NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 4 · LAC leads 2–1updated 09:05 UTC

Denver Nuggets vs LA Clippers

at LA Clippers

LAC expected to win by about 6.5 · both teams together expected to score about 211.5 points · odds to win: DEN 3.32, LAC 1.37

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 22:00 UTC

DEN 101 – LAC 99

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: DEN = Denver Nuggets, LAC = LA Clippers.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

8 players checked · 3 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 8 players have performed clearly differently and 5 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Denver Nuggetsplaying LAC

Aaron Gordon · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 14 actual

Christian Braun · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 17 actual

Jamal Murray · minutes unknown

points 21.5 → 13 actual

Peyton Watson · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 2 actual

LA Clippersplaying DEN

Derrick Jones Jr. · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 4 actual

Kawhi Leonard · minutes unknown

points 25.5 → 24 actual

Kris Dunn · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 3 actual

Nicolas Batum · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 3 actual

What could go wrong

updated 09:05 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

DEN had 149 days off before this game · LAC had 167 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 189 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 3 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

8 other players with a posted line

Peyton Watson · points 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 12.8 min · no final price

Kris Dunn · points 6.5 → 3 · 3.5 below the line · played 20.8 min · no final price

Nicolas Batum · points 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 19.2 min · no final price

Jamal Murray · points 21.5 → 13 · 8.5 below the line · played 42.5 min · no final price

Derrick Jones Jr. · points 6.5 → 4 · 2.5 below the line · played 14.6 min · no final price

Christian Braun · points 12.5 → 17 · 4.5 above the line · played 43.5 min · no final price

Aaron Gordon · points 15.5 → 14 · 1.5 below the line · played 42.9 min · no final price

Kawhi Leonard · points 25.5 → 24 · 1.5 below the line · played 39.9 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LAC vs DEN · last 38 games · DEN leads · LAC record 14–24 · average score 107.4–111.0 · LAC has lost by 3.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

19 Feb · DEN 114 at LAC 115LAC won

30 Jan · LAC 109 at DEN 122LAC lost

What each defense gives up per game

DEN gives up116.6 points · 43.1 rebounds · 27.4 assists · 34.8% from three-point range

LAC gives up112.6 points · 42.4 rebounds · 26.1 assists · 36.4% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DEN gives up 116.6 points a game · 20th of 30 · league average 115.3about league average

LAC gives up 112.6 points a game · 10th of 30 · league average 115.3−2.7 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LAC expected to win by 6.5, expected total 211.5 (Sat 22:00 UTC) and had not changed it by Sat 22:00 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 57

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-25)ok 200 · 103 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-23)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-24)ok 200 · 105 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-20)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-16)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-19)ok 200 · 107 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 109 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-22)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-17)ok 200 · 110 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-15)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-21)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-14)ok 200 · 150 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-13)ok 200 · 152 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-12)ok 200 · 153 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 157 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 161 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 162 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 165 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 166 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 167 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 203 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 306 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 309 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 1 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 312 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 313 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 17 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 32 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 50 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 54 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 60 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 67 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 68 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 70 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 73 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 77 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 242 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 502 · 403 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 199 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 239 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 273 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 710 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 537 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 545 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 550 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 615 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 679 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 776 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.