WNBA · FINAL · TUE, SEP 29, 6:30 PM

LVA @ IND

Aces at Fever

← All WNBA games on 2026-09-29
+4.5
Spread (home)
182.5
Total
-210 / +160
Moneyline

Snapshot market context · game-quote observation time and source book unavailable · snapshot assembled Sep 29, 8:50 PM EDT

GAME BRIEF · START HERE

Start with what happened, then judge the process.

Aces at Fever is a completed-game review. Any call below is record-only.

REVIEW
Open the 2-minute projection guide
Best next step

Review result, minutes, closing line, and abnormal-exposure notes; then expand the supporting evidence.

DECISION TIMELINE · REVISION FLOW

Loading frozen research checkpoints…

HISTORICAL FORMULA FEED · AUDIT ONLY

Results & Recorded Calls · 6 qualified

Start with the verified result and flat-1u CORE benchmark P&L. Then compare the recorded call with the evidence that can be reconstructed without using this game's outcome.

FINAL RESULT · CORE BENCHMARK

LOSS
Actual
10 vs 13.5
Flat-1u P&L
−1.00u
CLV
+8.3¢
Minutes
9.2

Injury / abnormal exposure: Outcome receipt marked this appearance as abnormal exposure after 9.2 minutes. Blowout foul trouble

SERVER RECORD · CORE FORMULA · PR

Makayla Timpson O 13.5 PR +140

Persisted decision price · 2.0u model stake · bet_clv:2022884

RECORD ONLY

Current meaning: This is a settled, record-only decision. It is historical evidence, not a current wager.

PROP BRIEF · START HERE

Review the recorded result—not a current play.

What the evidence saysContext pushes against the OVER

Recent games · Last 5 pushes back; Against this opponent pushes back; Similar players vs opponent unavailable. Treat the disagreement as a reason to demand a better price or pass.

Main riskWhat could break the read

Decision time is unavailable; the capture bucket must not be read as decision time.

Next stepReview the process

Compare the result, minutes, closing line, and receipt limits below.

Verified receipt & source timing

Canonical decision receipt · Receipt bet_clv:2022884 · formula consensus_devig v1.0.0 · capture bucket Sep 28, 8:00 PM EDT (not decision time) · decision time unavailable · point-in-time unverified

WHY IT WAS SURFACED · FEED PRICE

51.0% model chance vs 41.7% needed at +140 · +9.3pp probability edge · +0.2% expected profit / 1u
Model stake2.0u

Why “<52%” can still show positive value: that label describes raw hit likelihood. At plus money, a candidate can hit less than half the time and still carry positive expected value because a win pays more than 1u.

PREGAME CHECKS · AUDIT

What the receipt can—and cannot—prove

Decision receiptRecord only

+140 · sportsbook unavailable · quote observation unavailable · bet_clv:2022884

Pregame availabilityNot timestamped

No immutable pre-tip player-status receipt is connected.

Pregame roleNot verified

Pick-time minutes, lineup, and role inputs are not verified by the canonical receipt.

SUPPORTING CONTEXT · NOT EXTRA VOTES

Recent, H2H, and similar players

Read each row on its stated basis
Recent games · Last 5Pushes back
2 of 5 would have hit

Against today's OVER 13.5 · 11.0 average · 19.0 average minutes

Against this opponentPushes back
1 of 5 would have hit

Vs LVA at today's OVER 13.5 · 7.8 average

Similar players vs opponentUnavailable
Comparable-player sample unavailable

The matchup comparison service returned 500.

BOTTOM LINE

Context pushes against the OVER

Recent games · Last 5 pushes back; Against this opponent pushes back; Similar players vs opponent unavailable. Treat the disagreement as a reason to demand a better price or pass.

WHAT THE ARCHIVE IS MISSING

  • Decision time is unavailable; the capture bucket must not be read as decision time.
  • The source sportsbook or quote observation timestamp was not preserved.
  • The pre-tip availability observation was not stored immutably.
See game-by-game evidenceL3 / L5 / L10 · opponent games · comparable players
L3
1/3
At today's OVER 13.5 · avg 9.0 · 19.2 avg min
L5
2/5
At today's OVER 13.5 · avg 11.0 · 19.0 avg min
L10
6/9
At today's OVER 13.5 · avg 14.8 · 22.8 avg min

Player vs opponentFinished above 13.5 in 1/5 prior player meetings vs LVA

Position/team matchupNo stat-matched position/team factor is connected; direct defender assignments are unavailable

Reconstructed from a snapshot assembled Sep 29, 8:50 PM EDT. The target game and all same/future dates are excluded. L3 is contained inside L5, which is contained inside L10; they are one sample, not three confirmations.

