WNBA · Finalupdated 16:25 UTC

Toronto Tempo vs Connecticut Sun

at Connecticut Sun

CON expected to win by about 2 · both teams together expected to score about 168.5 points · odds to win: TOR 2.25, CON 1.67

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) and 1 other bookmaker, Thu 22:58 UTC

TOR 81 – CON 95

Final

No verified saved picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: TOR = Toronto Tempo, CON = Connecticut Sun.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

6 players checked · 0 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 5 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Toronto Tempoplaying CON

SIsabelle Harrison · 30 min expected

points 14.5 → 19 actual

SKiki Rice · 30 min expected

points 14.5 → 28 actual

SLaura Juskaite · 30 min expected

points 14.5 → 15 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Allemand (26 expected minutes) · Nurse (25 min) · +5 more

Connecticut Sunplaying TOR

SLeila Lacan · 30 min expected

points 14.5 → 2 actual

SDiamond Miller · 29 min expected

points 14.5 → 3 actual

SAaliyah Edwards · 28 min expected

points 14.5 → 16 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Leger-Walker (29 expected minutes) · Beers (22 min) · +4 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 16:25 UTC

Who is out

Out Marshall · earlier listed as available (changed Fri 00:15 UTC) · 0, 8 and 10 min in the last 3 games

Out Conde · earlier listed as may not play (changed Thu 18:15 UTC) · 14, 22 and 20 min in the last 3 games

Nurse · new starter

Out Morrow · left knee · TOR

Out Griner · left knee · CON

Out Sykes · left foot · TOR

Out Borkowska · coach's decision · TOR

Out Burke · right shoulder · CON

Out Gakdeng · coach's decision · TOR

Out Mabrey · right groin muscle · TOR

Out Nelson-Ododa · right knee · CON

Out Rivers · left ankle · CON

Out Fagbenle · personal reasons · TOR

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Thu 23:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 5 players (Juskaite, Rice, Harrison, Angloma, Kneepkens) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

TOR had 38 days off before this game · CON had 38 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 6 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Marshall out (Fri 00:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Conde out (Thu 18:15 UTC) · did not play

Nurse new starter · started, 29.3 min

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

One game proves nothing.

FinalNo verified saved CORE picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified. · checked Sat 23:52 UTC

6 other players with a posted line

Kiki Rice · points 14.5 → 28 · 13.5 above the line · played 31.3 min (30 expected) · no final price

Leila Lacan · points 14.5 → 2 · 12.5 below the line · played 15 min (30 expected) · no final price

Diamond Miller · points 14.5 → 3 · 11.5 below the line · played 17.3 min (29 expected) · no final price

Isabelle Harrison · points 14.5 → 19 · 4.5 above the line · played 22.6 min (30 expected) · no final price

Aaliyah Edwards · points 14.5 → 16 · 1.5 above the line · played 16.6 min (28 expected) · no final price

Laura Juskaite · points 14.5 → 15 · 0.5 above the line · played 31.6 min (30 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CON vs TOR · last 3 games · TOR leads · CON record 1–2 · average score 98.0–96.0 · CON has won by 2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

24 Sep · TOR 81 at CON 95CON won

19 Jun · TOR 101 at CON 97CON lost

10 Jun · CON 102 at TOR 106CON lost

What each defense gives up per game

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.0+7.3 vs average

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 36

sds history (h2h)ok · 11 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 13 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 16 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 16 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 88 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 91 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 94 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 95 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 104 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 109 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 110 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 143 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 147 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 160 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 88 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 100 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 101 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 264 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 106 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 109 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 111 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 116 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 158 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 160 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 182 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 4021 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 3861 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 3863 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 3862 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 3863 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 3866 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.