WNBA · Finalupdated 17:29 UTC

Indiana Fever vs Minnesota Lynx

at Minnesota Lynx

IND expected to win by about 4.5 · both teams together expected to score about 185 points · odds to win: IND 1.54, MIN 2.57

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 00:06 UTC

IND 66 – MIN 86

Final

No verified saved picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: IND = Indiana Fever, MIN = Minnesota Lynx.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 10 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Indiana Feverplaying MIN

SCaitlin Clark · 34 min expected

3-pointers 2.5 → 0 actual

SKelsey Mitchell · 33 min expected

points 24.5 → 10 actual

SAliyah Boston · 27 min expected

points 14.5 → 4 actual

SMakayla Timpson · 24 min expected

points 6.5 → 2 actual

SLexie Hull · 14 min expected

points 3.5 → 5 actual

Sophie Cunningham · 20 min expected

points 4.5 → 0 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Hines-Allen (14 expected minutes) · Billings (12 min) · +3 more

Minnesota Lynxplaying IND

SCourtney Williams · 26 min expected

assists 3.5 → 10 actual

SKayla McBride · 26 min expected

3-pointers 2.5 → 6 actual

SNapheesa Collier · 25 min expected

points 19.5 → 6 actual

SNatasha Howard · 18 min expected

points 9.5 → 21 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Caldwell (23 expected minutes) · Juhasz (18 min) · +4 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 17:29 UTC

Who is out

Out Kosu · right foot · MIN

Out Buenavida · coach's decision · MIN

Out Miles · left calf · MIN

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Fri 00:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

2 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Hull, Hines-Allen, King, Bibby) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Timpson: expected to play 24 minutes, averaged 18.6 in the last 5 games, about 5.4 more than usual

McBride: expected to play 26 minutes, averaged 31.1 in the last 5 games, about 5.1 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

IND had 31 days off before this game · MIN had 33 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 59 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 6 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalNo verified saved CORE picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified. · checked Sun 00:52 UTC

10 other players with a posted line

Courtney Williams · assists 3.5 → 10 · 6.5 above the line · played 21.6 min (26 expected) · no final price

Kayla McBride · 3-pointers 2.5 → 6 · 3.5 above the line · played 24 min (26 expected) · no final price

Natasha Howard · points 9.5 → 21 · 11.5 above the line · played 20.4 min (18 expected) · no final price

Caitlin Clark · 3-pointers 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 18 min (34 expected) · no final price

Sophie Cunningham · points 4.5 → 0 · 4.5 below the line · played 15.9 min (20 expected) · no final price

Aliyah Boston · points 14.5 → 4 · 10.5 below the line · played 13 min (27 expected) · no final price

Makayla Timpson · points 6.5 → 2 · 4.5 below the line · played 8.9 min (24 expected) · no final price

Napheesa Collier · points 19.5 → 6 · 13.5 below the line · played 24.9 min (25 expected) · no final price

Kelsey Mitchell · points 24.5 → 10 · 14.5 below the line · played 21.6 min (33 expected) · no final price

Lexie Hull · points 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 16.9 min (14 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

MIN vs IND · last 16 games · MIN leads · MIN record 8–8 · average score 84.1–83.9 · MIN has won by 0.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

24 Sep · IND 66 at MIN 86MIN won

22 Sep · MIN 77 at IND 96MIN lost

2 Aug · IND 100 at MIN 108MIN won

What each defense gives up per game

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.7 vs average

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.0−3.1 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had IND expected to win by 3, expected total 183 (Thu 12:02 UTC) and later IND expected to win by 4.5, expected total 185 (Fri 00:06 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 48

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 39 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 41 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 45 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 218 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 219 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 221 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 224 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 235 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 238 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 92 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 398 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 486 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 117 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 182 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 183 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 184 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 182 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 194 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 191 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 201 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 203 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 205 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 208 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 212 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 219 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 220 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 221 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 224 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 234 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 241 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 245 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 245 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 246 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1016 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.