DEFENSE CHECK · EACH PLAYER'S OWN CLOSE

How comparable players fared vs LVA
Descriptive · not another model vote

The matchup comparison service returned 500.

Open evidence game log

HISTORICAL MARKET CHECK

Against each game's own verified close
Normal exposure only

Checking verified pre-tip closing lines…

CURRENT-LINE WHAT-IF

Prior results against this card's 13.5 line
A retrospective comparison with this formula line—not the market line offered in each old game.
DateOpponentActualMinutesOVER 13.5
Sep 27@ LVA9.024.7Miss
Sep 24@ MIN3.08.9 · shortMiss
Sep 22vs MIN15.023.9Hit
Sep 20vs WAS20.023.5Hit
Sep 18@ TOR8.013.9Miss
Aug 28vs CON18.029.5Hit
Aug 23@ CHI21.028.2Hit
Aug 22@ NYL16.018.9Hit
Aug 20@ DAL23.033.9Hit
Player history vs LVA

Latest 5 of 11 eligible meetings · finished above 13.5 in 1/5 · average 7.8. Context only; roles and schemes change.

DateActualMinutesOVER 13.5
Sep 279.024.7Miss
Aug 615.031.8Hit
Jul 129.018.8Miss
Jul 56.08.0Miss
Sep 300.02.5Miss
See methodology & source audit6 pillars · 49 checks

The six items are pillars, not six yes/no questions. Each check below is evidence—not a gamified score. One hard failure can outweigh many verified inputs.

1 · Price & market value
Caution

What exact side, line, odds, and book are offered?

Makayla Timpson OVER 13.5 +140 · sportsbook unavailable

Source · canonical grading decision receipt
Caution

When was the formula price captured?

Capture bucket Sep 28, 8:00 PM EDT (storage bucket, not decision time) · decision time unavailable · quote observation unavailable

Source · bet_clv:2022884
Verified

What hit rate does the price require?

41.7%

Source · derived from formula-feed American odds
Verified

What is the calibrated probability at this line?

51.0%

Source · canonical decision model.calibrated_hit_probability
Verified

What is the probability-point edge?

+9.3pp

Source · p_hit minus formula-price break-even
Verified

What is expected profit per unit?

+0.2%

Source · canonical decision model.claimed_ev_pct (when persisted)
N/A

Does the exact line appear in the connected snapshot?

Mutable latest-market rows are intentionally excluded from historical pre-tip proof

Unavailable

What price or line turns this into a pass?

Server-authoritative playable boundaries are not published yet

N/A

Does the broader market agree?

Mutable latest-market rows are not used to reconstruct historical consensus

Unavailable

Is the market liquid enough?

Limits and liquidity are not connected

2 · Projection quality & uncertainty
Unavailable

What is the projected median?

Unavailable

Unavailable

What does the outcome distribution look like?

Distribution unavailable

Unavailable

How sensitive is the pick to minutes, usage, or pace?

Sensitivity model unavailable

Caution

What do L3, L5, and L10 show at this exact line?

L3 1/3 · L5 2/5 · L10 6/9 at the formula OVER 13.5 line

Source · reconstructed hydrator game history; target/same/future dates excluded
Caution

Is the model calibrated for this league, prop, and bucket?

The pick carries calibrated p_hit; bucket-level proof is not exposed here

Unavailable

Was calibration measured out of sample?

Out-of-sample calibration evidence is not exposed per pick

Caution

How large is the comparable historical sample?

9 eligible prior games in L10 · 1 under 10 minutes · nested descriptive sample, not 9 independent confirmations

Unavailable

When did the model run and were inputs complete?

Research run timestamp unavailable

Source · Gameplay Intelligence
3 · Availability & role
Unavailable

Is the player active, questionable, limited, or returning?

No hard game-report flag; individual status is not fully resolved

Source · player-state service
Caution

When was status last verified?

Snapshot assembled Sep 29, 8:50 PM EDT; injury-source observation time is not mapped

Source · data-hydrator snapshot assembly
Unavailable

What is the expected minutes range?

Minutes projection unavailable

Unavailable

Is the player starting or restricted?

Starter and restriction status unavailable

Unavailable

Has opportunity changed?

Opportunity feed unavailable

Unavailable

Which teammate absences change the role?

No confirmed teammate-absence attribution returned

Verified

Were injury-shortened games identified?

Yes. The outcome receipt marks this appearance as injury / abnormal exposure after 9.2 minutes.

Source · joined outcome receipt
Unavailable

What rotation change could invalidate the projection?

No material role change returned

4 · Game environment & matchup
Unavailable

How many possessions are expected?

A game-level pace projection is not exposed on this card

Caution

What do spread and total imply?

