WNBA · Sep 30 gameAll props Full sheet

Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics

FinalATL 93 – WAS 75Page updated 00:50 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 5 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

5Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 1 availability alert

Out Jones · left leg · ATL

Reese, Canada, Iriafen, Austin have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons are unavailable.

Kiki IriafenUnder 10.5 rebounds + assists

LostActual 20

Posted odds2.45Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Kiki’s rebounds + assists

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 2.45. Last price before tip: 2.10.

Recorded result: −1.00 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

Price movement history is unavailable for this line.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

Rhyne HowardOver 26.5 points + rebounds + assists

LostActual 22

Posted odds2.25

Naz HillmonUnder 8.5 points + rebounds

LostActual 13

Posted odds2.22

Kiki IriafenUnder 26.5 points + rebounds + assists

LostActual 35

Posted odds2.14

Cotie McMahonOver 4.5 points

LostActual 0

Posted odds1.95

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Jones · left leg · ATL

Players and minutes22 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 22 rostered players. 5 published picks use separate saved records.

Atlanta Dream

11 players · no line in this feed

Allisha Gray33 min · source estimate

Rhyne Howard33 min · source estimate

Angel Reese32 min · source estimate

Jordin Canada32 min · source estimate

Naz Hillmon26 min · source estimate

DeWanna Bonner17 min · source estimate

Madina Okot9 min · source estimate

Te-Hina Paopao7 min · source estimate

Isobel Borlase6 min · source estimate

Sika Kone3 min · source estimate

Shatori Walker-Kimbrough2 min · source estimate

Washington Mystics

11 players · no line in this feed

Sonia Citron33 min · source estimate

Kiki Iriafen30 min · source estimate

Shakira Austin30 min · source estimate

Michaela Onyenwere25 min · source estimate

Georgia Amoore23 min · source estimate

Cotie McMahon18 min · source estimate

Lauren Betts17 min · source estimate

Betnijah Laney-Hamilton15 min · source estimate

Alicia Florez6 min · source estimate

Angela Dugalic2 min · source estimate

Cassandre Prosper1 min · source estimate

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

Game odds unavailable.

What could go wrong

updated 00:50 UTC

Who is out

Littlepage-Buggs · did not play last game

Harmon · did not play last game

Nivar · did not play last game

Villa · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 20:15 UTC)

Out Jones · left leg · ATL

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Wed 23:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

Reese, Canada, Iriafen, Austin have repeated minutes estimates. These may be source defaults; individual provenance is unavailable. Recent-minute comparisons are unavailable.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

ATL had 10 days off before this game · WAS had 42 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 5 published picks use separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Littlepage-Buggs out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Harmon out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jones out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nivar out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Villa out (Sat 20:15 UTC) · did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 5 picks won0 won, 5 lost · −5.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 6.5% higher than the last before the start · checked Fri 23:52 UTC

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

WAS vs ATL · last 21 games · ATL leads · WAS record 10–11 · average score 80.1–81.1 · WAS has lost by 1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 Sep · ATL 93 at WAS 75WAS lost

27 Sep · WAS 77 at ATL 92WAS lost

7 Aug · ATL 74 at WAS 79WAS won

2 Jul · ATL 76 at WAS 81WAS won

6 Jun · WAS 77 at ATL 109WAS lost

What each defense gives up per game

ATL gives up82.7 points · 32.1 rebounds · 18.4 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 45.5% of shots · 34.1% from three-point range · 15.2 opponent turnovers

WAS gives up83.2 points · 30.0 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.9% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

ATL gives up 82.7 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.0−4.3 vs average

WAS gives up 83.2 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.0−3.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 5

Kiki Iriafen · U 10.5 ra+145value_edge_pct +16.66 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Rhyne Howard · O 26.5 pra+125value_edge_pct +12.50 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Kiki Iriafen · U 26.5 pra+114value_edge_pct +8.40 · kelly 1.85u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Naz Hillmon · U 8.5 pr+122value_edge_pct +8.14 · kelly 1.65u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

Cotie McMahon · O 4.5 points−105value_edge_pct +5.57 · kelly 1.45u · price_check unchecked · rank 14

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 5

Cotie McMahon Over 4.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −105 · bet_clv:2059615 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.1% · blowout_foul_trouble · actual 0 · 1.1 min · bench · excused

Naz Hillmon Under 8.5 PRLOSS −1.00ubet +122 → close −106 · CLV +6.4¢ · bet_clv:2041255 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.7% · conversion_unlucky · actual 13 · 33.3 min · started

Kiki Iriafen Under 10.5 RALOSS −1.00ubet +145 → close +110 · CLV +6.8¢ · bet_clv:2050801 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 20 · 35.5 min · started

Kiki Iriafen Under 26.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +114 → close −115 · CLV +6.8¢ · bet_clv:2050800 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.7% · conversion_unlucky · actual 35 · 35.5 min · started

Rhyne Howard Over 26.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +125 → close −102 · CLV +6.1¢ · bet_clv:2041256 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 22 · 30.1 min · started

Data fetches · 36

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-28)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 30 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-26)ok 200 · 88 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-25)ok 200 · 88 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-16)ok 200 · 94 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 103 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-29)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-27)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-24)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-23)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-22)ok 200 · 112 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-21)ok 200 · 112 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-20)ok 200 · 112 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-19)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-18)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds games/date (2026-09-17)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 120 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 123 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 132 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 173 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 245 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 256 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 435 ms

grading verdict/boardfailed 502 · 438 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 564 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 107 ms

odds player timeline (pr)failed 503 · 115 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 116 ms

odds player timeline (ra)failed 503 · 118 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 122 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 123 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 1145 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.