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disciplined
22–30 over 52 priced bets · -11.7u · ROI -22.6% -47.5% to +2.4% · CLV +5.09¢ +4.5% to +5.7%
Not yet separable from break-even — the ROI interval spans zero, so this record is consistent with a real edge AND with none. Fewer than 100 decided bets, so it is not ranked on the gallery at all.
THE PICKS · priced bets only, newest first
Every day, every game, every miss.
Day by day
Latest 28 graded days from the same CORE benchmark shown in the headline, charts and sheet: disciplined.
22–30 · 42% · −11.73u across the last 28 days
10/240–20%−2.00u1 game
GSV @ ATL0–2−2.00u
- Jordin Canada Over 11.5 PTS10 vs 11.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
- Jordin Canada Over 10.5 PTS10 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
10/091–325%−2.24u2 games
ATL @ NYL1–2−1.24u
- Jonquel Jones Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJones stayed on court for all 38 minutes and seized playmaking opportunities in a high-usage game (26%), finishing one assist above the line despite modest assist volume. Her dominance in scoring (26 pts on elite 71% TS) and rebounding (14) kept her involved in the offense enough to reach 3 dimes.
- Rhyne Howard Under 19.5 PTS21 vs 19.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHoward's aggressive 30% usage rate and 38 minutes of run time carried her to 21 points despite shooting just 45% TS, as she stayed on the floor and forced enough volume to clear the 19.5 line.
GSV @ LVA0–1−1.00u
- Stephanie Talbot Over 5.5 PTS0 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upTalbot was a complete no-show offensively despite 21 minutes of run, going 0-for-2 from the field with a 5% usage rate—she simply didn't get enough touches or couldn't convert when she did, failing to reach even one made basket.
10/070–10%−1.00u1 game
LVA @ GSV0–1−1.00u
- A'ja Wilson Over 24.5 PTS24 vs 24.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upWilson fell one point short despite efficient shooting (9-16 FG, 6-6 FT) because she didn't get enough volume—29% usage and 36 minutes limited her shot diet just enough to miss the over by a single point.
10/040–10%−1.00u1 game
LVA @ GSV0–1−1.00u
- A'ja Wilson Over 24.5 PTS24 vs 24.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upWilson fell one point short despite 35 minutes and heavy 39% usage, hampered by inefficient 8-21 shooting (38% FG) that couldn't overcome her 8-11 free-throw production.
10/020–10%−1.00u1 game
DAL @ GSV0–1−1.00u
- Awak Kuier Over 4.5 REB4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upKuier fell one rebound short despite playing 33 minutes, held back by low usage (8%) that limited her opportunities to crash the glass in a game where she was a complementary scorer rather than a focal point of the offense.
10/011–233%−1.30u1 game
IND @ LVA1–2−1.30u
- Aliyah Boston Under 7.5 REB10 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBoston dominated the glass with 10 rebounds in 32 minutes, converting 50% of her shot attempts and drawing four fouls that kept her on the court despite foul trouble, easily clearing the 7.5 line.
- Aliyah Boston Under 8.5 REB10 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBoston grabbed 10 rebounds in 32 minutes with 4 personal fouls, staying active on the glass despite foul trouble and hitting the board for 1.5 more than the 8.5 line required. Her 22% usage rate kept her in the game long enough to accumulate boards without getting benched, allowing the rebounding total to creep over.
09/300–50%−5.00u2 games
GSV @ DAL0–3−3.00u
- Paige Bueckers Over 19.5 PTS10 vs 19.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBueckers' 10 points came on just 3-13 shooting (23% FG) despite playing all 43 minutes, as poor efficiency and low usage (18%) left her well short of the 19.5-point line. A 34% true shooting percentage—her lowest of the season—combined with limited volume kept her output at less than half her scoring threshold.
- Cecilia Zandalasini Over 1.5 REB1 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upZandalasini came up one rebound short despite efficient scoring (2-3 FG), held back by limited rebounding opportunities in just 19 minutes of play. Her 10% usage rate and relatively modest court time restricted her ability to crash the boards enough to hit the over.
