-3.5
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WNBA · TIP
NYL @ ATL
Liberty at Dream
← All WNBA games on 2026-10-04172.5
Total
+135 / -160
Moneyline
Snapshot market context · game-quote observation time and source book unavailable · snapshot assembled Oct 1, 1:02 AM EDT
GAME BRIEF · START HERE
The game is known, but the prop card is still waiting.
Liberty at Dream has 148 connected prop offers in the assembled snapshot.
01 · PROP DECISIONS
What the evidence says
The teams have 21 archived meetings; that is matchup context, not player-prop validation.
02 · AVAILABILITY
What could break it
1 hard availability flag returned (Brionna Jones). Player-level observation times are unavailable, so verify the source report.
03 · MARKET MOVEMENT
What changed
The market check is waiting for enough verified pre-tip prop data. 50 signals withheld by availability or data-quality checks. Market movement is context, not an Over/Under pick.
DECISION TIMELINE · REVISION FLOW
Loading frozen research checkpoints…CORE FORMULA CARD · VERIFY CURRENT CONDITIONS
Prop Decisions
Read the action, clear price, availability, and role, then use recent, H2H, and similar-player history as context—not extra votes.
The CORE formula card has not posted for this game yet.
RISK CHECK · SNAPSHOT STATUS · VERIFY SOURCE NEAR TIP
Availability & Injuries
1 OUT, DOUBTFUL, or INACTIVE player flag is excluded from the prop and rotation research below. A matching formula candidate is conservatively withheld pending source verification.
ATLBrionna Jones · Injury/Illness-LeftLeg;N/AOUT
GAMEPLAY INTELLIGENCE · IMMUTABLE PRE-TIP CAPTURE
Model Outlook
Checking the latest captured lineup, rotation, matchup and market state…
MARKET CONTEXT · NOT A PICK · THIS GAME · T−24H
Prop Watchlist
A shortlist of unusual market lines. Compare this game's checkpoint with a player's typical close, then see whether recent results against their own lines agree. Only the Formula-Qualified Recommendations section contains CORE candidate wagers.
MARKET OBSERVATION PENDING
No publishable market observation yet
Props are posted. The 24-hour pre-tip snapshot has not locked yet.
MODEL SIMULATION · ROTATION CONTEXT · NOT A PICK
Projected Minutes
Market-anchored game state + a conserved 200-minute rotation pool, simulated per player. Out and doubtful players are removed according to the projection service's injury-gated status snapshot. Range is the 10th–90th percentile across the simulation, not a hard floor or ceiling. Use this to understand opportunity, not as a prop recommendation.
NYL
Breanna Stewart31.7 (25–37)
Leonie Fiebich28.1 (23–33)
Sabrina Ionescu26.6 (22–31)
Pauline Astier23.4 (18–28)
Jonquel Jones23.4 (17–29)
Satou Sabally16.1 (10–21)
Rebecca Allen15.1 (10–21)
Han Xu12.1 (6–19)
Marine Johannes12.1 (8–17)
Rebekah Gardner11.4 (6–16)
ATL
Rhyne Howard32.5 (27–38)
Allisha Gray31.5 (27–35)
Jordin Canada30.3 (25–35)
Angel Reese30.0 (24–36)
Naz Hillmon26.7 (19–33)
DeWanna Bonner22.1 (14–29)
Isobel Borlase11.6 (6–16)
Te-Hina Paopao7.9 (2–16)
Madina Okot7.5 (3–14)
The Read
The matchup analysis has not posted yet. It will appear after the model run for this slate completes.
Team Series History
ATL vs NYL · last 21 meetings · NYL leads
Team results are game-environment context—not validation for an individual player prop. Player-specific opponent history lives inside each recommendation card.
7–14
ATL record
80.2–85
Avg score (home)
-4.8
Avg margin
35.8
Avg reb
RECENT MEETINGS
09/23ATL 83 @ NYL 65WATL
09/21ATL 95 @ NYL 84WATL
06/11NYL 104 @ ATL 90LATL