Chelsea Gray over 20.5 pts+reb+ast
She has cleared 20.5 in 133 of 229 games — 58.1%. That rate needs -139 to break even and books have been paying -101.
—
Tonight
THU · OCT 1IND @ LVA9:00 PM ETprojected starter · 32 projected minutes
OutDana EvansRight Knee
QuestionableStephanie TalbotLeft Leg
2026 AT TONIGHT'S 23.5over in 20 of 46 games (43%)
PRICE THAT RATE NEEDSover +130 · best posted -102 · under -130 · best posted -120
Every game she played this season, tonight's excluded — no filter on her minutes.
GAMES SHE PLAYED 29+ MIN · 202638 games · 34.1 min · 22.9 pts+reb+ast
Tonight's projection is 32 minutes. These games were picked after the fact — by the minutes she ended up playing, which no projection can promise — so they keep her full nights and drop the ones cut short. Averages only; not a rate to read against a line or a price.
WITHOUT EVANS33 games · 33.1 min · 22.2 pts+reb+ast · 18/33 over 20.5with her (13 games): 32.4 min · 21.2 pts+reb+ast · 54%with her →
Season to date, tonight's game excluded. Rates, not projections.
01
Distribution
229 games · hover a bucket5–10 pts+reb+ast · 9 games · 3.9% · under9
10–15 pts+reb+ast · 19 games · 8.3% · under19
15–20 pts+reb+ast · 59 games · 25.8% · under59
20–25 pts+reb+ast · 55 games · 24.0% · under55
25–30 pts+reb+ast · 47 games · 20.5% · over47
30–35 pts+reb+ast · 27 games · 11.8% · over27
35–40 pts+reb+ast · 8 games · 3.5% · over8
40–45 pts+reb+ast · 2 games · 0.9% · over2
45–50 pts+reb+ast · 3 games · 1.3% · over3
20.5
UNDER · 96OVER · 133 · filled bars clear the line
02
Recent games
pts+reb+ast · line 20.5 · hover a bar2026-06-23 · NYL · 24 pts+reb+ast · +3.5 vs line
2026-06-25 · DAL · 22 pts+reb+ast · +1.5 vs line
2026-06-28 · CHI · 32 pts+reb+ast · +11.5 vs line
2026-06-30 · NYL · 17 pts+reb+ast · −3.5 vs line
2026-07-03 · CHI · 28 pts+reb+ast · +7.5 vs line
2026-07-05 · IND · 20 pts+reb+ast · −0.5 vs line
2026-07-09 · POR · 16 pts+reb+ast · −4.5 vs line
2026-07-11 · PHO · 27 pts+reb+ast · +6.5 vs line
2026-07-12 · IND · 17 pts+reb+ast · −3.5 vs line
2026-07-20 · TOR · 25 pts+reb+ast · +4.5 vs line
2026-07-22 · WAS · 24 pts+reb+ast · +3.5 vs line
2026-07-28 · POR · 25 pts+reb+ast · +4.5 vs line
2026-07-30 · NYL · 23 pts+reb+ast · +2.5 vs line
2026-08-01 · CHI · 15 pts+reb+ast · −5.5 vs line
2026-08-03 · ATL · 26 pts+reb+ast · +5.5 vs line
2026-08-06 · IND · 20 pts+reb+ast · −0.5 vs line
2026-08-08 · MIN · 17 pts+reb+ast · −3.5 vs line
2026-08-11 · WAS · 19 pts+reb+ast · −1.5 vs line
2026-08-13 · WAS · 13 pts+reb+ast · −7.5 vs line
2026-08-15 · MIN · 24 pts+reb+ast · +3.5 vs line
2026-08-18 · ATL · 17 pts+reb+ast · −3.5 vs line
2026-08-20 · CON · 12 pts+reb+ast · −8.5 vs line
2026-08-23 · TOR · 18 pts+reb+ast · −2.5 vs line
2026-08-28 · TOR · 18 pts+reb+ast · −2.5 vs line
2026-09-17 · SEA · 20 pts+reb+ast · −0.5 vs line
2026-09-20 · SEA · 23 pts+reb+ast · +2.5 vs line
2026-09-22 · LAS · 22 pts+reb+ast · +1.5 vs line
2026-09-24 · PHO · 26 pts+reb+ast · +5.5 vs line
2026-09-27 · IND · 27 pts+reb+ast · +6.5 vs line
2026-09-29 · IND · 18 pts+reb+ast · −2.5 vs line
20.5
2026-06-23— 5-game mean2026-09-29 · newest
03
Recent form
40.0%4/10 · last 10
2026-08-18 · 17 pts+reb+ast · UNDER
17
2026-08-20 · 12 pts+reb+ast · UNDER
12
2026-08-23 · 18 pts+reb+ast · UNDER
18
2026-08-28 · 18 pts+reb+ast · UNDER
18
2026-09-17 · 20 pts+reb+ast · UNDER
20
2026-09-20 · 23 pts+reb+ast · OVER
23
2026-09-22 · 22 pts+reb+ast · OVER
22
2026-09-24 · 26 pts+reb+ast · OVER
26
2026-09-27 · 27 pts+reb+ast · OVER
27
2026-09-29 · 18 pts+reb+ast · UNDER
18
A 10-game window cannot resolve a gap under roughly 22 points of hit rate. Form is context, not evidence.
