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model_matrix

109628061 over 19023 priced bets · +325.1u · ROI +1.7% +0.4% to +3.0% · CLV +1.08¢ +1.0% to +1.1%

Beats break-even — the ROI interval clears zero.

THE PICKS · priced bets only, newest first

Every day, every game, every miss.

Day by day

these are the model_matrix picks — the same set listed in the sheet below. The record in the header bar is a different formula, so the two totals will not match.

592408 · 59% · +57.67u across these days

08/0623812665%+69.53u3 games
TOR @ POR2323−7.81u
  • Bridget Carleton Over 15.5 PTS10 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Bridget Carleton Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Bridget Carleton Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Bridget Carleton Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Bridget Carleton Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Bridget Carleton Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
LVA @ IND6137+10.09u
  • Sophie Cunningham Under 2.5 REB3 vs 2.5no clean explanation
  • A'ja Wilson Over 27.5 PTS26 vs 27.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Monique Billings Over 8.5 PTS8 vs 8.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Caitlin Clark Over 20.5 PTS20 vs 20.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
  • Caitlin Clark Over 20.5 PTS20 vs 20.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
  • Caitlin Clark Over 21.5 PTS20 vs 21.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
LAS @ MIN15466+67.26u
  • Cameron Brink Under 6.5 REB8 vs 6.5**Void – DNP (Did Not Play).** Brink was ruled out before tipoff and did not enter the game, rendering the rebounding prop ungraded.
  • Cameron Brink Under 6.5 REB8 vs 6.5**Void – DNP (Did Not Play).** Brink was ruled out before tipoff and did not enter the game, rendering the rebounding prop ungraded.
  • Dearica Hamby Under 14.5 PTS16 vs 14.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
  • Napheesa Collier Under 18.5 PTS21 vs 18.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Nneka Ogwumike Over 8.5 REB7 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Courtney Williams Under 4.5 REB8 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
08/0523418156%−7.28u4 games
PHO @ ATL5267−27.15u
  • Brionna Jones Over 10.5 PTS9 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair number
  • Jordin Canada Under 10.5 PTS17 vs 10.5paid over the fair number
  • DeWanna Bonner Under 6.5 REB11 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Rhyne Howard Under 3.5 3PM5 vs 3.5paid over the fair number
  • Rhyne Howard Under 3.5 3PM5 vs 3.5paid over the fair number
  • Rhyne Howard Under 3.5 3PM5 vs 3.5no clean explanation
LAS @ CHI4736+0.68u
  • Dearica Hamby Under 16.5 PTS22 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Courtney Vandersloot Over 5.5 AST5 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Rae Burrell Under 2.5 AST5 vs 2.5paid over the fair number
  • Kamilla Cardoso Over 8.5 REB7 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kamilla Cardoso Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5paid over the fair number
  • Nneka Ogwumike Over 18.5 PTS10 vs 18.5paid over the fair number
SEA @ NYL6539+8.31u
  • Breanna Stewart Under 22.5 PTS28 vs 22.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Natisha Hiedeman Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Awa Fam Under 1.5 3PM3 vs 1.5no clean explanation
  • Ezi Magbegor Under 6.5 PTS7 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Sabrina Ionescu Over 2.5 3PM1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Sabrina Ionescu Over 2.5 3PM1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
DAL @ WAS7039+10.88u
  • Paige Bueckers Over 5.5 AST4 vs 5.5paid over the fair number
  • Azzi Fudd Over 13.5 PTS9 vs 13.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Shakira Austin Under 16.5 PTS27 vs 16.5paid over the fair number
  • Jessica Shepard Over 11.5 REB11 vs 11.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Arike Ogunbowale Under 3.5 AST5 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Michaela Onyenwere Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
08/0412010154%−4.58u1 game
TOR @ GSV120101−4.58u
  • Maria Conde Under 10.5 PTS17 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Gabby Williams Over 1.5 3PM0 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kayla Thornton Over 4.5 REB2 vs 4.5paid over the fair number
  • Julie Allemand Under 5.5 AST8 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Julie Allemand Under 5.5 AST8 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Julie Allemand Under 5.5 AST8 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held up

Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.