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Chelsea Gray against the Indiana Fever

Averaged 12.0 points, 3.0 rebounds and 6.4 assists in 22 games against the Indiana Fever.

—

Tonight

THU · OCT 1
IND @ LVA9:00 PM ETprojected starter · 32 projected minutes
OutDana EvansRight Knee
QuestionableStephanie TalbotLeft Leg
2026 AT TONIGHT'S 1.5over in 20 of 46 games (43%)
PRICE THAT RATE NEEDSover +130 · best posted +102 · under -130 · best posted -120

Every game she played this season, tonight's excluded — no filter on her minutes.

GAMES SHE PLAYED 29+ MIN · 202638 games · 34.1 min · 1.9 threes

Tonight's projection is 32 minutes. These games were picked after the fact — by the minutes she ended up playing, which no projection can promise — so they keep her full nights and drop the ones cut short. Averages only; not a rate to read against a line or a price.

WITHOUT EVANS33 games · 33.1 min · 1.7 threeswith her (13 games): 32.4 min · 1.6 threeswith her →

Season to date, tonight's game excluded. Rates, not projections.

01

Every stat, vs baseline

hover a row for the gap against its noise
STAT
VS FEVER
FORM
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
12.0
12.1
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.7
NOT MEASURABLE
Tonight's line 12.5 · over in 10 of 22 meetings
rebounds
3.0
3.6
−0.7
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
Tonight's line 3.5 · over in 7 of 22 meetings
assists
6.4
6.2
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
Tonight's line 6.5 · over in 9 of 22 meetings
threes
1.0
1.6
−0.5
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
MEASURED
Tonight's line 1.5 · over in 9 of 22 meetings
steals
1.9
1.7
+0.2
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
no line posted
blocks
0.4
0.4
−0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
no line posted
turnovers
2.7
2.7
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
no line posted
pts+reb+ast
21.3
21.9
−0.6
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.3
NOT MEASURABLE
Tonight's line 23.5 · over in 9 of 22 meetings
pts+reb
15.0
15.8
−0.8
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
Tonight's line 16.5 · over in 9 of 22 meetings
pts+ast
18.4
18.3
+0.1
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.0
NOT MEASURABLE
Tonight's line 19.5 · over in 10 of 22 meetings
reb+ast
9.3
9.8
−0.5
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
Tonight's line 9.5 · over in 8 of 22 meetings
steals+blocks
2.3
2.1
+0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
no line posted
field goals made
4.3
4.5
−0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
no line posted
field goal attempts
9.6
9.7
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
no line posted
three-point attempts
3.3
3.8
−0.5
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
no line posted
free throws made
2.4
1.6
+0.8
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
DIRECTIONAL
no line posted
free throw attempts
2.7
1.8
+0.9
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
DIRECTIONAL
no line posted
offensive rebounds
0.4
0.4
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
no line posted
defensive rebounds
2.6
3.3
−0.7
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
no line posted
fouls
1.9
1.9
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
no line posted
usage 19.0 vs 19.5true shooting 53.8 vs 58.3minutes 32.1 vs 31.1

Baseline: form going into each game (the average of the previous 10), measured on 204 other games since 2022-05-10. Lines are tonight's most-posted line on each stat; the meetings above are context, not a pick.

02

The 22 games

threes · her form 1.6 · hover a bar
2022-07-21— 5-game mean2026-09-29 · newest
03

Why — minutes or rate

+0.06 minutes−0.59 rate  =  −0.54 total

Production, not playing time: similar minutes, 0.02 fewer three_pointers_made per minute.

True shooting 53.8% vs 58.3% (-4.5)

04

The matchup

concedes −20suppresses +2

The opponent is league-average at threes (+0.26 SD), so the matchup does not account for this.