04
Market history
median · 1 postings20.5-101
best offered20.5-101
worst offered20.5-101
our break-even20.5-139
Median -101 across 1 postings over 1 games. That price clears what her rate needs.
05
Game log
25 of 229 · click a row for the box scoreDATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
PTS+REB+AST
REB · AST · FG
VS 20.5
2026-09-29PLAYOFF R1 G2INDAWAY36.9MIN18PTS+REB+AST1 · 7 · 4-11UNDER
- FG
- 4-11
- 3PT
- 2-7
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 45.5
- USG%
- 16.6
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- -10
- PRA
- 18
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1INDHOME34.4MIN27PTS+REB+AST5 · 8 · 4-8OVER
- FG
- 4-8
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 6-7
- OREB/DREB
- 0/5
- TS%
- 63.2
- USG%
- 21.1
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 5
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +27
- PRA
- 27
2026-09-24PHOAWAY35.5MIN26PTS+REB+AST4 · 10 · 5-10OVER
- FG
- 5-10
- 3PT
- 1-4
- FT
- 1-1
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 57.5
- USG%
- 21.5
- STL
- 5
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 7
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +18
- PRA
- 26
2026-09-22LASHOME32.6MIN22PTS+REB+AST3 · 2 · 7-12OVER
- FG
- 7-12
- 3PT
- 2-5
- FT
- 1-1
- OREB/DREB
- 1/2
- TS%
- 68.3
- USG%
- 20.6
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +2
- PRA
- 22
2026-09-20SEAHOME29.1MIN23PTS+REB+AST4 · 4 · 4-8OVER
- FG
- 4-8
- 3PT
- 2-5
- FT
- 5-6
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 70.5
- USG%
- 19.7
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +9
- PRA
- 23
2026-09-17SEAAWAY26.1MIN20PTS+REB+AST9 · 6 · 2-8UNDER
- FG
- 2-8
- 3PT
- 1-5
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/9
- TS%
- 31.3
- USG%
- 14.9
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +16
- PRA
- 20
2026-08-28TORHOME28.4MIN18PTS+REB+AST3 · 4 · 4-9UNDER
- FG
- 4-9
- 3PT
- 0-3
- FT
- 3-3
- OREB/DREB
- 0/3
- TS%
- 53.3
- USG%
- 17.5
- STL
- 4
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +18
- PRA
- 18
2026-08-23TORAWAY28.6MIN18PTS+REB+AST2 · 7 · 4-9UNDER
- FG
- 4-9
- 3PT
- 0-1
- FT
- 1-1
- OREB/DREB
- 0/2
- TS%
- 47.7
- USG%
- 15.8
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 0
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +21
- PRA
- 18
2026-08-20CONHOME28.9MIN12PTS+REB+AST2 · 4 · 3-8UNDER
- FG
- 3-8
- 3PT
- 0-3
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/2
- TS%
- 37.5
- USG%
- 13.0
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +20
- PRA
- 12
2026-08-18ATLHOME33.0MIN17PTS+REB+AST2 · 2 · 5-11UNDER
- FG
- 5-11
- 3PT
- 3-8
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/2
- TS%
- 59.1
- USG%
- 18.7
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 2
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -23
- PRA
- 17
2026-08-15MINHOME34.2MIN24PTS+REB+AST3 · 9 · 5-15OVER
- FG
- 5-15
- 3PT
- 2-6
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/2
- TS%
- 40.0
- USG%
- 23.4
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- 0
- PRA
- 24
2026-08-13WASHOME28.9MIN13PTS+REB+AST4 · 5 · 1-10UNDER
- FG
- 1-10
- 3PT
- 0-3
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 1/3
