NBA · Finalupdated 22:12 UTC

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets

at Denver Nuggets

DEN expected to win by about 9.5 · both teams together expected to score about 242.5 points · odds to win: MIA 4.10, DEN 1.27

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 01:55 UTC

MIA 112 – DEN 122

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIA = Miami Heat, DEN = Denver Nuggets.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

13 players checked · 5 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 13 players have performed clearly differently and 4 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Miami Heatplaying DEN

Andrew Wiggins · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual

Bam Adebayo · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 0 actual

Davion Mitchell · minutes unknown

assists 6.5 → 9 actual

Dru Smith · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 2 actual

Nikola Jović · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Pelle Larsson · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 6 actual

Simone Fontecchio · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Tim Hardaway Jr. · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 18 actual

Denver Nuggetsplaying MIA

Aaron Gordon · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 1 actual

Cameron Johnson · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 2 actual

Christian Braun · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 7 actual

Jamal Murray · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 1 actual

Nikola Jokić · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

What could go wrong

updated 22:12 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 258 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

13 other players with a posted line

Christian Braun · assists 2.5 → 7 · 4.5 above the line · played 35.3 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.40, Under 1.53

Tim Hardaway Jr. · points 8.5 → 18 · 9.5 above the line · played 24.4 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.70, Under 1.43

Andrew Wiggins · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 31.7 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Bam Adebayo · assists 3.5 → 0 · 3.5 below the line · played 8.2 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.63

Aaron Gordon · assists 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 30.8 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.71, Under 2.06

Jamal Murray · 3-pointers 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 33.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.69

Cameron Johnson · rebounds 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 23 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.97

Davion Mitchell · assists 6.5 → 9 · 2.5 above the line · played 31.3 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.55, Under 1.48

Nikola Jović · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 19.6 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.40, Under 1.55

Simone Fontecchio · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 15.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.15, Under 1.67

Nikola Jokić · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 36.6 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.94

Dru Smith · assists 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 16.7 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Pelle Larsson · points 6.5 → 6 · 0.5 below the line · played 23.5 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.71

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

DEN vs MIA · last 19 games · DEN leads · DEN record 16–3 · average score 113.4–105.1 · DEN has won by 8.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

No finished games between these teams on file.

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DEN expected to win by 9.5, expected total 242.5 (Thu 01:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Thu 01:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 58

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 94 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 103 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 113 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 233 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 236 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 241 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 9 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 252 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 259 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 280 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 283 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 283 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 294 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 207 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 333 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 681 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 691 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1023 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 77 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 110 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 206 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 214 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 216 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 221 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 244 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 287 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 291 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 293 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 294 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 297 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 329 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 338 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 399 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 405 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 410 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 423 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 459 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 507 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 513 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 516 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 530 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 538 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 541 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 547 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 642 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 642 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 644 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 647 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 711 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 815 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 996 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 996 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 997 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1070 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1070 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1072 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.