NBA · Apr 21 gameAll props Full sheet

LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets

FinalLAC 105 – DEN 102Page updated 22:37 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 7 availability alerts

Out Beal · right knee injury management (knee) · LAC

Out Ingram · right heel surgery · LAC

Out Christie · right ankle sprain (ankle) · LAC

Out Miller · left rotator cuff surgery · LAC

Out Martinelli · two-way · LAC

Out Niederhäuser · right lisfranc surgery · LAC

Out Strawther · left knee sprain (knee) · DEN

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Beal · right knee injury management (knee) · LAC

Out Ingram · right heel surgery · LAC

Out Christie · right ankle sprain (ankle) · LAC

Out Miller · left rotator cuff surgery · LAC

Out Martinelli · two-way · LAC

Out Niederhäuser · right lisfranc surgery · LAC

Out Strawther · left knee sprain (knee) · DEN

Players and minutes6 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

LA Clippers

Derrick Jones Jr. · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 6 actual

Kris Dunn · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 5 actual

Denver Nuggets

Aaron Gordon · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 1 actual

Christian Braun · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 5 actual

Jamal Murray · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 23 actual

Nikola Jokić · minutes unknown

points 27.5 → 26 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

LAC expected to win by about 1 · both teams together expected to score about 217.5 points · odds to win: LAC 1.95, DEN 1.95

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Tue 01:55 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 22:37 UTC

Who is out

Out Beal · right knee injury management (knee) · LAC

Out Ingram · right heel surgery · LAC

Out Christie · right ankle sprain (ankle) · LAC

Out Miller · left rotator cuff surgery · LAC

Out Martinelli · two-way · LAC

Out Niederhäuser · right lisfranc surgery · LAC

Out Strawther · left knee sprain (knee) · DEN

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 227 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 3 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

6 other players with a posted line

Aaron Gordon · assists 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 38.2 min · no final price

Christian Braun · points 12.5 → 5 · 7.5 below the line · played 34.2 min · no final price

Kris Dunn · points 6.5 → 5 · 1.5 below the line · played 28.8 min · no final price

Jamal Murray · points 19.5 → 23 · 3.5 above the line · played 42.2 min · no final price

Derrick Jones Jr. · points 6.5 → 6 · 0.5 below the line · played 19.2 min · no final price

Nikola Jokić · points 27.5 → 26 · 1.5 below the line · played 43.3 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

DEN vs LAC · last 38 games · DEN leads · DEN record 24–14 · average score 111.0–107.4 · DEN has won by 3.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

14 Oct · DEN 110 at LAC 122DEN lost

What each defense gives up per game

LAC gives up118.1 points · 43.5 rebounds · 27.0 assists · 37.1% from three-point range

DEN gives up112.8 points · 44.7 rebounds · 28.7 assists · 34.9% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LAC gives up 118.1 points a game · 24th of 30 · league average 113.3+4.8 vs average

DEN gives up 112.8 points a game · 14th of 30 · league average 113.3about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LAC expected to win by 1, expected total 217.5 (Tue 01:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Tue 01:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 51

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 120 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-17)ok 200 · 120 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-16)ok 200 · 122 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-15)ok 200 · 123 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-14)ok 200 · 123 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-12)ok 200 · 125 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-20)ok 200 · 160 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-19)ok 200 · 160 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-13)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-11)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-10)ok 200 · 171 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-09)ok 200 · 171 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-08)ok 200 · 171 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-07)ok 200 · 171 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 202 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 204 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 205 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 206 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 231 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 264 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 266 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 326 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 331 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 361 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 377 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 382 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 384 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 411 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 49 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 50 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 51 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 52 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 254 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 109 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 115 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 141 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 146 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 147 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 155 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 158 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 159 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 163 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 181 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 717 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 886 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.