NBA · Apr 23 gameAll props Full sheet

Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers

FinalMIA 112 – CLE 121Page updated 22:17 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 5 availability alerts

Out Jr. · two-way · CLE

May not play Tyson · right ankle sprain (ankle) · CLE

Out Diop · on assignment · CLE

Out Tomlin · low back stress reaction (back) · CLE

Out Merrill · right elbow injury management (elbow) · CLE

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Jr. · two-way · CLE

May not play Tyson · right ankle sprain (ankle) · CLE

Out Diop · on assignment · CLE

Out Tomlin · low back stress reaction (back) · CLE

Out Merrill · right elbow injury management (elbow) · CLE

Players and minutes7 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Miami Heat

Andrew Wiggins · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 10 actual

Bam Adebayo · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 11 actual

Davion Mitchell · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 18 actual

Cleveland Cavaliers

Donovan Mitchell · minutes unknown

points 25.5 → 30 actual

Evan Mobley · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 20 actual

Jarrett Allen · minutes unknown

rebounds 10.5 → 8 actual

Sam Merrill · Out · right elbow injury management (elbow) · listed out, then played

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

CLE expected to win by about 12.5 · both teams together expected to score about 213 points · odds to win: MIA 6.02, CLE 1.15

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Wed 23:30 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 22:17 UTC

Who is out

Out Jr. · two-way · CLE

May not play Tyson · right ankle sprain (ankle) · CLE

Out Diop · on assignment · CLE

Out Tomlin · low back stress reaction (back) · CLE

Out Merrill · right elbow injury management (elbow) · CLE

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 250 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

7 other players with a posted line

Davion Mitchell · points 11.5 → 18 · 6.5 above the line · played 36.3 min · no final price

Andrew Wiggins · points 17.5 → 10 · 7.5 below the line · played 28.5 min · no final price

Bam Adebayo · points 18.5 → 11 · 7.5 below the line · played 42.4 min · no final price

Sam Merrill · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 19.5 min · no final price

Jarrett Allen · rebounds 10.5 → 8 · 2.5 below the line · played 30.6 min · no final price

Evan Mobley · points 16.5 → 20 · 3.5 above the line · played 34.3 min · no final price

Donovan Mitchell · points 25.5 → 30 · 4.5 above the line · played 35.6 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

CLE vs MIA · last 28 games · CLE leads · CLE record 14–14 · average score 112.4–110.1 · CLE has won by 2.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

27 Mar · MIA 128 at CLE 149CLE won

25 Mar · MIA 120 at CLE 103CLE lost

What each defense gives up per game

MIA gives up120.0 points · 45.7 rebounds · 29.7 assists · 39.5% from three-point range

CLE gives up115.0 points · 46.4 rebounds · 26.2 assists · 35.5% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIA gives up 120.0 points a game · 26th of 30 · league average 113.3+6.7 vs average

CLE gives up 115.0 points a game · 19th of 30 · league average 113.3+1.7 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 54

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 90 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-17)ok 200 · 90 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-16)ok 200 · 91 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-14)ok 200 · 91 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-15)ok 200 · 93 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-12)ok 200 · 94 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-22)ok 200 · 119 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-21)ok 200 · 120 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-20)ok 200 · 120 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-19)ok 200 · 120 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-13)ok 200 · 120 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-11)ok 200 · 120 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-10)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-09)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 122 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 128 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 132 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 145 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 146 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 153 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 36 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 191 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 199 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 226 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 228 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 103 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 42 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 46 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 47 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 48 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 275 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 95 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 108 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 110 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 152 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 161 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 165 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 166 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 167 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 169 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 204 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 526 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.