05

Game log

all 22 · 7 playoff games, marked · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
THREES
REB · AST · FG
VS 1.6
2026-09-29PLAYOFF R1 G2
IND
AWAY
36.9MIN
2THREES
1 · 7 · 4-11
ABOVE
FG
4-11
3PT
2-7
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
45.5
USG%
16.6
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
-10
PRA
18
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1
IND
HOME
34.4MIN
0THREES
5 · 8 · 4-8
BELOW
FG
4-8
3PT
0-1
FT
6-7
OREB/DREB
0/5
TS%
63.2
USG%
21.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
5
PF
2
+/−
+27
PRA
27
2026-08-06
IND
AWAY
40.4MIN
3THREES
2 · 7 · 4-10
ABOVE
FG
4-10
3PT
3-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
55.0
USG%
15.4
STL
4
BLK
0
TOV
5
PF
5
+/−
+6
PRA
20
2026-07-12
IND
HOME
29.7MIN
1THREES
2 · 6 · 3-8
BELOW
FG
3-8
3PT
1-3
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
50.7
USG%
21.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
5
PF
2
+/−
-13
PRA
17
2026-07-05
IND
HOME
31.3MIN
0THREES
4 · 6 · 2-11
BELOW
FG
2-11
3PT
0-3
FT
6-6
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
36.7
USG%
25.3
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-16
PRA
20
2025-09-30PLAYOFF R2 G5
IND
HOME
39.0MIN
2THREES
2 · 6 · 7-12
ABOVE
FG
7-12
3PT
2-5
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
68.3
USG%
16.0
STL
3
BLK
2
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+4
PRA
25
2025-09-28PLAYOFF R2 G4
IND
AWAY
37.6MIN
3THREES
2 · 9 · 4-13
ABOVE
FG
4-13
3PT
3-7
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
44.6
USG%
22.6
STL
4
BLK
0
TOV
5
PF
5
+/−
-8
PRA
23
2025-09-26PLAYOFF R2 G3
IND
AWAY
36.0MIN
1THREES
3 · 6 · 5-7
BELOW
FG
5-7
3PT
1-1
FT
4-5
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
81.5
USG%
14.4
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
+17
PRA
24
2025-09-23PLAYOFF R2 G2
IND
HOME
30.7MIN
0THREES
1 · 10 · 2-6
BELOW
FG
2-6
3PT
0-0
FT
2-3
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
41.0
USG%
15.3
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
3
+/−
+20
PRA
17
2025-09-21PLAYOFF R2 G1
IND
HOME
33.9MIN
2THREES
5 · 4 · 5-12
ABOVE
FG
5-12
3PT
2-5
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
52.3
USG%
19.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-23
PRA
22
2025-07-24
IND
AWAY
32.8MIN
0THREES
3 · 4 · 3-9
BELOW
FG
3-9
3PT
0-2
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
43.6
USG%
14.2
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-10
PRA
16
2025-07-03
IND
AWAY
22.9MIN
0THREES
3 · 2 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
33.3
USG%
15.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
5
PF
3
+/−
-16
PRA
7
2025-06-22
IND
HOME
34.5MIN
2THREES
3 · 3 · 8-12
ABOVE
FG
8-12
3PT
2-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
75.0
USG%
19.9
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
0
+/−
+1
PRA
24
2024-09-13
IND
AWAY
30.0MIN
2THREES
2 · 6 · 7-11
ABOVE
FG
7-11
3PT
2-4
FT
5-7
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
74.6
USG%
24.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
+5
PRA
29
2024-09-11
IND
AWAY
29.4MIN
0THREES
1 · 4 · 4-9
BELOW
FG
4-9
3PT
0-2
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
53.3
USG%
21.2
STL
2
BLK
2
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
16
2024-07-02
IND
HOME
19.9MIN
0THREES
1 · 4 · 1-8
BELOW
FG
1-8
3PT
0-3
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
22.5
USG%
24.7
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
+5
PRA
9
2023-06-26
IND
HOME
32.6MIN
1THREES
4 · 5 · 8-13
BELOW
FG
8-13
3PT
1-3
FT
8-8
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
75.7
USG%
27.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
1
+/−
+7
PRA
34
2023-06-24
IND
HOME
35.8MIN
2THREES
3 · 12 · 3-9
ABOVE
FG
3-9
3PT
2-5
FT
5-5
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
58.0
USG%
15.5
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+12
PRA
28
2023-06-04
IND
AWAY
35.3MIN
2THREES
8 · 7 · 7-15
ABOVE
FG
7-15
3PT
2-5
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/7
TS%
55.1
USG%
21.5
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+12
PRA
32
2022-07-31
IND
AWAY
28.2MIN
0THREES
4 · 7 · 2-5
BELOW
FG
2-5
3PT
0-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
42.5
USG%
11.1
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+25
PRA
16
2022-07-29
IND
AWAY
25.1MIN
0THREES
1 · 5 · 4-7
BELOW
FG
4-7
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
57.1
USG%
16.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
+21
PRA
14
2022-07-21
IND
HOME
30.9MIN
0THREES
5 · 12 · 6-12
BELOW
FG
6-12
3PT
0-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
54.3
USG%
19.5
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
+30
PRA
31
every game on file — nothing hidden