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Mai Yamamoto in blowouts

18 of 18 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

—

Tonight

WED · OCT 7
LVA @ GSV9:30 PM ETbench · 10 projected minutes
OutJewell LoydLeft Leg
ProbableDana EvansRight Knee
QuestionableStephanie TalbotLeft Leg
GAMES SHE PLAYED 10+ MIN · 202614 games · 17.1 min · 5.3 points

Tonight's projection is 10 minutes. These games were picked after the fact — by the minutes she ended up playing, which no projection can promise — so they keep her full nights and drop the ones cut short. Averages only; not a rate to read against a line or a price.

She has not played a game without Loyd this season.

Season to date, tonight's game excluded. Rates, not projections.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
16 of these · baseline 2 (in closer games)NOT MEASURABLE

in blowouts (4.1 pts) against in closer games (6.0), -1.9, t = -1.77, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.1). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.1
6.0
−1.9
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.1
0.5
+0.6
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.3
0.5
+0.8
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.9
1.0
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.7
0.5
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.0
+0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.1
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.6
0.0
+0.6
gap is 3.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
6.4
7.0
−0.6
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
5.1
6.5
−1.4
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
5.3
6.5
−1.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.9
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.3
1.0
+1.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.8
0.5
+0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.8
0.5
+0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
4.4
3.5
+0.9
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.5
1.0
+0.5
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.1
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.2
3.0
−2.8
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
0.2
3.0
−2.8
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.9
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.3
0.0
+0.3
gap is 1.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.4
1.0
+0.4
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
3.0
2.0
+1.0
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 182 (this player's own top tercile)
6 of these · baseline 12 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (4.2 pts) against other games (4.3), -0.2, t = -0.06, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 5.1).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.2
4.3
−0.2
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.1
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.0
1.0
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.5
1.0
+0.5
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.8
0.9
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.2
0.9
−0.8
gap is 2.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.0
0.1
−0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.7
0.4
+0.2
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
6.7
6.3
+0.3
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
5.2
5.3
−0.2
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
5.7
5.3
+0.3
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.9
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.5
2.0
+0.5
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.2
1.0
−0.8
gap is 2.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
MEASURED
defensive rebounds
0.8
0.8
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
4.3
4.3
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.1
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.7
1.3
+0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
0.0
0.8
−0.8
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
0.0
0.8
−0.8
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.2
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.5
1.3
+0.3
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
2.8
2.9
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
NOT MEASURABLE
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 175 (this player's own bottom tercile)
7 of these · baseline 11 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (4.9 pts) against other games (3.9), +0.9, t = 0.52, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 3.6).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.9
3.9
+0.9
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
1.1
0.9
+0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.9
1.4
−0.5
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
1.0
0.8
+0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
1.3
0.3
+1.0
gap is 2.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
MEASURED
blocks
0.1
0.0
+0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.6
0.5
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
6.9
6.2
+0.7
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
6.0
4.8
+1.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
5.7
5.3
+0.4
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.4
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
2.0
2.3
−0.3
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
1.4
0.3
+1.2
gap is 2.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
MEASURED
defensive rebounds
0.9
0.7
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
5.0
3.8
+1.2
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.2
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
1.4
1.5
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
1.0
0.2
+0.8
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
1.0
0.2
+0.8
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.3
0.2
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
1.4
1.3
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
3.4
2.5
+0.9
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 18 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 6.0
2026-10-04PLAYOFF R2 G1
GSV
AWAY
18.9MIN
2POINTS
0 · 1 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
25.0
USG%
11.3
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-10
PRA
3
2026-10-01PLAYOFF R1 G3
IND
HOME
9.0MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
0.0
USG%
10.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+3
PRA
2
2026-09-29PLAYOFF R1 G2
IND
AWAY
9.8MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
19.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
-4
PRA
0
2026-09-27PLAYOFF R1 G1
IND
HOME
13.4MIN
4POINTS
0 · 0 · 2-6
BELOW
FG
2-6
3PT
0-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
33.3
USG%
23.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-13
PRA
4
2026-09-24
PHO
AWAY
13.6MIN
2POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
6.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
4
2026-09-22
LAS
HOME
11.1MIN
3POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-5
BELOW
FG
1-5
3PT
1-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
30.0
USG%
25.2
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+9
PRA
4
2026-09-20
SEA
HOME
20.5MIN
8POINTS
1 · 0 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
2-4
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
66.7
USG%
17.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
+12
PRA
9
2026-09-17
SEA
AWAY
15.0MIN
0POINTS
4 · 1 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
0.0
USG%
5.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+18
PRA
5
2026-08-28
TOR
HOME
22.0MIN
3POINTS
4 · 2 · 1-7
BELOW
FG
1-7
3PT
1-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
21.4
USG%
13.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+12
PRA
9
2026-08-23
TOR
AWAY
22.2MIN
9POINTS
1 · 1 · 3-7
ABOVE
FG
3-7
3PT
2-5
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
60.5
USG%
18.2
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+2
PRA
11
2026-08-20
CON
HOME
19.7MIN
9POINTS
2 · 3 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
1-3
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
65.4
USG%
16.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+7
PRA
14
2026-08-18
ATL
HOME
14.2MIN
3POINTS
0 · 3 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
1-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
37.5
USG%
12.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
+4
PRA
6
2026-08-15
MIN
HOME
16.7MIN
6POINTS
0 · 0 · 2-3
BELOW
FG
2-3
3PT
2-3
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
8.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-3
PRA
6
2026-08-13
WAS
HOME
13.0MIN
6POINTS
1 · 1 · 0-4
BELOW
FG
0-4
3PT
0-1
FT
6-6
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
45.2
USG%
24.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-1
PRA
8
2026-08-11
WAS
HOME
13.4MIN
3POINTS
0 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
75.0
USG%
7.1
STL
3
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
4
2026-08-09
NYL
AWAY
25.7MIN
16POINTS
1 · 6 · 6-11
ABOVE
FG
6-11
3PT
4-8
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
72.7
USG%
24.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-20
PRA
23
2026-08-03
ATL
AWAY
2.0MIN
3POINTS
0 · 1 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
1-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
75.0
USG%
46.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+4
PRA
4
2026-07-28
POR
HOME
3.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
15.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
-1
PRA
0
every game on file — nothing hidden