DEN · 2026 season

Aaron Gordon

39 games played, 3 in the postseason · averaging 15.8 points. Each row is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 15.5 · POINTS · 2019–2026

HIT RATE39.8%185 of 465 games

INTERVAL35.4%–44.3%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+151at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+182if the rate is 35.4%

Aaron has cleared 15.5 points in 39.8% of 465 games since 2019, and in 40.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +151 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-04-25

MIN

AWAY

23.2MIN

9POINTS

1 · 0 · 4-11

BELOW

FG: 4-11
3PT: 1-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 40.9
USG%: 20.8
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -7
PRA: 10

2026-04-20

MIN

HOME

36.9MIN

8POINTS

7 · 4 · 3-9

BELOW

FG: 3-9
3PT: 1-4
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/7
TS%: 40.5
USG%: 11.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: -1
PRA: 19

2026-04-18

MIN

HOME

29.3MIN

17POINTS

8 · 3 · 5-10

ABOVE

FG: 5-10
3PT: 1-5
FT: 6-8
OREB/DREB: 4/4
TS%: 62.9
USG%: 20.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +8
PRA: 28

2026-04-08

MEM

HOME

22.3MIN

6POINTS

2 · 6 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 0-2
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 43.6
USG%: 13.3
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +17
PRA: 14

2026-04-06

POR

HOME

31.2MIN

23POINTS

9 · 5 · 8-14

ABOVE

FG: 8-14
3PT: 4-9
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 2/7
TS%: 73.0
USG%: 21.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +5
PRA: 37

2026-04-04

HOME

41.1MIN

15POINTS

6 · 3 · 7-12

BELOW

FG: 7-12
3PT: 1-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 62.5
USG%: 15.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: -1
PRA: 24

2026-04-01

UTAH

AWAY

28.0MIN

6POINTS

2 · 2 · 1-7

BELOW

FG: 1-7
3PT: 1-4
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 34.2
USG%: 15.7
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +3
PRA: 10

2026-03-27

UTAH

HOME

30.9MIN

17POINTS

7 · 1 · 6-12

ABOVE

FG: 6-12
3PT: 0-4
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 2/5
TS%: 58.1
USG%: 19.8
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +15
PRA: 25

2026-03-24

PHX

AWAY

26.2MIN

16POINTS

6 · 3 · 5-9

ABOVE

FG: 5-9
3PT: 1-1
FT: 5-10
OREB/DREB: 5/1
TS%: 59.7
USG%: 25.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: -6
PRA: 25

2026-03-22

POR

HOME

28.5MIN

12POINTS

3 · 4 · 4-7

BELOW

FG: 4-7
3PT: 2-4
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 76.1
USG%: 12.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +15
PRA: 19

2026-03-20

TOR

HOME

28.8MIN

16POINTS

5 · 3 · 6-10

ABOVE

FG: 6-10
3PT: 1-2
FT: 3-5
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 65.6
USG%: 21.6
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -4
PRA: 24

2026-03-17

PHI

HOME

18.9MIN

12POINTS

5 · 2 · 4-8

BELOW

FG: 4-8
3PT: 2-3
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 67.6
USG%: 24.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +17
PRA: 19

2026-03-14

LAL

AWAY

34.8MIN

27POINTS

5 · 2 · 9-16

ABOVE

FG: 9-16
3PT: 5-10
FT: 4-7
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 70.8
USG%: 28.1
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: -3
PRA: 34

2026-03-11

HOU

HOME

22.5MIN

0POINTS

4 · 1 · 0-3

BELOW

FG: 0-3
3PT: 0-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 6.1
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +17
PRA: 5

2026-03-09

OKC

AWAY

28.5MIN

23POINTS

10 · 3 · 6-14

ABOVE

FG: 6-14
3PT: 2-4
FT: 9-10
OREB/DREB: 4/6
TS%: 62.5
USG%: 27.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +14
PRA: 36

2026-03-06

HOME

21.5MIN

3POINTS

3 · 3 · 1-7

BELOW

FG: 1-7
3PT: 0-3
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 2/1
TS%: 19.0
USG%: 15.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: -7
PRA: 9

2026-01-23

MIL

AWAY

16.1MIN

13POINTS

6 · 3 · 4-9

BELOW

FG: 4-9
3PT: 1-2
FT: 4-5
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 58.0
USG%: 35.0
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +12
PRA: 22

2026-01-22

WAS

AWAY

33.4MIN

16POINTS

5 · 5 · 5-12

ABOVE

FG: 5-12
3PT: 1-6
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 56.3
USG%: 19.4
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +23
PRA: 26

2026-01-20

LAL

HOME

31.9MIN

18POINTS

4 · 5 · 6-9

ABOVE

FG: 6-9
3PT: 2-4
FT: 4-8
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 71.9
USG%: 18.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -8
PRA: 27