- TS%
- 18.4
- USG%
- 21.5
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- -3
- PRA
- 13
2026-08-11WASHOME35.3MIN19PTS+REB+AST2 · 5 · 5-13UNDER
- FG
- 5-13
- 3PT
- 2-6
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/1
- TS%
- 46.2
- USG%
- 18.8
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- +5
- PRA
- 19
2026-08-08MINAWAY35.6MIN17PTS+REB+AST2 · 6 · 4-9UNDER
- FG
- 4-9
- 3PT
- 1-5
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 1/1
- TS%
- 50.0
- USG%
- 13.3
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -9
- PRA
- 17
2026-08-06INDAWAY40.4MIN20PTS+REB+AST2 · 7 · 4-10UNDER
- FG
- 4-10
- 3PT
- 3-5
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/2
- TS%
- 55.0
- USG%
- 15.4
- STL
- 4
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 5
- PF
- 5
- +/−
- +6
- PRA
- 20
2026-08-03ATLAWAY30.0MIN26PTS+REB+AST3 · 6 · 8-12OVER
- FG
- 8-12
- 3PT
- 1-4
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/3
- TS%
- 70.8
- USG%
- 20.1
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +22
- PRA
- 26
2026-08-01CHIAWAY34.4MIN15PTS+REB+AST1 · 9 · 2-8UNDER
- FG
- 2-8
- 3PT
- 0-5
- FT
- 1-2
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 28.2
- USG%
- 14.1
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- -8
- PRA
- 15
2026-07-30NYLHOME33.8MIN23PTS+REB+AST3 · 4 · 6-10OVER
- FG
- 6-10
- 3PT
- 4-6
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/3
- TS%
- 80.0
- USG%
- 19.3
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 4
- PF
- 6
- +/−
- +3
- PRA
- 23
2026-07-28PORHOME32.4MIN25PTS+REB+AST1 · 7 · 6-9OVER
- FG
- 6-9
- 3PT
- 2-3
- FT
- 3-3
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 82.4
- USG%
- 20.5
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +10
- PRA
- 25
2026-07-22WASAWAY37.0MIN24PTS+REB+AST1 · 4 · 6-12OVER
- FG
- 6-12
- 3PT
- 1-3
- FT
- 6-6
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 64.9
- USG%
- 21.7
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- +1
- PRA
- 24
2026-07-20TORAWAY31.4MIN25PTS+REB+AST4 · 7 · 4-7OVER
- FG
- 4-7
- 3PT
- 3-5
- FT
- 3-4
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 79.9
- USG%
- 15.7
- STL
- 3
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +24
- PRA
- 25
2026-07-12INDHOME29.7MIN17PTS+REB+AST2 · 6 · 3-8UNDER
- FG
- 3-8
- 3PT
- 1-3
- FT
- 2-2
- OREB/DREB
- 1/1
- TS%
- 50.7
- USG%
- 21.1
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 5
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -13
- PRA
- 17
2026-07-11PHOHOME27.7MIN27PTS+REB+AST1 · 11 · 6-12OVER
- FG
- 6-12
- 3PT
- 3-8
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 62.5
- USG%
- 20.4
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +42
- PRA
- 27
2026-07-09PORAWAY33.6MIN16PTS+REB+AST1 · 7 · 2-6UNDER
- FG
- 2-6
- 3PT
- 1-4
- FT
- 3-3
- OREB/DREB
- 0/1
- TS%
- 54.6
- USG%
- 13.4
- STL
- 3
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- +14
- PRA
- 16
2026-07-05INDHOME31.3MIN20PTS+REB+AST4 · 6 · 2-11UNDER
- FG
- 2-11
- 3PT
- 0-3
- FT
- 6-6
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 36.7
- USG%
- 25.3
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 1
- +/−
- -16
- PRA
- 20
showing 25 of 229 — every rate above is computed over all 229