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Sydney Taylor in blowouts

37 of 37 games carry a scoreline to bucket. A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

WHAT MARGIN AND TOTAL MEAN HERE

margin and total are the REALISED final scoreline, not the pre-tip market spread and total — this service holds no market lines. Mostly the same games; not the same number.

01

games decided by 10+

|final margin| >= 10
16 of these · baseline 21 (in closer games)DIRECTIONAL

in blowouts (11.6 pts) against in closer games (15.2), -3.6, t = -1.29, directional (this sample resolves gaps above 5.5). A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board. (served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season)

STAT
BLOWOUTS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
11.6
15.2
−3.6
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.5
DIRECTIONAL
rebounds
1.6
1.8
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
2.1
1.9
+0.3
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
threes
1.8
2.0
−0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
steals
0.4
0.9
−0.4
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
DIRECTIONAL
blocks
0.2
0.3
−0.1
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.9
1.3
+0.7
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
15.3
18.8
−3.5
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.3
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb
13.2
17.0
−3.8
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.9
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
13.7
17.0
−3.4
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.8
DIRECTIONAL
reb+ast
3.8
3.6
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
steals+blocks
0.6
1.1
−0.5
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
DIRECTIONAL
defensive rebounds
1.4
1.3
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
9.8
12.5
−2.7
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.3
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
3.8
5.5
−1.8
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
3.1
2.5
+0.6
gap is 0.7× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
NOT MEASURABLE
free throws made
2.3
2.1
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
NOT MEASURABLE
offensive rebounds
0.2
0.4
−0.2
gap is 1.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
DIRECTIONAL
fouls
2.5
2.6
−0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
6.1
6.0
+0.1
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.6
NOT MEASURABLE
THE LEAGUE-LEVEL RESULT

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
THIS CUT, MEASURED

A wide margin is NOT a fade signal. Served overs in games decided by 10+ were the best rows on the board.

served overs in |spread| >= 10 hit 65.9% for +18.4% ROI (n=129); gating those games out would have deleted 28 units from a 49-unit season

project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Read that the way round it is written. The instinct is to fade an over in a blowout; the ledger says the opposite, and gating those picks out would have cost more than half the season's profit. Nothing on this page removes a pick.

02

high-scoring games

combined score >= 187 (this player's own top tercile)
14 of these · baseline 23 (other games)MEASURED

high-scoring games (17.4 pts) against other games (11.3), +6.1, t = 2.03, measured (this sample resolves gaps above 5.9).

STAT
HIGH TOTAL
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
17.4
11.3
+6.1
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.9
MEASURED
rebounds
1.8
1.7
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
assists
2.4
1.7
+0.6
gap is 1.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
threes
2.4
1.7
+0.7
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.6
0.7
−0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.6
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.3
0.2
+0.1
gap is 0.5× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.4
1.7
−0.3
gap is 0.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
pts+reb+ast
21.6
14.7
+6.9
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.5
MEASURED
pts+reb
19.2
13.0
+6.3
gap is 2.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.3
DIRECTIONAL
pts+ast
19.8
13.0
+6.7
gap is 2.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.1
MEASURED
reb+ast
4.1
3.4
+0.8
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
DIRECTIONAL
steals+blocks
0.9
0.9
0.0
gap is 0.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
1.4
1.3
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
NOT MEASURABLE
field goal attempts
13.6
10.0
+3.7
gap is 2.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 3.3
MEASURED
field goals made
6.1
4.0
+2.1
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
MEASURED
free throw attempts
3.5
2.3
+1.2
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
2.9
1.7
+1.2
gap is 1.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.8
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.4
0.3
+0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.4
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
2.4
2.6
−0.2
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
6.9
5.5
+1.3
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.5
DIRECTIONAL
03

low-scoring games

combined score <= 168 (this player's own bottom tercile)
13 of these · baseline 24 (other games)MEASURED

low-scoring games (9.8 pts) against other games (15.7), -5.8, t = -2.07, measured (this sample resolves gaps above 5.5).

STAT
LOW TOTALS
OTHER
DIFF
← below baseline · above →
VERDICT
points
9.8
15.7
−5.8
gap is 2.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.5
MEASURED
rebounds
1.2
2.0
−0.7
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
assists
1.5
2.3
−0.8
gap is 1.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
DIRECTIONAL
threes
1.5
2.1
−0.6
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.1
DIRECTIONAL
steals
0.6
0.7
−0.1
gap is 0.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.7
NOT MEASURABLE
blocks
0.2
0.3
−0.1
gap is 1.0× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
turnovers
1.9
1.4
+0.5
gap is 1.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.9
DIRECTIONAL
pts+reb+ast
12.5
19.9
−7.3
gap is 2.4× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 6.1
MEASURED
pts+reb
11.1
17.6
−6.5
gap is 2.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.9
MEASURED
pts+ast
11.3
17.9
−6.6
gap is 2.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 5.7
MEASURED
reb+ast
2.7
4.2
−1.5
gap is 2.3× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.3
MEASURED
steals+blocks
0.8
1.0
−0.2
gap is 0.6× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
NOT MEASURABLE
defensive rebounds
0.9
1.6
−0.7
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.8
DIRECTIONAL
field goal attempts
9.8
12.2
−2.3
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 4.2
DIRECTIONAL
field goals made
3.5
5.5
−2.0
gap is 1.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 2.0
DIRECTIONAL
free throw attempts
2.2
3.1
−1.0
gap is 1.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.7
DIRECTIONAL
free throws made
1.4
2.6
−1.2
gap is 1.8× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.4
DIRECTIONAL
offensive rebounds
0.3
0.3
0.0
gap is 0.1× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 0.3
NOT MEASURABLE
fouls
2.6
2.5
+0.1
gap is 0.2× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.0
NOT MEASURABLE
three-point attempts
5.5
6.3
−0.9
gap is 0.9× its noise · smallest gap this sample can see: 1.9
NOT MEASURABLE
04