Spread (home) +4.5 · Total 182.5 · Moneyline -210 / +160 · archive context only; not an immutable pre-tip market receipt · snapshot assembled Sep 29, 8:50 PM EDT

Source · data-hydrator assembled game-market snapshot
Unavailable

Does opponent scheme affect this stat?

No stat-matched position/team factor is connected; direct defender assignments are unavailable

Caution

What has this player done against this opponent?

Finished above 13.5 in 1/5 prior player meetings vs LVA

Source · reconstructed player-vs-team game history; target date excluded
Unavailable

Which defender or lineup matters?

Defender attribution is not exposed

Unavailable

Is rest, travel, or schedule a disadvantage?

Rest and travel context are not connected

Caution

What foul, blowout, or game-script path creates downside?

Spread is visible; player-level foul and game-script risk are not quantified

5 · Execution & portfolio risk
N/A

Is the number still inside its playable boundary?

Not applicable after tip; mutable current offers are excluded from historical execution proof

Verified

How was stake size derived?

2.0u model-sized stake

Source · canonical decision model.kelly_stake_units
Unavailable

How much correlated exposure already exists?

Player, game, and injury-thesis exposure are not connected

Unavailable

Are exposure limits respected?

Daily, league, player, and prop limits are not exposed

Caution

What event withdraws or expires the pick?

Game start and hard availability conflicts are enforced; price boundaries remain a backend gap

Caution

Is this pregame, live, or halftime analysis?

Schedule status: final · formula-feed archive context

Caution

Is there a no-chase rule?

The UI expires the card after tip and requires exact-line verification; explicit price-bound enforcement is pending

6 · Outcome evidence & accountability
Verified

Did the pick beat the comparable close?

+8.3¢ closing-line value (price CLV)

Source · joined grading settlement
Verified

Was the formula line stored immutably?

OVER 13.5 · decision key pd_e1019362ebc70288ef6ecef9 · receipt bet_clv:2022884 · formula consensus_devig v1.0.0

Source · prop-decision-envelope.v1
Verified

Was a miss variance, injury, foul trouble, or blowout?

Outcome receipt marked injury / abnormal exposure after 9.2 minutes · Blowout foul trouble.

Source · joined outcome receipt
Verified

What are flat-1u and actual-staked ROI?

This pick's flat-1u CORE result is −1.00u. Personal staking remains separate.

Source · joined grading ledger
Unavailable

What are sample size and uncertainty interval?

Per-cohort confidence interval is not exposed on the card

Unavailable

Are probabilities calibrated by Brier or log loss?

Per-cohort calibration metrics are not exposed

Unavailable

Where is performance weakening?

League/prop/price/book/time-to-tip drift is not joined here

Unavailable

What are drawdown and losing-streak behavior?

Portfolio drawdown belongs to the ledger and is not connected to this pick

Unavailable

Is the edge persisting in new data?

Model-versioned out-of-sample persistence is not exposed per pick

Formula · consensus_devigReceipt · bet_clv:2022884Serving price floor · 1.70Research assembled · Timestamp unavailable

CORE FORMULA CARD · ACCOUNT ACCESS

Additional qualified candidate

RECORD ONLY

This hidden formula-feed row is archive context, not a current wager or proof of a pre-tip publication.

Create account to view

CORE FORMULA CARD · ACCOUNT ACCESS

Additional qualified candidate

RECORD ONLY

This hidden formula-feed row is archive context, not a current wager or proof of a pre-tip publication.

Create account to view

CORE FORMULA CARD · ACCOUNT ACCESS

Additional qualified candidate

RECORD ONLY

This hidden formula-feed row is archive context, not a current wager or proof of a pre-tip publication.

Create account to view

CORE FORMULA CARD · ACCOUNT ACCESS

Additional qualified candidate

RECORD ONLY

This hidden formula-feed row is archive context, not a current wager or proof of a pre-tip publication.

Create account to view

CORE FORMULA CARD · ACCOUNT ACCESS

Additional qualified candidate

RECORD ONLY

This hidden formula-feed row is archive context, not a current wager or proof of a pre-tip publication.

Create account to view

DECISION LAB

Loading the immutable evidence map…

AVAILABILITY SNAPSHOT · AUDIT CONTEXT

Availability & Injuries

2 hard availability snapshot flags appear. Player-level observation time is unavailable, so this does not prove the status existed before tip; formula rows remain record-only.