- Gabby Williams Under 17.5 PTS36 vs 17.5paid over the fair numberWilliams torched the line with elite efficiency, shooting 12-23 from the field (52%) and a perfect 7-7 from the stripe while playing 37 minutes with 36% usage—nearly double the volume implied by a 17.5-point prop. Her 69% true shooting percentage and balanced scoring attack (5 threes, 7 assists) made the under an easy miss.
ATL @ WAS0–2−2.00u
- DeWanna Bonner Over 1.5 AST0 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBonner's limited 14-minute run and low 20% usage rate gave her minimal playmaking opportunity, and she recorded zero assists despite shooting efficiently, resulting in a complete miss on the over. Foul trouble (3 PF) likely restricted her floor time and prevented the ball-handling role needed to accumulate assists.
- Naz Hillmon Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon played 33 minutes with solid efficiency (56% TS) but fell one rebound short despite 16% usage, hampered by a quiet rebounding night in a blowout win (+18) where she recorded just 3 boards.
09/291–325%−2.15u1 game
MIN @ NYL1–3−2.15u
- Courtney Williams Under 4.5 REB8 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams nearly doubled the projected total, grabbing 8 rebounds across 38 minutes of heavy involvement while posting a 24% usage rate that kept her in rebounding position throughout the game. The under missed decisively due to her elevated floor time and offensive workload creating consistent opportunities on the glass despite modest scoring efficiency.
- Courtney Williams Under 12.5 PTS18 vs 12.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams exceeded the under by shooting 8-of-17 from the field (47%) and playing all 38 minutes, generating 24% usage in a game where she stayed out of foul trouble with just 3 PF. Her efficient scoring night on high volume and heavy minutes availability was the key driver in surpassing 12.5 points.
- Courtney Williams Under 11.5 PTS18 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams shot 8-17 (47%) from the field and logged 38 minutes of heavy usage (24%), nearly doubling the 11.5-point threshold despite modest efficiency. She stayed out of foul trouble with only 3 fouls, allowing her to play through the entire game and accumulate scoring opportunities that overwhelmed the under.
09/271–150%+0.08u2 games
IND @ LVA0–1−1.00u
- Chelsea Gray Under 12.5 PTS14 vs 12.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upGray's efficient 4-8 shooting (50% FG) combined with a 6-7 free-throw line performance pushed her past the under despite modest volume, as she capitalized on high-efficiency looks in 34 minutes of play.
NYL @ MIN1–0+1.08u
09/220–10%−1.00u1 game
GSV @ POR0–1−1.00u
- Kayla Thornton Under 9.5 PTS11 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton's efficient 62% true shooting on 20% usage was enough to clear the 9.5-point line, converting 4-of-8 from the field and both her three-point attempts in 26 minutes despite modest volume.
09/190–10%−1.00u1 game
PHO @ DAL0–1−1.00u
- Alyssa Thomas Under 15.5 PTS19 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThomas torched the under with an efficient 8-11 shooting night (72.7% FG), converting nearly three-quarters of her attempts from the field to reach 19 points despite modest usage at 22%. Her elite scoring efficiency—well above her season baseline—was the difference maker in pushing past the 15.5-point threshold.
08/251–0100%+0.64u1 game
CHI @ CON1–0+0.64u
08/232–167%+0.99u3 games
IND @ CHI0–1−1.00u
- Sydney Taylor Over 14.5 PTS4 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upTaylor's shot completely abandoned her, connecting on just 2-of-9 from the field and 0-of-6 from three for a 22% true shooting percentage in 18 minutes. The combination of brutal efficiency and limited playing time (likely due to three fouls) left her far short of the 14.5-point line.
LVA @ TOR1–0+0.89u
SEA @ DAL1–0+1.10u
08/201–0100%+0.74u1 game
IND @ DAL1–0+0.74u
08/192–167%+0.50u1 game
TOR @ WAS2–1+0.50u
- Aneesah Morrow Under 12.5 PTS13 vs 12.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upMorrow narrowly cleared the under despite inefficient 4-13 shooting (31% FG), getting over the line on 3-5 free-throw shooting and 23 minutes of run in a game where Chicago needed her scoring off the bench. The under missed by just one point despite below-average efficiency, as her free-throw volume and consistent offensive touches kept her just above the number.
