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Raegan Beers in blowouts

37 of 37 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
20 of these · baseline 17 (in closer games)DIRECTIONAL

in blowouts (5.5 pts) against in closer games (3.6), +1.9, t = 1.54, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 2.4). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.5
3.6
+1.9
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.4
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
3.1
3.5
−0.4
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
1.0
0.8
+0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.1
0.1
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.4
0.5
−0.2
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.4
−0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.0
0.9
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
9.6
7.9
+1.7
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.4
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
8.6
7.1
+1.5
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.2
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
6.5
4.4
+2.0
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.6
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
4.1
4.2
−0.2
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.6
0.9
−0.3
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
2.0
1.9
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
4.0
2.7
+1.2
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
2.1
1.2
+0.8
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
1.7
1.7
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
1.4
1.1
+0.2
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
1.2
1.5
−0.4
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
3.0
2.8
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
0.2
0.2
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 169 (this player's own top tercile)
14 of these · baseline 23 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

high-scoring games (5.2 pts) against other games (4.3), +0.9, t = 0.64, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.8).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
5.2
4.3
+0.9
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.8
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
3.2
3.3
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.9
0.9
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.1
0.0
0.0
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.3
0.5
−0.2
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.4
0.3
+0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
0.8
1.0
−0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
9.3
8.5
+0.8
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.9
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
8.4
7.6
+0.8
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.7
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
6.1
5.2
+0.9
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.1
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
4.1
4.2
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.6
0.8
−0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.9
2.0
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
3.5
3.3
+0.2
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.9
1.6
+0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
free throw attempts
1.8
1.6
+0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.2
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
1.4
1.1
+0.3
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
1.4
1.3
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
3.5
2.5
+1.0
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
three-point attempts
0.4
0.1
+0.3
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
DIRECTIONAL
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 160 (this player's own bottom tercile)
13 of these · baseline 24 (other games)NOT MEASURABLE

