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model_matrix
10962–8061 over 19023 priced bets · +325.1u · ROI +1.7% +0.4% to +3.0% · CLV +1.08¢ +1.0% to +1.1%
Beats break-even — the ROI interval clears zero.
THE PICKS · priced bets only, newest first
Every day, every game, every miss.
Day by day
these are the model_matrix picks — the same set listed in the sheet below. The record in the header bar is a different formula, so the two totals will not match.
592–408 · 59% · +57.67u across these days
08/06238–12665%+69.53u3 games
TOR @ POR23–23−7.81u
- Bridget Carleton Over 15.5 PTS10 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Bridget Carleton Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Bridget Carleton Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Bridget Carleton Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Bridget Carleton Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Bridget Carleton Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
LVA @ IND61–37+10.09u
- Sophie Cunningham Under 2.5 REB3 vs 2.5no clean explanation
- A'ja Wilson Over 27.5 PTS26 vs 27.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
- Monique Billings Over 8.5 PTS8 vs 8.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
- Caitlin Clark Over 20.5 PTS20 vs 20.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
- Caitlin Clark Over 20.5 PTS20 vs 20.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
- Caitlin Clark Over 21.5 PTS20 vs 21.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
LAS @ MIN154–66+67.26u
- Cameron Brink Under 6.5 REB8 vs 6.5**Void – DNP (Did Not Play).** Brink was ruled out before tipoff and did not enter the game, rendering the rebounding prop ungraded.
- Cameron Brink Under 6.5 REB8 vs 6.5**Void – DNP (Did Not Play).** Brink was ruled out before tipoff and did not enter the game, rendering the rebounding prop ungraded.
- Dearica Hamby Under 14.5 PTS16 vs 14.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
- Napheesa Collier Under 18.5 PTS21 vs 18.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
- Nneka Ogwumike Over 8.5 REB7 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Courtney Williams Under 4.5 REB8 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
08/05234–18156%−7.28u4 games
PHO @ ATL52–67−27.15u
- Brionna Jones Over 10.5 PTS9 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair number
- Jordin Canada Under 10.5 PTS17 vs 10.5paid over the fair number
- DeWanna Bonner Under 6.5 REB11 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Rhyne Howard Under 3.5 3PM5 vs 3.5paid over the fair number
- Rhyne Howard Under 3.5 3PM5 vs 3.5paid over the fair number
- Rhyne Howard Under 3.5 3PM5 vs 3.5no clean explanation
LAS @ CHI47–36+0.68u
- Dearica Hamby Under 16.5 PTS22 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Courtney Vandersloot Over 5.5 AST5 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
- Rae Burrell Under 2.5 AST5 vs 2.5paid over the fair number
- Kamilla Cardoso Over 8.5 REB7 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Kamilla Cardoso Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5paid over the fair number
- Nneka Ogwumike Over 18.5 PTS10 vs 18.5paid over the fair number
SEA @ NYL65–39+8.31u
- Breanna Stewart Under 22.5 PTS28 vs 22.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Natisha Hiedeman Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Awa Fam Under 1.5 3PM3 vs 1.5no clean explanation
- Ezi Magbegor Under 6.5 PTS7 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
- Sabrina Ionescu Over 2.5 3PM1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Sabrina Ionescu Over 2.5 3PM1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
DAL @ WAS70–39+10.88u
- Paige Bueckers Over 5.5 AST4 vs 5.5paid over the fair number
- Azzi Fudd Over 13.5 PTS9 vs 13.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Shakira Austin Under 16.5 PTS27 vs 16.5paid over the fair number
- Jessica Shepard Over 11.5 REB11 vs 11.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
- Arike Ogunbowale Under 3.5 AST5 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Michaela Onyenwere Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
08/04120–10154%−4.58u1 game
TOR @ GSV120–101−4.58u
- Maria Conde Under 10.5 PTS17 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Gabby Williams Over 1.5 3PM0 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Kayla Thornton Over 4.5 REB2 vs 4.5paid over the fair number
- Julie Allemand Under 5.5 AST8 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Julie Allemand Under 5.5 AST8 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
- Julie Allemand Under 5.5 AST8 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
Flat 1 unit per priced bet, settled at the price we posted. Voids are not bets — excluded from the record, the hit rate and the units. Open a day for the per-game split and why each loss lost.