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model_matrix
15242–11353 over 26595 priced bets · +342.7u · ROI +1.3% +0.2% to +2.4% · CLV +1.35¢ +1.3% to +1.4%
Beats break-even — the ROI interval clears zero.
THE PICKS · priced bets only, newest first
Every day, every game, every miss.
Day by day
Latest 3 graded days from the same CORE benchmark shown in the headline, charts and sheet: model_matrix.
537–463 · 54% · −61.91u across the last 3 days
09/30254–27348%−79.28u2 games
GSV @ DAL113–176−92.26u
- Paige Bueckers Under 3.5 REB4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
- Veronica Burton Over 3.5 REB1 vs 3.5no clean explanation
- Veronica Burton Over 3.5 REB1 vs 3.5no clean explanation
- Veronica Burton Over 3.5 REB1 vs 3.5no clean explanation
- Veronica Burton Over 5.5 AST5 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
- Awak Kuier Under 0.5 3PM1 vs 0.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
ATL @ WAS141–97+12.98u
- Allisha Gray Under 18.5 PTS22 vs 18.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Naz Hillmon Under 0.5 3PM2 vs 0.5no clean explanation
- Michaela Onyenwere Under 7.5 PTS12 vs 7.5no clean explanation
- Naz Hillmon Over 1.5 AST0 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Naz Hillmon Under 5.5 PTS10 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Lauren Betts Under 3.5 REB4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair number
09/29115–8458%+3.31u2 games
LVA @ IND41–33−1.67u
- A'ja Wilson Over 27.5 PTS22 vs 27.5no clean explanation
- Chelsea Gray Under 6.5 AST7 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
- Jackie Young Over 6.5 AST5 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Jackie Young Over 6.5 AST5 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Jackie Young Over 6.5 AST5 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Jackie Young Over 6.5 AST5 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
MIN @ NYL74–51+4.98u
- Kayla McBride Over 16.5 PTS14 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 2.5 3PM4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 2.5 3PM4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 2.5 3PM4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 2.5 3PM4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 2.5 3PM4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
09/27168–10661%+14.06u4 games
WAS @ ATL41–28+0.15u
- Kiki Iriafen Under 8.5 REB14 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Jordin Canada Over 0.5 3PM0 vs 0.5paid over the fair numberCanada went 0-for-3 from three despite heavy usage (36 min, 11 ast), staying aggressive as a playmaker but unable to convert from deep; her 42% TS% and four total makes on 11 attempts indicates she leaned heavily on two-pointers and free throws instead.
- Angel Reese Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upReese recorded just 1 assist despite 30 minutes played, as her offensive role centered on scoring and rebounding (13 points, 12 rebounds) rather than facilitating—she turned the ball over only once but generated minimal playmaking opportunities in Chicago's balanced attack.
- Angel Reese Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upReese recorded just 1 assist despite 30 minutes played, as her offensive role centered on scoring and rebounding (13 points, 12 rebounds) rather than facilitating—she turned the ball over only once but generated minimal playmaking opportunities in Chicago's balanced attack.
- Naz Hillmon Over 6.5 PTS4 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon's 20 minutes and 8% usage were both well below her typical workload, limiting her to just 2 made field goals despite solid efficiency, and she didn't attempt a free throw to compensate.
- Naz Hillmon Over 6.5 PTS4 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon's 20 minutes and 8% usage were both well below her typical workload, limiting her to just 2 made field goals despite solid efficiency, and she didn't attempt a free throw to compensate.
DAL @ GSV46–32+2.00u
- Awak Kuier Over 0.5 3PM0 vs 0.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Paige Bueckers Under 18.5 PTS21 vs 18.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
- Tiffany Hayes Under 8.5 PTS21 vs 8.5no clean explanation
- Kayla Thornton Under 7.5 PTS10 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Jessica Shepard Over 10.5 PTS0 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Jessica Shepard Over 10.5 PTS0 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
IND @ LVA41–27+2.02u
- Caitlin Clark Over 22.5 PTS15 vs 22.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Kelsey Mitchell Over 24.5 PTS12 vs 24.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Lexie Hull Under 4.5 PTS5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
- Sophie Cunningham Under 6.5 PTS13 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Chelsea Gray Under 6.5 AST8 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Chelsea Gray Under 6.5 AST8 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
NYL @ MIN40–19+9.89u
- Natasha Howard Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5no clean explanation
- Pauline Astier Under 0.5 3PM1 vs 0.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Kayla McBride Over 16.5 PTS14 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Breanna Stewart Under 3.5 AST6 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Olivia Miles Over 18.5 PTS11 vs 18.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Sabrina Ionescu Over 3.5 REB0 vs 3.5paid over the fair number
Each eligible priced formula signal is normalized to a flat 1-unit outcome at its recorded price. Voids are excluded from the record, hit rate, and units. Open a day for the per-game split and loss review.