NBA · Nov 5 gameAll props Full sheet

Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets

FinalMIA 112 – DEN 122Page updated 21:35 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes13 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Miami Heat

Andrew Wiggins · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual

Bam Adebayo · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 0 actual

Davion Mitchell · minutes unknown

assists 6.5 → 9 actual

Dru Smith · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 2 actual

Nikola Jović · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Pelle Larsson · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 6 actual

Simone Fontecchio · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Tim Hardaway Jr. · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 18 actual

Denver Nuggets

Aaron Gordon · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 1 actual

Cameron Johnson · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 2 actual

Christian Braun · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 7 actual

Jamal Murray · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 1 actual

Nikola Jokić · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

DEN expected to win by about 9.5 · both teams together expected to score about 242.5 points · odds to win: MIA 4.10, DEN 1.27

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Thu 01:55 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 21:35 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 258 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

13 other players with a posted line

Christian Braun · assists 2.5 → 7 · 4.5 above the line · played 35.3 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.40, Under 1.53

Tim Hardaway Jr. · points 8.5 → 18 · 9.5 above the line · played 24.4 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.70, Under 1.43

Andrew Wiggins · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 31.7 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Bam Adebayo · assists 3.5 → 0 · 3.5 below the line · played 8.2 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.63

Aaron Gordon · assists 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 30.8 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.71, Under 2.06

Jamal Murray · 3-pointers 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 33.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.69

Cameron Johnson · rebounds 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 23 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.97

Davion Mitchell · assists 6.5 → 9 · 2.5 above the line · played 31.3 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.55, Under 1.48

Nikola Jović · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 19.6 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.40, Under 1.55

Simone Fontecchio · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 15.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.15, Under 1.67

Nikola Jokić · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 36.6 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.94

Dru Smith · assists 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 16.7 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Pelle Larsson · points 6.5 → 6 · 0.5 below the line · played 23.5 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.71

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

DEN vs MIA · last 19 games · DEN leads · DEN record 16–3 · average score 113.4–105.1 · DEN has won by 8.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

No finished games between these teams on file.

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DEN expected to win by 9.5, expected total 242.5 (Thu 01:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Thu 01:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 58

sds history (h2h)ok · 75 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 77 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 216 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 244 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 253 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 256 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 261 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 266 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 267 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 273 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 278 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 279 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 294 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 92 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 635 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 657 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1109 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 83 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 93 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 165 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 235 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 246 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 248 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 254 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 257 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 260 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 311 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 365 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 382 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 414 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 444 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 448 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 450 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 457 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 459 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 470 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 473 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 483 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 489 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 498 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 511 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 630 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 786 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 788 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 802 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 804 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 806 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 805 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 807 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 879 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1032 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1033 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1059 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.