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Cotie McMahon in blowouts

42 of 42 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
19 of these · baseline 23DIRECTIONAL

in blowouts (5.8 pts) against in closer games (7.3), -1.6, t = -1.17, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 2.6). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.8
7.3
−1.6
t −1.17 · resolves ±2.6
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
2.6
3.0
−0.4
t −0.56 · resolves ±1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.7
2.0
−0.3
t −0.76 · resolves ±0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.5
0.7
−0.2
t −0.83 · resolves ±0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.6
0.5
+0.1
t +0.42 · resolves ±0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.2
−0.1
t −0.55 · resolves ±0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.3
0.9
+0.4
t +1.22 · resolves ±0.7
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
10.1
12.3
−2.2
t −1.30 · resolves ±3.4
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
8.4
10.3
−1.9
t −1.27 · resolves ±3.0
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
7.5
9.3
−1.9
t −1.25 · resolves ±2.9
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
4.3
5.0
−0.7
t −0.78 · resolves ±1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.7
0.7
0.0
t +0.11 · resolves ±0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 175 (this player's own top tercile)
14 of these · baseline 28DIRECTIONAL

high-scoring games (8.2 pts) against other games (5.9), +2.4, t = 1.57, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 2.9).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
8.2
5.9
+2.4
t +1.57 · resolves ±2.9
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
2.5
3.0
−0.5
t −0.80 · resolves ±1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.7
1.9
−0.2
t −0.47 · resolves ±0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.7
0.5
+0.2
t +0.67 · resolves ±0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.4
0.6
−0.2
t −1.21 · resolves ±0.4
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.2
0.1
+0.1
t +0.65 · resolves ±0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.8
1.2
−0.4
t −1.14 · resolves ±0.7
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
12.4
10.8
+1.6
t +0.82 · resolves ±3.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
10.7
8.9
+1.9
t +1.08 · resolves ±3.4
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
9.9
7.8
+2.1
t +1.23 · resolves ±3.4
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
4.2
4.9
−0.7
t −0.77 · resolves ±1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.6
0.7
−0.1
t −0.53 · resolves ±0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 157 (this player's own bottom tercile)
15 of these · baseline 27DIRECTIONAL

low-scoring games (5.5 pts) against other games (7.3), -1.7, t = -1.28, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 2.6).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.5
7.3
−1.7
t −1.28 · resolves ±2.6
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
3.9
2.2
+1.7
t +2.46 · resolves ±1.4
MEASURED
assists
1.7
1.9
−0.2
t −0.48 · resolves ±0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.5
0.6
−0.1
t −0.34 · resolves ±0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.4
0.6
−0.2
t −0.86 · resolves ±0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.2
−0.1
t −1.04 · resolves ±0.2
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
1.3
0.9
+0.4
t +1.01 · resolves ±0.8
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
11.2
11.4
−0.2
t −0.11 · resolves ±3.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
9.5
9.5
0.0
t −0.01 · resolves ±3.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
7.3
9.2
−1.9
t −1.31 · resolves ±2.9
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
5.7
4.1
+1.5
t +1.67 · resolves ±1.8
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.5
0.8
−0.3
t −1.25 · resolves ±0.5
DIRECTIONAL
04

