NBA · May 1 gameAll props Full sheet

Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers

FinalDEN 105 – LAC 111Page updated 21:05 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 7 availability alerts

Out Strawther · left knee sprain (knee) · DEN

Out Beal · right knee injury management (knee) · LAC

Out Ingram · right heel surgery · LAC

Out Christie · right ankle sprain (ankle) · LAC

Out Miller · left rotator cuff surgery · LAC

Out Martinelli · two-way · LAC

Out Niederhäuser · right lisfranc surgery · LAC

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Strawther · left knee sprain (knee) · DEN

Out Beal · right knee injury management (knee) · LAC

Out Ingram · right heel surgery · LAC

Out Christie · right ankle sprain (ankle) · LAC

Out Miller · left rotator cuff surgery · LAC

Out Martinelli · two-way · LAC

Out Niederhäuser · right lisfranc surgery · LAC

Players and minutes6 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Denver Nuggets

Aaron Gordon · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 19 actual

Christian Braun · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 14 actual

Jamal Murray · minutes unknown

points 20.5 → 21 actual

Nikola Jokić · minutes unknown

points 26.5 → 25 actual

LA Clippers

Derrick Jones Jr. · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 8 actual

Kris Dunn · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 2 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

LAC expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 212.5 points · odds to win: DEN 3.15, LAC 1.41

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Fri 02:00 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 21:05 UTC

Who is out

Out Strawther · left knee sprain (knee) · DEN

Out Beal · right knee injury management (knee) · LAC

Out Ingram · right heel surgery · LAC

Out Christie · right ankle sprain (ankle) · LAC

Out Miller · left rotator cuff surgery · LAC

Out Martinelli · two-way · LAC

Out Niederhäuser · right lisfranc surgery · LAC

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 204 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

6 other players with a posted line

Kris Dunn · points 6.5 → 2 · 4.5 below the line · played 10.2 min · no final price

Aaron Gordon · points 14.5 → 19 · 4.5 above the line · played 40.8 min · no final price

Derrick Jones Jr. · points 6.5 → 8 · 1.5 above the line · played 17.9 min · no final price

Christian Braun · points 11.5 → 14 · 2.5 above the line · played 40.3 min · no final price

Nikola Jokić · points 26.5 → 25 · 1.5 below the line · played 41.6 min · no final price

Jamal Murray · points 20.5 → 21 · 0.5 above the line · played 44.5 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

LAC vs DEN · last 38 games · DEN leads · LAC record 14–24 · average score 107.4–111.0 · LAC has lost by 3.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

14 Oct · DEN 110 at LAC 122LAC won

19 Feb · DEN 114 at LAC 115LAC won

What each defense gives up per game

DEN gives up112.8 points · 44.7 rebounds · 28.7 assists · 34.9% from three-point range

LAC gives up118.1 points · 43.5 rebounds · 27.0 assists · 37.1% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DEN gives up 112.8 points a game · 14th of 30 · league average 113.3about league average

LAC gives up 118.1 points a game · 24th of 30 · league average 113.3+4.8 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LAC expected to win by 6, expected total 212.5 (Fri 02:00 UTC) and had not changed it by Fri 02:00 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 51

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-17)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-30)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-29)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-28)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-27)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-26)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-25)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-24)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-23)ok 200 · 128 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-22)ok 200 · 128 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-21)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-20)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-19)ok 200 · 129 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 131 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 133 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 140 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 187 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 190 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 267 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 266 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 274 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 277 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 20 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 299 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 348 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 349 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 350 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 354 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 61 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 62 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 69 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 70 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 279 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 122 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 160 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 161 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 169 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 170 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 207 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 236 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 287 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 295 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 1094 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 2095 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1925 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.