Game log

all 37 · click a row for the box score
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS 15.2
2026-09-24
WAS
AWAY
23.9MIN
16POINTS
2 · 4 · 5-18
ABOVE
FG
5-18
3PT
0-7
FT
6-8
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
37.2
USG%
42.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-4
PRA
22
2026-09-22
TOR
HOME
24.5MIN
18POINTS
6 · 4 · 5-12
ABOVE
FG
5-12
3PT
3-8
FT
5-5
OREB/DREB
0/6
TS%
63.4
USG%
31.0
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
3
PF
1
+/−
+17
PRA
28
2026-09-19
ATL
AWAY
22.9MIN
2POINTS
4 · 3 · 1-8
BELOW
FG
1-8
3PT
0-5
FT
0-2
OREB/DREB
0/4
TS%
11.3
USG%
22.6
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
3
PF
4
+/−
-17
PRA
9
2026-09-17
WAS
HOME
20.3MIN
12POINTS
0 · 4 · 4-12
BELOW
FG
4-12
3PT
2-7
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
43.6
USG%
33.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
0
+/−
-19
PRA
16
2026-08-29
NYL
AWAY
18.9MIN
13POINTS
3 · 1 · 4-14
BELOW
FG
4-14
3PT
2-6
FT
3-6
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
39.1
USG%
46.4
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
-3
PRA
17
2026-08-25
CON
AWAY
20.1MIN
4POINTS
0 · 4 · 2-11
BELOW
FG
2-11
3PT
0-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
18.2
USG%
24.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
2
+/−
0
PRA
8
2026-08-23
IND
HOME
17.5MIN
4POINTS
0 · 2 · 2-9
BELOW
FG
2-9
3PT
0-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
22.2
USG%
25.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-15
PRA
6
2026-08-21
GSV
HOME
18.4MIN
14POINTS
2 · 1 · 5-9
BELOW
FG
5-9
3PT
4-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
77.8
USG%
29.6
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
+15
PRA
17
2026-08-18
NYL
HOME
17.2MIN
9POINTS
2 · 3 · 3-9
BELOW
FG
3-9
3PT
1-6
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
45.5
USG%
27.1
STL
2
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
+7
PRA
14
2026-08-03
PHO
HOME
16.9MIN
14POINTS
2 · 3 · 5-10
BELOW
FG
5-10
3PT
3-5
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
67.0
USG%
26.0
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
3
+/−
+4
PRA
19
2026-08-01
LVA
HOME
29.8MIN
29POINTS
2 · 2 · 11-27
ABOVE
FG
11-27
3PT
5-11
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
50.4
USG%
41.4
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
+10
PRA
33
2026-07-30
CON
HOME
30.8MIN
14POINTS
2 · 6 · 6-12
BELOW
FG
6-12
3PT
2-7
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
58.3
USG%
19.9
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
+5
PRA
22
2026-07-22
NYL
AWAY
26.3MIN
31POINTS
3 · 3 · 9-17
ABOVE
FG
9-17
3PT
4-7
FT
9-10
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
72.4
USG%
38.2
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+9
PRA
37
2026-07-19
ATL
AWAY
27.7MIN
18POINTS
3 · 2 · 7-16
ABOVE
FG
7-16
3PT
3-7
FT
1-2
OREB/DREB
1/2
TS%
53.3
USG%
27.9
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
5
+/−
+7
PRA
23
2026-07-17
LAS
HOME
26.2MIN
19POINTS
1 · 2 · 6-10
ABOVE
FG
6-10
3PT
4-7
FT
3-4
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
80.8
USG%
20.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
+20
PRA
22
2026-07-15
SEA
HOME
24.6MIN
17POINTS
5 · 0 · 7-15
ABOVE
FG
7-15
3PT
1-6
FT
2-3
OREB/DREB
1/4
TS%
52.1
USG%
31.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
4
+/−
0
PRA
22
2026-07-12
DAL
AWAY
25.7MIN
20POINTS
1 · 2 · 9-20
ABOVE
FG
9-20
3PT
2-8
FT
0-1
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
48.9
USG%
36.7
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+10
PRA
23
2026-07-10
LAS
AWAY
20.8MIN
15POINTS
1 · 2 · 5-11
BELOW
FG
5-11
3PT
2-7
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
60.9
USG%
30.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
3
+/−
-3
PRA
18
2026-07-07
PHO
AWAY
22.7MIN
16POINTS
