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Alysha Clark against the Golden State Valkyries

Averaged 5.1 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.4 assists in 8 games against the Golden State Valkyries.

—

Tonight

FRI · OCT 2
DAL @ GSV9:00 PM ETbench · 26 projected minutes
OutAlanna SmithLeft Leg
ProbableAwak KuierRight Wrist
2026 AT TONIGHT'S 3.5over in 8 of 32 games (25%)
PRICE THAT RATE NEEDSover +300 · best posted +128 · under -300 · best posted -167

Every game she played this season, tonight's excluded — no filter on her minutes.

GAMES SHE PLAYED 23+ MIN · 20262 games · 28.1 min · 2.5 rebounds

Tonight's projection is 26 minutes. These games were picked after the fact — by the minutes she ended up playing, which no projection can promise — so they keep her full nights and drop the ones cut short. Averages only; not a rate to read against a line or a price.

WITHOUT SMITH9 games · 13.3 min · 1.8 reboundswith her (23 games): 11.9 min · 1.8 reboundswith her →

Season to date, tonight's game excluded. Rates, not projections.

01

Every stat, vs baseline

hover a row for the gap against its noise
STAT
VS VALKYRI
FORM
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.1
3.5
+1.6
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.1
NOT MEASURABLE
Tonight's line 5.5 · over in 2 of 8 meetings
rebounds
3.8
2.5
+1.3
gap is 3.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
MEASURED
Tonight's line 3.5 · over in 4 of 8 meetings
assists
1.4
1.0
+0.4
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
no line posted
threes
0.9
0.6
+0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
Tonight's line 0.5 · over in 3 of 8 meetings
steals
0.5
0.4
+0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
no line posted
blocks
0.1
0.2
−0.1
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
no line posted
turnovers
0.9
0.5
+0.4
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
no line posted
pts+reb+ast
10.3
7.0
+3.2
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.0
DIRECTIONAL
no line posted
pts+reb
8.9
6.0
+2.9
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.9
DIRECTIONAL
no line posted
pts+ast
6.5
4.6
+1.9
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.2
NOT MEASURABLE
no line posted
reb+ast
5.1
3.5
+1.7
gap is 3.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
MEASURED
no line posted
steals+blocks
0.6
0.7
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
no line posted
field goals made
1.6
1.2
+0.4
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
no line posted
field goal attempts
3.8
3.1
+0.7
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
no line posted
three-point attempts
2.5
1.8
+0.7
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
DIRECTIONAL
no line posted
free throws made
1.0
0.6
+0.4
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
no line posted
free throw attempts
1.0
0.8
+0.2
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
no line posted
offensive rebounds
0.5
0.5
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
no line posted
defensive rebounds
3.3
2.0
+1.3
gap is 3.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
MEASURED
no line posted
fouls
2.5
1.9
+0.6
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
no line posted
usage 11.0 vs 11.9true shooting 45.4 vs 49.3minutes 21.2 vs 17.0

Baseline: form going into each game (the average of the previous 10), measured on 188 other games since 2022-05-24. Lines are tonight's most-posted line on each stat; the meetings above are context, not a pick.

02

The 8 games

rebounds · her form 2.5 · hover a bar
2025-06-14— 5-game mean2026-09-30 · newest
03

Why — minutes or rate

+0.62 minutes+0.67 rate  =  +1.29 total

Both: 4.3 more minutes and a 0.03 per-minute change.

True shooting 45.4% vs 49.3% (-4.0)

04

The matchup

concedes −20suppresses +2

Against the matchup: the opponent suppresses rebounds (+0.54 SD), so the defense does not explain this and something else does.

05

Game log

all 8 · 2 playoff games, marked · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
REBOUNDS
REB · AST · FG
VS 2.5
2026-09-30PLAYOFF R1 G2
GSV
HOME
30.9MIN
3REBOUNDS
3 · 2 · 6-7
ABOVE
FG
6-7
3PT
3-4
FT
6-6
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
108.9
USG%
15.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
+15
PRA
26
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1
GSV
AWAY
19.2MIN
4REBOUNDS
4 · 1 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
66.7
USG%
10.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-6
PRA
9
2026-08-17
GSV
AWAY
20.8MIN
4REBOUNDS
4 · 2 · 1-2
ABOVE
FG
1-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
75.0
USG%
11.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
-7
PRA
9
2025-08-30
GSV
AWAY
26.1MIN
6REBOUNDS
6 · 2 · 0-4
ABOVE
FG
0-4
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/6
TS%
0.0
USG%
7.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-24
PRA
8
2025-08-13
GSV
HOME
18.8MIN
4REBOUNDS
4 · 1 · 0-4
ABOVE
FG
0-4
3PT
0-3
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
20.5
USG%
13.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-23
PRA
7
2025-07-16
GSV
HOME
11.6MIN
3REBOUNDS
3 · 1 · 0-0
ABOVE
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
4.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+4
PRA
4
2025-06-29
GSV
AWAY
18.3MIN
3REBOUNDS
3 · 1 · 0-4
ABOVE
FG
0-4
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
0.0
USG%
12.0
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-13
PRA
4
2025-06-14
GSV
AWAY
24.2MIN
3REBOUNDS
3 · 1 · 4-6
ABOVE
FG
4-6
3PT
3-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
91.7
USG%
13.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+8
PRA
15
every game on file — nothing hidden