WNBA · Scheduled · Playoffs round 1, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 16:07 UTC

Dallas Wings vs Golden State Valkyries

at Golden State Valkyries · starts Mon 01:00 UTC

GSV expected to win by about 7.5 · both teams together expected to score about 154 points · odds to win: DAL 3.40, GSV 1.33

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), 15:41 UTC

Picks not posted yet

Picks are posted before each game. 70 player lines are already posted; the players and risks below are current.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: DAL = Dallas Wings, GSV = Golden State Valkyries.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games · 1 not checked

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Dallas Wingsplaying GSV

Arike Ogunbowale · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5

Awak Kuier · minutes unknown

rebounds 6.5

Jessica Shepard · minutes unknown

assists 4.5

Maddy Siegrist · minutes unknown

points 7.5

Paige Bueckers · minutes unknown

assists 5.5

Golden State Valkyriesplaying DAL

Cecilia Zandalasini · minutes unknown

points 7.5

Gabby Williams · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5

Janelle Salaun · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5

Kaila Charles · minutes unknown

points 6.5

Kaitlyn Chen · minutes unknown

assists 2.5

Kayla Thornton · minutes unknown

points 8.5

Kiah Stokes · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5

Veronica Burton · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5

What could go wrong

updated 16:07 UTC

Who is out

Out Smith · left leg · DAL

Out Clark · face · DAL

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

GSV also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 86 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your prediction

closes at game start, Mon 01:00 UTC

No predictions yetYour record: 0 won, 0 lost

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

GSV vs DAL · last 7 games · GSV leads · GSV record 6–1 · average score 84.9–77.6 · GSV has won by 7.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

17 Aug · DAL 70 at GSV 78GSV won

7 Aug · GSV 94 at DAL 76GSV won

17 Jun · DAL 80 at GSV 91GSV won

What each defense gives up per game

DAL gives up85.3 points · 33.3 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.8% of shots · 33.1% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers

GSV gives up75.1 points · 32.7 rebounds · 18.2 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.4% of shots · 32.6% from three-point range · 13.7 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DAL gives up 85.3 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.0−1.8 vs average

GSV gives up 75.1 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.0−11.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had GSV expected to win by 7.5, expected total 154 (15:41 UTC) and had not changed it by 15:41 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 56

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 98 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 99 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-26)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-25)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-24)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-23)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-22)ok 200 · 105 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-21)ok 200 · 105 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-20)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-19)ok 200 · 107 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-18)ok 200 · 107 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-17)ok 200 · 108 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-16)ok 200 · 109 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-15)ok 200 · 110 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-14)ok 200 · 110 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-13)ok 200 · 111 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 113 ms

grading verdict/cardok · 115 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 117 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 138 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 249 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 255 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 257 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 261 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 263 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 277 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 286 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 304 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 97 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 456 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 107 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 109 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 110 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 125 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 149 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 170 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 173 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 175 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 194 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 207 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 210 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 214 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 216 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 231 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 233 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 236 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 249 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 271 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 905 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.