1 · 1 · 6-11
ABOVE
FG
6-11
3PT
3-7
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
69.9
USG%
31.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
5
+/−
-5
PRA
18
2026-07-03
LVA
AWAY
26.3MIN
6POINTS
1 · 1 · 2-10
BELOW
FG
2-10
3PT
1-5
FT
1-1
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
28.7
USG%
18.5
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
5
+/−
-7
PRA
8
2026-06-28
LVA
HOME
31.5MIN
14POINTS
3 · 0 · 6-13
BELOW
FG
6-13
3PT
2-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
53.8
USG%
21.1
STL
2
BLK
1
TOV
4
PF
3
+/−
-10
PRA
17
2026-06-26
POR
HOME
23.3MIN
29POINTS
3 · 3 · 8-11
ABOVE
FG
8-11
3PT
6-7
FT
7-7
OREB/DREB
0/3
TS%
103.0
USG%
29.9
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
3
+/−
+34
PRA
35
2026-06-24
POR
HOME
21.1MIN
14POINTS
1 · 4 · 5-8
BELOW
FG
5-8
3PT
2-4
FT
2-3
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
75.1
USG%
20.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
+4
PRA
19
2026-06-22
CON
AWAY
22.1MIN
10POINTS
1 · 2 · 2-12
BELOW
FG
2-12
3PT
1-8
FT
5-6
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
34.2
USG%
30.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
2
PF
1
+/−
-18
PRA
13
2026-06-20
DAL
AWAY
24.8MIN
18POINTS
2 · 0 · 6-13
ABOVE
FG
6-13
3PT
2-8
FT
4-4
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
61.0
USG%
29.3
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
3
PF
6
+/−
+9
PRA
20
2026-06-17
NYL
HOME
28.3MIN
24POINTS
1 · 2 · 10-16
ABOVE
FG
10-16
3PT
4-7
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
75.0
USG%
27.4
STL
3
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
5
+/−
+4
PRA
27
2026-06-11
IND
AWAY
20.7MIN
30POINTS
2 · 2 · 10-14
ABOVE
FG
10-14
3PT
4-7
FT
6-6
OREB/DREB
2/0
TS%
90.1
USG%
35.0
STL
1
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
0
+/−
+7
PRA
34
2026-06-09
ATL
HOME
3.2MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-0
BELOW
FG
0-0
3PT
0-0
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
15.8
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
+2
PRA
0
2026-06-07
TOR
AWAY
8.5MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-2
BELOW
FG
0-2
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
15.3
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
1
PF
1
+/−
-8
PRA
0
2026-06-05
CON
HOME
13.0MIN
4POINTS
1 · 0 · 2-5
BELOW
FG
2-5
3PT
0-1
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
40.0
USG%
31.2
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
3
+/−
-17
PRA
5
2026-06-02
WAS
AWAY
20.4MIN
15POINTS
1 · 1 · 6-13
BELOW
FG
6-13
3PT
1-6
FT
2-4
OREB/DREB
0/1
TS%
50.8
USG%
41.3
STL
4
BLK
0
TOV
4
PF
2
+/−
-11
PRA
17
2026-05-29
MIN
HOME
20.1MIN
7POINTS
2 · 4 · 3-9
BELOW
FG
3-9
3PT
1-6
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/2
TS%
38.9
USG%
21.0
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
3
+/−
-1
PRA
13
2026-05-27
TOR
HOME
23.3MIN
27POINTS
2 · 2 · 9-22
ABOVE
FG
9-22
3PT
3-12
FT
6-6
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
54.8
USG%
43.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
-4
PRA
31
2026-05-23
MIN
HOME
19.7MIN
11POINTS
2 · 1 · 3-12
BELOW
FG
3-12
3PT
2-9
FT
3-5
OREB/DREB
1/1
TS%
38.7
USG%
31.8
STL
1
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
4
+/−
-3
PRA
14
2026-05-17
MIN
AWAY
9.6MIN
5POINTS
1 · 2 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
1-3
FT
2-2
OREB/DREB
1/0
TS%
64.4
USG%
22.1
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
1
PF
2
+/−
-4
PRA
8
2026-05-15
PHO
AWAY
6.8MIN
5POINTS
0 · 0 · 1-3
BELOW
FG
1-3
3PT
0-1
FT
3-3
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
57.9
USG%
28.1
STL
0
BLK
1
TOV
0
PF
1
+/−
+8
PRA
5
2026-05-09
POR
AWAY
4.0MIN
0POINTS
0 · 0 · 0-3
BELOW
FG
0-3
3PT
0-2
FT
0-0
OREB/DREB
0/0
TS%
0.0
USG%
32.3
STL
0
BLK
0
TOV
0
PF
0
+/−
+6
PRA
0
every game on file — nothing hidden