LVADana Evans · Injury/Illness-RightKnee;R.Knee (Knee)OUT
INDTyasha Harris · Injury/Illness-LeftLeg;LowerOUT

GAMEPLAY INTELLIGENCE · IMMUTABLE PRE-TIP CAPTURE

Model Outlook

Checking the latest captured lineup, rotation, matchup and market state…

MARKET CONTEXT · NOT A PICK · THIS GAME · T−1H

Prop Watchlist

A shortlist of unusual market lines. Compare this game's checkpoint with a player's typical close, then see whether recent results against their own lines agree. Only the Formula-Qualified Recommendations section contains CORE candidate wagers.

PROP FEED UNAVAILABLE

The market observation feed could not be checked

The player-prop signal feed could not be checked. The matchup page still uses the independently available schedule, injury, and recommendation data.

The Read

The Las Vegas Aces visit the Indiana Fever in a matchup that the available season-long data frames as close to a coin flip. Las Vegas carries a 112.09 offensive rating against a 105.23 defensive rating over 46 games, a net of +6.87, while Indiana sits at 113.27 offensive / 107.32 defensive over 45 games, a net of +5.94. The two clubs are separated by roughly one point of net rating, and that razor-thin margin is the single most defining number in this preview. On pace, Indiana plays slightly faster at 84.5 possessions per game versus Las Vegas at 81.69 — a modest gap that should keep the game in a controlled, half-court-leaning range rather than a track meet.

Indiana's profile is built on efficient offense and three-point suppression. The Fever post a 0.561 effective field goal percentage with a 14.48% turnover rate, a 23.76% offensive rebound rate and a 0.324 free throw rate. Defensively they allow 90.69 points per game (rank 12), 31.93 rebounds (rank 4) and only 8.05 made three-pointers (rank 4) while conceding 21.0 assists (rank 9). The rebounding and three-point numbers suggest a defense that takes away the perimeter and cleans the glass, though the raw points-allowed rank is middle of the pack. Not provided are opponent FG%, blocks, steals, shot-location data or any last-5/last-10 splits — the defensive last-10 fields are all reported as zeroed or empty, so no trend read is possible.

Las Vegas counters with the better defensive rating in this game (105.23) and excellent ball security. The Aces hold a 0.5501 effective field goal percentage, a very low 0.1345 turnover rate, a 22.72% offensive rebound rate and a 0.2904 free throw rate. On defense they allow just 85.96 points (rank 6), 18.89 assists (rank 2), 33.37 rebounds (rank 8) and 8.80 threes (rank 8). The positional split is notable: opposing guards score 39.48 points per game against them (rank 12, i.e. relatively permissive), while opposing forwards manage only 30.26 (rank 3) and centers 16.36 (rank 8), with center rebounds allowed at 9.24 (rank 3). That forward-suppression number is the most distinctive defensive signal in the entire dataset, but it cannot be tied to a specific player because no player-level stats were supplied.

Injury-wise, Indiana lists Tyasha Harris OUT with a left leg injury, while Aliyah Boston (right leg) and Caitlin Clark (back) are both listed Probable and expected available. Las Vegas lists Dana Evans OUT with a right knee injury; the data's beneficiary table indexes A'ja Wilson as the mapped beneficiary, but the scale of that redistribution is unspecified and no minutes or usage figures for Evans are provided. Critically, tonight's lineup arrays for both teams are empty, so no confirmed starters or rotations exist in the data.

What to watch for — and the honest limitation of this preview — is that the matchup agent returned an empty object, all twelve player agents returned empty prop_picks arrays with no stats summaries, and no coach minutes projections were supplied. There is therefore no basis to build a single player prop: no lines, no per-player scoring/rebounding/assist averages, and no minutes projections exist in the provided data. Any prop selection here would require inventing numbers, which would violate the data-integrity requirement. Accordingly, this output contains zero prop picks, zero best bets and no parlay. The only defensible reads are at the team level: a near-pick'em spread with a slight lean to the home Fever, and a total projection in the low-180s given the combined pace of roughly 83 possessions and the Aces' stronger points-allowed mark.

SUPPORTING RESEARCH · NOT A BETTING RECOMMENDATION

Matchup Outlook

IND
Projected winner
-1.5
Model spread
U 183.5
Model total
40%
Outlook confidence · MODERATE

Team Series History

IND vs LVA · last 24 meetings · LVA leads

Team results are game-environment context—not validation for an individual player prop. Player-specific opponent history lives inside each recommendation card.

7–17
IND record
82–86
Avg score (home)
-4.1
Avg margin
35.4
Avg reb

RECENT MEETINGS

09/27IND 85 @ LVA 102LIND
08/06LVA 86 @ IND 84LIND
07/12IND 109 @ LVA 75WIND
07/05IND 84 @ LVA 68WIND
09/30IND 98 @ LVA 107LIND
09/28LVA 83 @ IND 90WIND
09/26LVA 84 @ IND 72LIND