NBA · Feb 27 gameAll props Full sheet

Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder

FinalDEN 121 – OKC 127Page updated 13:09 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes12 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Denver Nuggets

Cameron Johnson · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 8 actual

Christian Braun · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual

Jamal Murray · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 7 actual

Julian Strawther · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Nikola Jokić · minutes unknown

assists 9.5 → 14 actual

Spencer Jones · minutes unknown

rebounds 2.5 → 0 actual

Oklahoma City Thunder

Alex Caruso · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Cason Wallace · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Chet Holmgren · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Isaiah Hartenstein · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 9 actual

Jaylin Williams · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 12 actual

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

OKC expected to win by about 6.5 · both teams together expected to score about 234.5 points · odds to win: DEN 3.14, OKC 1.41

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Sat 02:35 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 13:09 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 342 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

12 other players with a posted line

Jamal Murray · 3-pointers 2.5 → 7 · 4.5 above the line · played 47.2 min · no final price

Cameron Johnson · rebounds 3.5 → 8 · 4.5 above the line · played 40.1 min · no final price

Christian Braun · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 45.2 min · no final price

Julian Strawther · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 15.2 min · no final price

Spencer Jones · rebounds 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 2.4 min · no final price

Cason Wallace · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 35.8 min · no final price

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 33.8 min · no final price

Jaylin Williams · points 6.5 → 12 · 5.5 above the line · played 25.9 min · no final price

Nikola Jokić · assists 9.5 → 14 · 4.5 above the line · played 44.6 min · no final price

Alex Caruso · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 28.4 min · no final price

Chet Holmgren · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 37.7 min · no final price

Isaiah Hartenstein · points 9.5 → 9 · 0.5 below the line · played 25 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

OKC vs DEN · last 32 games · DEN leads · OKC record 15–17 · average score 112.4–111.9 · OKC has won by 0.5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

10 Apr · OKC 107 at DEN 127OKC lost

9 Mar · DEN 126 at OKC 129OKC won

27 Feb · DEN 121 at OKC 127OKC won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had OKC expected to win by 6.5, expected total 234.5 (Sat 02:35 UTC) and had not changed it by Sat 02:35 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 55

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 162 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 205 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 269 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 423 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 429 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 433 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 437 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 444 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 495 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 499 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 500 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 502 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 519 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 356 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 522 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 165 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 220 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 258 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 262 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 265 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 269 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 270 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 323 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 326 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 333 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 387 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 388 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 394 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 396 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 401 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 404 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 408 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 409 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 870 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 417 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 428 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 433 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 437 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1213 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1214 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1212 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1667 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1215 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1213 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1214 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1217 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1253 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1253 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1310 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1314 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1313 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.