WNBA · Finalupdated 16:25 UTC

Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury

at Phoenix Mercury

LVA expected to win by about 9.5 · both teams together expected to score about 175 points · odds to win: LVA 1.22, PHO 4.64

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 02:14 UTC

LVA 100 – PHO 82

Final

No verified saved picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LVA = Las Vegas Aces, PHO = Phoenix Mercury.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 10 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Las Vegas Acesplaying PHO

SA'ja Wilson · 32 min expected

points 24.5 → 34 actual

SChelsea Gray · 32 min expected

assists 5.5 → 10 actual

SJackie Young · 32 min expected

3-pointers 2.5 → 1 actual

SStephanie Talbot · 20 min expected

points 5.5 → 14 actual

Jewell Loyd · 22 min expected

3-pointers 1.5 → 5 actual

Mai Yamamoto · 17 min expected

points 5.5 → 2 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Turner (18 expected minutes) · Parker-Tyus (15 min) · +3 more

Phoenix Mercuryplaying LVA

SKahleah Copper · 33 min expected

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

SAlyssa Thomas · 32 min expected

points 14.5 → 6 actual

SNoemie Brochant · 27 min expected

points 7.5 → 9 actual

SNatasha Mack · 25 min expected

points 9.5 → 12 actual

SSami Whitcomb · 20 min expected

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Ciezki (18 expected minutes) · Westbeld (12 min) · +3 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 16:25 UTC

Who is out

Dunn · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Tue 00:45 UTC) · 17, 11 and 13 min in the last 3 games

Whitcomb · new starter

Evans · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Thu 01:00 UTC) · 27, 18 and 15 min in the last 3 games

Latson · did not play last game

Out Plum · left lower leg · PHO

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Fri 02:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 3 players (Wilson, Young, Gray) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Yamamoto: expected to play 17 minutes, averaged 10.9 in the last 5 games, about 6.1 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LVA had 23 days off before this game · PHO had 38 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 71 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Dunn out (Tue 00:45 UTC) · did not play

Whitcomb new starter · started, 19.0 min

Flagged before the game: Evans out (Thu 01:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Latson out · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalNo verified saved CORE picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified. · checked Sun 02:52 UTC

11 other players with a posted line

Jewell Loyd · 3-pointers 1.5 → 5 · 3.5 above the line · played 25.4 min (22 expected) · no final price

Stephanie Talbot · points 5.5 → 14 · 8.5 above the line · played 30.7 min (20 expected) · no final price

Chelsea Gray · assists 5.5 → 10 · 4.5 above the line · played 35.5 min (32 expected) · no final price

Mai Yamamoto · points 5.5 → 2 · 3.5 below the line · played 13.6 min (17 expected) · no final price

Jackie Young · 3-pointers 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 34 min (32 expected) · no final price

Alyssa Thomas · points 14.5 → 6 · 8.5 below the line · played 26.5 min (32 expected) · no final price

A'ja Wilson · points 24.5 → 34 · 9.5 above the line · played 34.6 min (32 expected) · no final price

Kahleah Copper · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 31.5 min (33 expected) · no final price

Sami Whitcomb · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 19 min (20 expected) · no final price

Natasha Mack · points 9.5 → 12 · 2.5 above the line · played 26.5 min (25 expected) · no final price

Noemie Brochant · points 7.5 → 9 · 1.5 above the line · played 29.6 min (27 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

PHO vs LVA · last 25 games · LVA leads · PHO record 3–22 · average score 80.2–92.2 · PHO has lost by 12 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

24 Sep · LVA 100 at PHO 82PHO lost

11 Jul · PHO 58 at LVA 106PHO lost

17 Jun · LVA 86 at PHO 76PHO lost

9 May · PHO 99 at LVA 66PHO won

10 Oct · LVA 97 at PHO 86PHO lost

8 Oct · LVA 90 at PHO 88PHO lost

5 Oct · PHO 78 at LVA 91PHO lost

3 Oct · PHO 86 at LVA 89PHO lost

What each defense gives up per game

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 51

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 49 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 50 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 52 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 52 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 53 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 61 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 111 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 115 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 120 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 137 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 152 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 158 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 165 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 169 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 113 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 133 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 137 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 142 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 314 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 152 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 199 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 202 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 203 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 209 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 210 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 211 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 228 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 231 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 236 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 241 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 243 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 250 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 252 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 256 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 265 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 266 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 267 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 269 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 271 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 274 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 279 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 282 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 289 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 318 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 321 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.