08/182–167%+0.46u3 games
ATL @ LVA0–1−1.00u
- Rhyne Howard Over 3.5 AST3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHoward played heavy minutes (39) and scored efficiently (23 pts), but her low usage rate (26%) and primary scoring role limited playmaking opportunities, resulting in just 3 assists despite the volume. She committed 4 fouls that may have caused some caution late, but the assist miss was fundamentally driven by her offensive-centric game plan rather than foul trouble.
IND @ TOR1–0+0.63u
NYL @ CHI1–0+0.83u
08/161–150%−0.30u2 games
CHI @ SEA0–1−1.00u
- Jade Melbourne Under 5.5 AST6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upMelbourne pushed exactly one assist over the line despite inefficient scoring (4-13 FG, 38% TS) by logging 35 minutes and maintaining ball-movement responsibility in a game that stayed competitive enough to keep her facilitating throughout.
IND @ ATL1–0+0.70u
08/150–10%−1.00u1 game
LAS @ WAS0–1−1.00u
- Erica Wheeler Over 8.5 PTS6 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWheeler's efficient 75% TS masked a low-volume night: she attempted just 4 field goals in 23 minutes with 10% usage, leaving her 2.5 points short despite solid shooting splits. The lack of offensive opportunities—not poor efficiency—sank the over.
08/130–10%−1.00u1 game
ATL @ CON0–1−1.00u
- Rhyne Howard Under 17.5 PTS29 vs 17.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward erupted from three-point range (5-8) and was nearly perfect from the free-throw line (10-11), posting a 98% true shooting percentage to nearly double the 17.5-point line despite modest 22% usage. The efficiency was the story—she needed just 29 minutes to reach 29 points on elite shot-making.
08/120–10%−1.00u1 game
TOR @ DAL0–1−1.00u
- Nyara Sabally Over 13.5 PTS6 vs 13.5shots didn't fall — the read held upI can't write the note without the box-score data. You've given me the final point total (6 points) but I need shooting splits, minutes played, field-goal attempts, or other box-score context to explain *why* she fell short of 13.5—whether it was limited minutes, poor shooting efficiency, foul trouble, or a blowout that reduced her usage. Please provide the box line or key stats (FG%, FGA, minutes, etc.) and I'll write a sharp explanation.
08/111–0100%+1.05u1 game
WAS @ LVA1–0+1.05u
08/093–0100%+2.70u2 games
08/070–10%−1.00u1 game
GSV @ DAL0–1−1.00u
- Arike Ogunbowale Over 15.5 PTS5 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgunbowale was ice-cold from the field, shooting just 2-10 (20%) despite playing 27 minutes, and couldn't generate her typical scoring volume with only 21% usage as the team controlled pace in a blowout. Her 5 points fell well short of the 15.5 line due to inefficiency and limited offensive opportunities.
08/061–0100%+1.10u1 game
LVA @ IND1–0+1.10u
07/291–0100%+0.94u1 game
GSV @ PHO1–0+0.94u
07/222–0100%+1.27u2 games
07/100–10%−1.00u1 game
CHI @ LAS0–1−1.00u
- Erica Wheeler Under 5.5 AST8 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWheeler exceeded her season L10 assist average (4.7) by operating as the primary ball-handler in a blowout win (+19), tallying 8 dimes across 28 minutes despite modest 18% usage. Her elevated assist total came from increased playmaking responsibility in a game flow that favored pace and spacing rather than the slower, isolation-heavy possessions that had limited her to sub-6 assist games in recent weeks.
07/071–0100%+0.78u1 game
DAL @ NYL1–0+0.78u
Each eligible priced formula signal is normalized to a flat 1-unit outcome at its recorded price. Voids are excluded from the record, hit rate, and units. Open a day for the per-game split and loss review.