DEN · F · 2026 season

Aaron Gordon

Next game: at MEM, Thu 01:00 UTC

BUILDING

Lines aren't posted yet. The first read is captured 24 hours before tip.

9 games played · averaging 11.2 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 11.5 · POINTS · 2019–2026

HIT RATE65.0%308 of 474 games

INTERVAL60.6%–69.1%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN-186at that rate

AT THE FLOOR-154if the rate is 60.6%

Aaron has cleared 11.5 points in 65.0% of 474 games since 2019, and in 50.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs -186 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-09

HOU

AWAY

30.2MIN

3POINTS

5 · 2 · 1-6

BELOW

FG: 1-6
3PT: 0-2
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 21.8
USG%: 15.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 5
+/−: +6
PRA: 10

2026-11-07

IND

AWAY

27.0MIN

12POINTS

5 · 0 · 5-13

ABOVE

FG: 5-13
3PT: 0-6
FT: 2-4
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 40.7
USG%: 24.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +1
PRA: 17

2026-11-04

TOR

HOME

25.0MIN

17POINTS

1 · 0 · 7-9

ABOVE

FG: 7-9
3PT: 1-2
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 86.0
USG%: 19.9
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +9
PRA: 18

2026-11-02

POR

HOME

30.4MIN

5POINTS

6 · 2 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 1-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 41.7
USG%: 12.2
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: -14
PRA: 13

2026-10-30

PHX

AWAY

29.4MIN

15POINTS

4 · 5 · 4-9

ABOVE

FG: 4-9
3PT: 2-4
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 67.0
USG%: 20.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: +11
PRA: 24

2026-10-28

AWAY

31.0MIN

15POINTS

11 · 3 · 3-10

ABOVE

FG: 3-10
3PT: 2-6
FT: 7-8
OREB/DREB: 0/11
TS%: 55.5
USG%: 19.9
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +15
PRA: 29

2026-10-26

HOME

24.8MIN

7POINTS

4 · 2 · 2-10

BELOW

FG: 2-10
3PT: 0-2
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 30.9
USG%: 22.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -12
PRA: 13

2026-10-24

HOME

36.8MIN

7POINTS

5 · 4 · 2-9

BELOW

FG: 2-9
3PT: 1-6
FT: 2-4
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 32.5
USG%: 13.3
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +10
PRA: 16

2026-10-22

OKC

AWAY

29.5MIN

20POINTS

6 · 1 · 6-9

ABOVE

FG: 6-9
3PT: 3-4
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 3/3
TS%: 85.9
USG%: 19.5
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -11
PRA: 27

every game on file — nothing hidden