02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

03

The players

13 players checked · 5 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 13 players have performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Phoenix Sunsplaying OKC

Devin Booker · minutes unknown
rebounds 4.5 → 6 actual
Dillon Brooks · minutes unknown
points 15.5 → 18 actual
Jalen Green · minutes unknown
assists 3.5 → 1 actual
Jordan Goodwin · minutes unknown
rebounds 6.5 → 0 actual
Mark Williams · minutes unknown
points 8.5 → no final stat available
Oso Ighodaro · minutes unknown
rebounds 6.5 → 9 actual

Oklahoma City Thunderplaying PHX

Ajay Mitchell · minutes unknown
assists 3.5 → 2 actual
Alex Caruso · minutes unknown
points + rebounds + assists 10.5 → 8 actual
Cason Wallace · minutes unknown
rebounds 2.5 → 4 actual
Chet Holmgren · minutes unknown
3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual
Isaiah Hartenstein · minutes unknown
points 7.5 → 8 actual
Jalen Williams · minutes unknown
rebounds 4.5 → 7 actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · minutes unknown
assists 6.5 → 7 actual
04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

PHX had 7 days off before this game · OKC had 7 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 304 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

In 1 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.
FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below
13 other players with a posted line
Jordan Goodwin · rebounds 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 5 min · Bovada odds: Over 3.00, Under 1.36
Jalen Green · assists 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 31.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.15, Under 1.67
Cason Wallace · rebounds 2.5 → 4 · 1.5 above the line · played 20.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.63
Jalen Williams · rebounds 4.5 → 7 · 2.5 above the line · played 29.1 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.60, Under 1.47
Ajay Mitchell · assists 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 21.8 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.57, Under 2.30
Oso Ighodaro · rebounds 6.5 → 9 · 2.5 above the line · played 25.9 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.69
Devin Booker · rebounds 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 33.1 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.15, Under 1.67
Chet Holmgren · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 24.8 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.25, Under 1.61
Alex Caruso · points + rebounds + assists 10.5 → 8 · 2.5 below the line · played 13.3 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.86
Dillon Brooks · points 15.5 → 18 · 2.5 above the line · played 32.3 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.85
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · assists 6.5 → 7 · 0.5 above the line · played 29.2 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.80, Under 1.41
Isaiah Hartenstein · points 7.5 → 8 · 0.5 above the line · played 19.8 min · Bovada odds: Over 3.05, Under 1.36
Mark Williams · points 8.5 → no final stat available · DraftKings odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.75

Sign in to see your predictions checked

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

OKC vs PHX · last 28 games · OKC leads · OKC record 17–11 · average score 115.9–112.4 · OKC has won by 3.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

27 Apr · OKC 131 at PHX 122OKC won
25 Apr · OKC 121 at PHX 109OKC won
22 Apr · PHX 107 at OKC 120OKC won
19 Apr · PHX 84 at OKC 119OKC won
12 Apr · PHX 135 at OKC 103OKC lost
What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 72
sds games/date (2026-04-13)ok 200 · 18 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-14)ok 200 · 19 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-17)ok 200 · 20 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-11)ok 200 · 22 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-16)ok 200 · 23 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-15)ok 200 · 24 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-10)ok 200 · 26 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-12)ok 200 · 27 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-06)ok 200 · 31 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-08)ok 200 · 31 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-18)ok 200 · 32 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-09)ok 200 · 33 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-07)ok 200 · 35 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-05)ok 200 · 36 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 37 ms
sds history (h2h)ok · 38 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 40 ms
grading verdict/boardok 200 · 53 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 100 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 105 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 108 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 111 ms
sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 113 ms
sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 11 ms
sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 13 ms
sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 152 ms
sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 157 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 158 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 158 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 124 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 163 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 70 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 87 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 127 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 130 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 187 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 188 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 193 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 204 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 207 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 210 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 230 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 240 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 242 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 247 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 258 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 268 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 269 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 271 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 274 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 276 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 286 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 295 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 298 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 336 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 355 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 369 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 597 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 548 ms
odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 550 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 575 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 580 ms
odds game timelineok 200 · 701 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 762 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 786 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 789 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 794 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 796 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 794 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 794 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 859 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 858 ms
Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.