low-scoring games (4.1 pts) against other games (5.0), -0.9, t = -0.69, not_measurable (this sample resolves gaps above 2.5).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
4.1
5.0
−0.9
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.5
NOT MEASURABLE
rebounds
3.3
3.3
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
0.8
0.9
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
0.1
0.0
0.0
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.2
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.5
0.4
0.0
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.1
0.4
−0.3
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
turnovers
0.9
1.0
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
8.2
9.1
−0.9
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb
7.4
8.2
−0.8
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.6
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+ast
4.9
5.8
−0.9
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.7
NOT MEASURABLE
reb+ast
4.2
4.1
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.5
0.8
−0.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.5
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
1.9
2.0
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
3.0
3.6
−0.6
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goals made
1.3
1.9
−0.6
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
1.8
1.6
+0.3
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
1.4
1.2
+0.2
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
1.4
1.3
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
2.1
3.3
−1.2
gap is 2.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
MEASURED
three-point attempts
0.2
0.2
−0.1
gap is 0.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 37 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 3.6
2026-09-24
TOR
HOME
29.3MIN
17POINTS
8 · 1 · 6-11
ABOVE
FG
6-11
3PT
0-1
FT
5-5
OREB/DREB
4/4
TS%
64.4
USG%
19.3
STL
0
BLK
2
TOV
0
PF
5
+/−
+13
PRA
26
2026-09-22
WAS
AWAY
23.9MIN
11POINTS
5 · 1 · 4-9
ABOVE
FG
4-9
3PT
0-0
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
53.3
USG%
19.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
5
+/−
+1
PRA
17
2026-09-20
MIN
HOME
11.5MIN
11POINTS
3 · 1 · 4-5
ABOVE
FG
4-5
3PT
0-1
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
81.4
USG%
36.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
-12
PRA
15
2026-09-17
ATL
AWAY
17.7MIN
9POINTS
2 · 2 · 4-8
ABOVE
FG
4-8
3PT
0-0
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
53.3
USG%
30.6
STL
1
BLK
2
TOV
3
PF
5
+/−
-15
PRA
13
2026-08-30
DAL
AWAY
21.8MIN
4POINTS
5 · 0 · 2-5
ABOVE
FG
2-5
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
40.0
USG%
12.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
5
+/−
-11
PRA
9
2026-08-28
IND
AWAY
22.1MIN
6POINTS
1 · 3 · 3-6
ABOVE
FG
3-6
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
50.0
USG%
11.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
6
+/−
+3
PRA
10
2026-08-26
GSV
HOME
8.4MIN
2POINTS
3 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
53.2
USG%
15.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-6
PRA
6
2026-08-25
CHI
HOME
12.5MIN
1POINTS
4 · 1 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-0
FT
1-4
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
13.3
USG%
13.7
STL
0
BLK
2
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
+2
PRA
6
2026-08-22
LAS
AWAY
14.0MIN
8POINTS
7 · 0 · 1-4
ABOVE
FG
1-4
3PT
0-0
FT
6-8
OREB/DREB
3/4
TS%
53.2
USG%
25.7
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-9
PRA
15
2026-08-20
LVA
AWAY
13.5MIN
6POINTS
3 · 1 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
104.2
USG%
19.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
4
+/−
-12
PRA
10
2026-08-18
LAS
HOME
13.5MIN
8POINTS
2 · 1 · 4-5
ABOVE
FG
4-5
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
80.0
USG%
19.1
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
+4
PRA
11
2026-08-15
NYL
HOME
12.0MIN
2POINTS
3 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
53.2
USG%
11.1
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-4
PRA
5
2026-08-13
ATL
HOME
9.3MIN
0POINTS
5 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
0.0
USG%
9.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-6
PRA
5
2026-08-02
DAL
AWAY
14.5MIN
2POINTS
3 · 3 · 1-4
BELOW
FG
1-4
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
25.0
USG%
12.6
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-3
PRA
8
2026-07-30
CHI
AWAY
12.8MIN
3POINTS
3 · 0 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
43.6
USG%
14.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
5
+/−
-1
PRA
6
2026-07-28
WAS
AWAY
15.3MIN
0POINTS
5 · 0 · 0-5
BELOW
FG
0-5
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/3
TS%
0.0
USG%
16.9
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-16
PRA
5
2026-07-22
IND
AWAY
18.4MIN
10POINTS
5 · 2 · 4-6
ABOVE
FG
4-6
3PT
1-1
FT
1-3
OREB/DREB
3/2
TS%
68.3
USG%
20.4
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
-10
PRA
17
2026-07-19
PHO
AWAY
4.4MIN
0POINTS
2 · 0 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
20.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
0
PRA
2
2026-07-17
PHO
AWAY
3.3MIN
4POINTS
1 · 0 · 0-0
ABOVE
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
113.6
USG%
23.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-5
PRA
5
2026-07-14
POR
HOME
6.3MIN
1POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
56.8
USG%
6.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+4
PRA
1
2026-07-10
GSV
HOME
9.8MIN
3POINTS
2 · 1 · 0-1
BELOW
FG
0-1
3PT
0-0
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
54.3
USG%
18.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+1
PRA
6
2026-07-08
MIN
HOME
12.9MIN
5POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-3
ABOVE
FG
1-3
3PT
0-0
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
52.5
USG%
18.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-8
PRA
7
2026-06-26
WAS
HOME
8.9MIN
3POINTS
1 · 0 · 1-2
BELOW
FG
1-2
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
52.1
USG%
16.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+7
PRA
4
2026-06-22
CHI
HOME
5.1MIN
4POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
33.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
2
+/−
-2
PRA
5
2026-06-17
WAS
HOME
7.4MIN
2POINTS
1 · 1 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
6.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
+2
PRA
4
2026-06-13
IND
HOME
1.7MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
26.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
0
PRA
0
2026-06-10
TOR
AWAY
8.9MIN
3POINTS
4 · 1 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
79.8
USG%
8.8
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+3
PRA
8
2026-06-08
NYL
HOME
13.8MIN
4POINTS
2 · 0 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
66.7
USG%
12.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
5
+/−
-6
PRA
6
2026-06-05
CHI
AWAY
6.0MIN
5POINTS
4 · 2 · 2-3
ABOVE
FG
2-3
3PT
0-0
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
72.7
USG%
38.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
+3
PRA
11
2026-05-30
LAS
HOME
10.6MIN
0POINTS
7 · 2 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/5
TS%
0.0
USG%
7.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
5
+/−
+4
PRA
9
2026-05-27
POR
AWAY
13.8MIN
4POINTS
4 · 2 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
100.0
USG%
6.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
-6
PRA
10
2026-05-25
GSV
AWAY
6.8MIN
3POINTS
3 · 0 · 1-1
BELOW
FG
1-1
3PT
0-0
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
104.2
USG%
16.4
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+1
PRA
6
2026-05-22
SEA
AWAY
14.3MIN
4POINTS
4 · 1 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
1/3
TS%
50.0
USG%
17.5
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-5
PRA
9
2026-05-20
SEA
AWAY
27.4MIN
10POINTS
8 · 2 · 4-8
ABOVE
FG
4-8
3PT
1-1
FT
1-3
OREB/DREB
4/4
TS%
53.6
USG%
18.3
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
+12
PRA
20
2026-05-18
POR
AWAY
4.8MIN
4POINTS
2 · 0 · 2-2
ABOVE
FG
2-2
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
100.0
USG%
28.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-2
PRA
6
2026-05-15
LVA
HOME
17.4MIN
6POINTS
4 · 2 · 2-4
ABOVE
FG
2-4
3PT
0-0
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
2/2
TS%
61.5
USG%
13.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+14
PRA
12
2026-05-13
LVA
HOME
14.1MIN
7POINTS
3 · 0 · 3-8
ABOVE
FG
3-8
3PT
0-0
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
2/1
TS%
39.4
USG%
26.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
4
+/−
-5
PRA
10
every game on file — nothing hidden