2026-01-17

WAS

HOME

32.0MIN

8POINTS

10 · 11 · 3-8

BELOW

FG: 3-8
3PT: 1-3
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/10
TS%: 45.0
USG%: 13.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +14
PRA: 29

2026-01-14

DAL

AWAY

29.9MIN

22POINTS

6 · 3 · 8-12

ABOVE

FG: 8-12
3PT: 3-5
FT: 3-5
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 77.5
USG%: 22.0
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +3
PRA: 31

2026-01-13

AWAY

29.6MIN

16POINTS

7 · 1 · 6-15

ABOVE

FG: 6-15
3PT: 1-5
FT: 3-5
OREB/DREB: 3/4
TS%: 46.5
USG%: 26.5
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +8
PRA: 24

2026-01-11

MIL

HOME

31.7MIN

23POINTS

6 · 4 · 7-16

ABOVE

FG: 7-16
3PT: 2-4
FT: 7-9
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 57.6
USG%: 28.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -11
PRA: 33

2026-01-09

ATL

HOME

24.5MIN

14POINTS

9 · 5 · 5-11

BELOW

FG: 5-11
3PT: 1-5
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 0/9
TS%: 54.9
USG%: 27.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -19
PRA: 28

2026-01-07

BOS

AWAY

23.4MIN

12POINTS

6 · 2 · 5-12

BELOW

FG: 5-12
3PT: 2-6
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 23.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +2
PRA: 20

2026-01-04

BKN

AWAY

21.2MIN

20POINTS

6 · 2 · 8-15

ABOVE

FG: 8-15
3PT: 0-2
FT: 4-6
OREB/DREB: 3/3
TS%: 56.7
USG%: 43.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: +1
PRA: 28

2025-11-21

HOU

AWAY

3.4MIN

1POINTS

2 · 0 · 0-1

BELOW

FG: 0-1
3PT: 0-1
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 26.6
USG%: 39.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: +4
PRA: 3

2025-11-17

CHI

HOME

32.4MIN

24POINTS

10 · 0 · 10-18

ABOVE

FG: 10-18
3PT: 1-5
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 5/5
TS%: 60.7
USG%: 25.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 5
+/−: +18
PRA: 34

2025-11-15

MIN

AWAY

35.7MIN

23POINTS

10 · 1 · 8-15

ABOVE

FG: 8-15
3PT: 4-6
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 1/9
TS%: 68.6
USG%: 21.4
STL: 2
BLK: 2
TOV: 1
PF: 5
+/−: +33
PRA: 34

2025-11-12

LAC

AWAY

30.8MIN

18POINTS

5 · 0 · 6-12

ABOVE

FG: 6-12
3PT: 2-6
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 65.4
USG%: 20.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: +28
PRA: 23

2025-11-11

SAC

AWAY

30.2MIN

17POINTS

7 · 3 · 5-11

ABOVE

FG: 5-11
3PT: 2-4
FT: 5-7
OREB/DREB: 4/3
TS%: 60.4
USG%: 23.3
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +18
PRA: 27

2025-11-07

HOME

24.0MIN

18POINTS

3 · 1 · 6-12

ABOVE

FG: 6-12
3PT: 3-5
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 65.4
USG%: 27.3
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +4
PRA: 22

2025-11-05

MIA

HOME

30.8MIN

24POINTS

6 · 1 · 9-16

ABOVE

FG: 9-16
3PT: 1-5
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 64.4
USG%: 26.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: +8
PRA: 31

2025-11-03

SAC

HOME

30.3MIN

20POINTS

7 · 1 · 6-11

ABOVE

FG: 6-11
3PT: 3-6
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 3/4
TS%: 73.3
USG%: 20.3
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +5
PRA: 28

2025-10-31

POR

AWAY

31.7MIN

14POINTS

5 · 1 · 5-11

BELOW

FG: 5-11
3PT: 0-2
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 54.9
USG%: 22.0
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: +4
PRA: 20

2025-10-29

HOME

22.5MIN

9POINTS

9 · 3 · 2-5

BELOW

FG: 2-5
3PT: 1-4
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 0/9
TS%: 66.6
USG%: 17.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +19
PRA: 21

2025-10-27

MIN

AWAY

32.8MIN

9POINTS

3 · 3 · 3-10

BELOW

FG: 3-10
3PT: 0-2
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 39.8
USG%: 17.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +8
PRA: 15

2025-10-25

PHX

HOME

25.2MIN

17POINTS

2 · 1 · 5-11

ABOVE

FG: 5-11
3PT: 1-6
FT: 6-6
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 62.3
USG%: 21.9
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +17
PRA: 20

2025-10-23

AWAY

38.7MIN

50POINTS

8 · 2 · 17-21

ABOVE

FG: 17-21
3PT: 10-11
FT: 6-6
OREB/DREB: 0/8
TS%: 105.8
USG%: 30.8
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: -1
PRA: 60

every game on file — nothing hidden