NBA · Scheduledupdated 09:36 UTC

Sacramento Kings vs Dallas Mavericks

at Dallas Mavericks · starts Tue 01:00 UTC

No game odds posted yet

Legacy signals · publication timing unverified

This game has no durable publication receipt. Legacy CORE signals, if returned, are not backfilled into the published record; missing signals are not a pass.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: SAC = Sacramento Kings, DAL = Dallas Mavericks.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Legacy signals · publication timing unverified

This game has no durable publication receipt. Legacy CORE signals, if returned, are not backfilled into the published record; missing signals are not a pass.

This game’s price receipt is verified. Price readiness does not certify completed recommendation generation.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Game prices observed: 2 Nov, 08:23 UTC
Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

9 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 1 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 9 players has performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Sacramento Kingsplaying DAL

SDarius Acuff Jr. · 35 min expected

points 24.5

SDomantas Sabonis · 35 min expected

points 15.5

SZach LaVine · 35 min expected

points 21.5

SDe'Andre Hunter · 30 min expected

points 13.5

SPrecious Achiuwa · 29 min expected

rebounds 7.5

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Sharp (20 expected minutes) · Mogbo (18 min) · +5 more

Dallas Mavericksplaying SAC

SCooper Flagg · 34 min expected

points 25.5

SP.J. Washington · 34 min expected

points 13.5

SKyrie Irving · 30 min expected

assists 5.5

SDaniel Gafford · 25 min expected

points 9.5

SMax Christie · 25 min expected

3-pointers 1.5

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Marshall (25 expected minutes) · Risacher (25 min) · +4 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

A saved expected lineup or availability assumption is not an official injury confirmation.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 09:36 UTC

Who is out

Out Biberović · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed Fri 22:45 UTC)

Out Simmons · right achilles tendon repair/surgery (achilles) · SAC

May not play Cardwell · left calf strain (calf) · SAC

Out Murray · left ankle capsulitis (ankle) · SAC

Out Raynaud · right knee subluxation · SAC

Out Pedulla · two-way · SAC

May not play LaVine · right elbow inflammation/soreness (elbow) · SAC

Out II · right surgery · DAL

May not play Irving · left knee injury management (knee) · DAL

Unlikely to play Aldama · right knee surgery (knee) · DAL

Out Larrea · right knee sprain (knee) · DAL

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

For 7 players (Sabonis, LaVine, Jr., Gafford, Christie, Risacher, Marshall) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 222 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your prediction

closes at game start, Tue 01:00 UTC

No predictions yetYour record: 0 won, 0 lost

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

DAL vs SAC · last 23 games · SAC leads · DAL record 10–13 · average score 112.1–113.3 · DAL has lost by 1.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

26 Feb · SAC 130 at DAL 121DAL lost

What each defense gives up per game

SAC gives up128.3 points · 46.2 rebounds · 30.0 assists · 39.2% from three-point range

DAL gives up111.8 points · 43.5 rebounds · 27.0 assists · 29.7% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

SAC gives up 128.3 points a game · 28th of 29 · league average 113.5+14.8 vs average

DAL gives up 111.8 points a game · 15th of 29 · league average 113.7−1.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DAL expected to win by 10, expected total 234 (04:51 UTC) and later DAL expected to win by 10, expected total 234.5 (09:23 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 38

grading verdict/card (price-only)ok · 44 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 57 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 73 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 73 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 74 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 76 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 83 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 95 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 99 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 158 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 162 ms

sds standings/stakesfailed 501 · 165 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 173 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 175 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 181 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 22 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 45 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 48 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 67 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 165 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 175 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 194 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 197 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 199 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 215 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 220 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 224 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 261 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 269 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 315 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 321 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 326 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 742 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 770 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.