NBA · Finalupdated 18:31 UTC

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz

at Utah Jazz

OKC expected to win by about 11 · both teams together expected to score about 234 points · odds to win: OKC 1.19, UTA 4.99

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Mon 00:55 UTC

OKC 131 – UTA 101

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: OKC = Oklahoma City Thunder, UTA = Utah Jazz.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

13 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 13 players have performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Oklahoma City Thunderplaying UTA

Ajay Mitchell · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Cason Wallace · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Chet Holmgren · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Jalen Williams · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 3 actual

Jaylin Williams · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 4 actual

Kenrich Williams · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 11 actual

Utah Jazzplaying OKC

Ace Bailey · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 13 actual

Brice Sensabaugh · minutes unknown

rebounds 2.5 → 0 actual

Isaiah Collier · minutes unknown

rebounds 2.5 → 0 actual

Jusuf Nurkić · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 2 actual

Keyonte George · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 3 actual

Kyle Filipowski · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 2 actual

Svi Mykhailiuk · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

What could go wrong

updated 18:31 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 251 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

13 other players with a posted line

Brice Sensabaugh · rebounds 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 6.1 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.00

Isaiah Collier · rebounds 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 6.1 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.35, Under 1.54

Kenrich Williams · points 6.5 → 11 · 4.5 above the line · played 24.4 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.65, Under 2.15

Jalen Williams · rebounds 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 25 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.63

Keyonte George · assists 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 27.8 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Jusuf Nurkić · assists 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 19.8 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.15, Under 1.65

Ajay Mitchell · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 28.8 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.40, Under 1.54

Cason Wallace · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 25.4 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Chet Holmgren · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 22.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Svi Mykhailiuk · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 33.4 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.59, Under 2.30

Kyle Filipowski · assists 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 36.2 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Jaylin Williams · assists 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 23.8 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.70, Under 1.43

Ace Bailey · points 13.5 → 13 · 0.5 below the line · played 32.2 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.65, Under 1.45

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

UTA vs OKC · last 26 games · OKC leads · UTA record 10–16 · average score 111.0–118.4 · UTA has lost by 7.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

5 Apr · UTA 111 at OKC 146UTA lost

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had OKC expected to win by 11, expected total 234 (Mon 00:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Mon 00:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 58

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 170 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 201 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 207 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 211 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 214 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 221 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 228 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 229 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 237 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 257 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 264 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 288 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 100 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 112 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 323 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 117 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 690 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 716 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1213 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 243 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 255 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 288 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 290 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 292 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 389 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 393 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 404 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 413 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 416 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 470 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 475 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 495 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 499 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 506 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 512 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 514 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 517 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 519 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 520 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 521 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 527 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 527 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 545 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 768 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 770 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 786 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 787 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 789 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 790 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1028 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1032 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1066 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1067 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1068 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1070 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.