new starter · 4 of 257 player lines not yet adjusted for the change

Out Kosu · right foot · MIN

Out Buenavida · coach's decision · MIN

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Wed 00:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

2 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 7 players (Delaere, McDonald, Hull, Russell, Hines-Allen, Johnson, Cunningham) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Howard: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 19.4 in the last 5 games, about 5.6 more than usual

Caldwell: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 16.0 in the last 5 games, about 9.0 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

MIN had 33 days off before this game · IND had 31 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 14 of the 166 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Russell out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Miles out (Sat 21:30 UTC) · did not play

Caldwell new starter · started, 18.6 min

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 10 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalNo verified saved CORE picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified. · checked Fri 00:52 UTC

12 other players with a posted line

Sophie Cunningham · points 4.5 → 11 · 6.5 above the line · played 29.2 min (15 expected) · no final price

Kayla McBride · points 17.5 → 0 · 17.5 below the line · played 12 min (34 expected) · no final price

Lexie Hull · rebounds 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 9.7 min (15 expected) · no final price

Courtney Williams · points 13.5 → 2 · 11.5 below the line · played 8.9 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.60, Under 2.26

Napheesa Collier · points 19.5 → 9 · 10.5 below the line · played 13 min (33 expected) · no final price

Natasha Howard · points 11.5 → 6 · 5.5 below the line · played 12.2 min (25 expected) · no final price

Maya Caldwell · points 5.5 → 7 · 1.5 above the line · played 18.6 min (25 expected) · no final price

Caitlin Clark · points 21.5 → 27 · 5.5 above the line · played 32.6 min (33 expected) · no final price

Makayla Timpson · points 6.5 → 8 · 1.5 above the line · played 23.9 min (20 expected) · no final price

Kelsey Mitchell · points 25.5 → 20 · 5.5 below the line · played 27 min (33 expected) · no final price

Aliyah Boston · points 15.5 → 17 · 1.5 above the line · played 29.8 min (25 expected) · no final price

Olivia Miles · points 18.5 → did not play, so no result · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

IND vs MIN · last 16 games · IND leads · IND record 8–8 · average score 83.9–84.1 · IND has lost by 0.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

24 Sep · IND 66 at MIN 86IND lost

22 Sep · MIN 77 at IND 96IND won

2 Aug · IND 100 at MIN 108IND lost

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.0−3.1 vs average

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.7 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 1, expected total 187.5 (Tue 05:40 UTC) and later IND expected to win by 3.5, expected total 186 (Wed 00:02 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 54

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 16 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 24 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 25 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 28 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 92 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 95 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 99 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 108 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 124 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 108 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 90 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 131 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 132 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 134 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 146 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 146 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 149 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 150 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 281 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 160 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 159 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 162 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 166 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 174 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 180 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 188 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 189 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 193 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 194 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 201 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 203 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 207 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 218 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 225 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 847 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1116 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.