Game log

all 42 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 7.3
2026-09-24
CHI
HOME
18.9MIN
12POINTS
1 · 0 · 3-4
ABOVE
FG
3-4
3PT
1-2
FT
5-9
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
75.4
USG%
19.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-9
PRA
13
2026-09-22
CON
HOME
26.4MIN
13POINTS
3 · 2 · 5-8
ABOVE
FG
5-8
3PT
2-4
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
73.2
USG%
18.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+12
PRA
18
2026-09-20
IND
AWAY
8.9MIN
3POINTS
0 · 1 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
43.6
USG%
17.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+8
PRA
4
2026-09-17
CHI
AWAY
20.3MIN
11POINTS
4 · 4 · 5-7
ABOVE
FG
5-7
3PT
0-0
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
73.9
USG%
15.6
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+29
PRA
19
2026-08-28
LAS
AWAY
13.3MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
13.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
0
PRA
2
2026-08-27
PHO
AWAY
13.5MIN
0POINTS
0 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
6.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-7
PRA
1
2026-08-25
PHO
AWAY
11.8MIN
3POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
75.0
USG%
11.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
0
PRA
4
2026-08-23
POR
AWAY
17.9MIN
13POINTS
2 · 4 · 3-5
ABOVE
FG
3-5
3PT
2-4
FT
5-7
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
80.4
USG%
19.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
19
2026-08-21
MIN
HOME
16.5MIN
6POINTS
2 · 1 · 2-5
BELOW
FG
2-5
3PT
1-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
51.0
USG%
18.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-6
PRA
9
2026-08-19
TOR
HOME
18.1MIN
2POINTS
4 · 2 · 1-7
BELOW
FG
1-7
3PT
0-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
14.3
USG%
25.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
1
+/−
+2
PRA
8
2026-08-15
LAS
HOME
22.4MIN
7POINTS
9 · 2 · 3-9
BELOW
FG
3-9
3PT
0-3
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/8
TS%
35.4
USG%
19.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+3
PRA
18
2026-08-13
LVA
AWAY
15.5MIN
5POINTS
3 · 1 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
3-6
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
68.7
USG%
14.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-3
PRA
9
2026-08-11
LVA
AWAY
21.4MIN
5POINTS
2 · 3 · 2-6
BELOW
FG
2-6
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
41.7
USG%
14.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-7
PRA
10
2026-08-09
PHO
HOME
19.8MIN
13POINTS
0 · 1 · 4-8
ABOVE
FG
4-8
3PT
0-3
FT
5-7
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
58.7
USG%
27.6
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-7
PRA
14
2026-08-07
ATL
HOME
27.9MIN
11POINTS
5 · 0 · 4-13
ABOVE
FG
4-13
3PT
1-3
FT
2-6
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
35.2
USG%
23.8
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+1
PRA
16
2026-08-05
DAL
HOME
26.5MIN
18POINTS
3 · 3 · 6-10
ABOVE
FG
6-10
3PT
0-2
FT
6-8
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
66.6
USG%
23.1
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+13
PRA
24
2026-07-31
DAL
HOME
26.5MIN
2POINTS
6 · 2 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/6
TS%
33.3
USG%
8.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
+9
PRA
10
2026-07-28
CON
HOME
22.1MIN
11POINTS
2 · 2 · 2-5
ABOVE
FG
2-5
3PT
0-2
FT
7-8
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
64.6
USG%
16.2
STL
0
BLK
2
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+2
PRA
15
2026-07-22
LVA
HOME
22.4MIN
7POINTS
6 · 3 · 3-5
BELOW
FG
3-5
3PT
1-2
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
0/6
TS%
59.5
USG%
12.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+3
PRA
16
2026-07-20
GSV
AWAY
11.5MIN
3POINTS
2 · 2 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
104.2
USG%
5.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+11
PRA
7
2026-07-18
GSV
AWAY
17.6MIN
6POINTS
5 · 3 · 3-6
BELOW
FG
3-6
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
50.0
USG%
17.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+6
PRA
14
2026-07-16
POR
HOME
12.1MIN
1POINTS
4 · 0 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-1
FT
1-4
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
10.5
USG%
20.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-7
PRA
5
2026-07-14
TOR
AWAY
16.8MIN
2POINTS
5 · 3 · 0-4
BELOW
FG
0-4
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
20.5
USG%
15.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+4
PRA
10
2026-07-12
SEA
HOME
13.9MIN
4POINTS
1 · 2 · 2-6
BELOW
FG
2-6
3PT
0-2
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
31.1
USG%
22.1
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-5
PRA
7
2026-07-06
GSV
HOME
29.3MIN
8POINTS
4 · 3 · 2-7
ABOVE
FG
2-7
3PT
1-4
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
48.1
USG%
19.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
2
+/−
-9
PRA
15
2026-07-02
ATL
HOME
32.6MIN
7POINTS
3 · 2 · 2-7
BELOW
FG
2-7
3PT
2-5
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
44.4
USG%
17.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
5
PF
4
+/−
-1
PRA
12
2026-06-28
POR
HOME
20.6MIN
5POINTS
1 · 2 · 2-5
BELOW
FG
2-5
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
50.0
USG%
10.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
-23
PRA
8
2026-06-26
CON
AWAY
24.1MIN
4POINTS
2 · 2 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-1
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
34.7
USG%
14.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
8
2026-06-24
MIN
HOME
29.1MIN
7POINTS
3 · 1 · 3-8
BELOW
FG
3-8
3PT
0-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
39.4
USG%
15.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-10
PRA
11
2026-06-21
MIN
AWAY
25.6MIN
15POINTS
3 · 5 · 5-9
ABOVE
FG
5-9
3PT
4-4
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
75.9
USG%
19.0
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+10
PRA
23
2026-06-19
NYL
AWAY
13.2MIN
7POINTS
1 · 1 · 3-5
BELOW
FG
3-5
3PT
1-3
FT
0-3
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
55.4
USG%
22.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
0
PRA
9
2026-06-17
CON
AWAY
21.1MIN
2POINTS
6 · 4 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/6
TS%
25.8
USG%
11.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+4
PRA
12
2026-06-14
NYL
AWAY
20.8MIN
8POINTS
3 · 0 · 3-10
ABOVE
FG
3-10
3PT
2-5
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
40.0
USG%
20.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-21
PRA
11
2026-06-12
TOR
HOME
22.8MIN
9POINTS
2 · 3 · 4-6
ABOVE
FG
4-6
3PT
0-1
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
65.4
USG%
14.0
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+7
PRA
14
2026-06-08
IND
HOME
21.8MIN
7POINTS
7 · 3 · 2-10
BELOW
FG
2-10
3PT
0-3
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
0/7
TS%
29.8
USG%
28.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+7
PRA
17
2026-06-06
ATL
AWAY
14.8MIN
7POINTS
2 · 0 · 2-4
BELOW
FG
2-4
3PT
0-1
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
60.8
USG%
24.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-5
PRA
9
2026-06-02
CHI
HOME
25.5MIN
8POINTS
2 · 4 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
0-0
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
45.7
USG%
14.9
STL
3
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+6
PRA
14
2026-05-29
LAS
HOME
4.6MIN
5POINTS
0 · 0 · 2-2
BELOW
FG
2-2
3PT
1-1
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
86.8
USG%
28.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
5
2026-05-27
SEA
AWAY
7.6MIN
0POINTS
0 · 2 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
12.4
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+7
PRA
2
2026-05-24
SEA
AWAY
15.6MIN
2POINTS
2 · 1 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-1
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
25.8
USG%
11.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
-8
PRA
5
2026-05-18
DAL
AWAY
20.9MIN
7POINTS
1 · 1 · 2-3
BELOW
FG
2-3
3PT
1-2
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
90.2
USG%
19.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
3
+/−
-23
PRA
9
2026-05-15
IND
AWAY
30.2MIN
13POINTS
5 · 2 · 5-12
ABOVE
FG
5-12
3PT
2-4
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/5
TS%
50.5
USG%
20.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-13
PRA
20
every game on file — nothing hidden