IND · 2026 season

Aaron Nesmith

45 games played · averaging 13.8 points. Each row is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 13.5 · POINTS · 2020–2026

HIT RATE26.7%104 of 390 games

INTERVAL22.5%–31.3%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+275at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+344if the rate is 22.5%

Aaron has cleared 13.5 points in 26.7% of 390 games since 2020, and in 70.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +275 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-03-27

LAC

HOME

35.4MIN

26POINTS

7 · 2 · 10-14

ABOVE

FG: 10-14
3PT: 4-5
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 87.4
USG%: 23.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 5
PF: 5
+/−: -11
PRA: 35

2026-03-25

LAL

HOME

32.1MIN

14POINTS

3 · 1 · 6-13

ABOVE

FG: 6-13
3PT: 2-8
FT: 0-2
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 50.4
USG%: 22.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 5
+/−: +11
PRA: 18

2026-03-23

ORL

AWAY

35.4MIN

19POINTS

2 · 2 · 6-11

ABOVE

FG: 6-11
3PT: 5-8
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 80.0
USG%: 17.6
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +6
PRA: 23

2026-03-21

AWAY

24.8MIN

5POINTS

2 · 0 · 2-7

BELOW

FG: 2-7
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 35.7
USG%: 13.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 5
+/−: -22
PRA: 7

2026-03-18

POR

HOME

26.3MIN

15POINTS

3 · 1 · 6-13

ABOVE

FG: 6-13
3PT: 1-5
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 2/1
TS%: 54.0
USG%: 24.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: -16
PRA: 19

2026-03-17

AWAY

24.3MIN

14POINTS

1 · 0 · 5-8

ABOVE

FG: 5-8
3PT: 4-6
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 87.5
USG%: 15.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -14
PRA: 15

2026-03-15

MIL

AWAY

28.8MIN

32POINTS

2 · 1 · 10-14

ABOVE

FG: 10-14
3PT: 7-10
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 98.8
USG%: 29.3
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: -7
PRA: 35

2026-03-13

HOME

34.4MIN

12POINTS

2 · 2 · 5-13

BELOW

FG: 5-13
3PT: 1-5
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 44.6
USG%: 19.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: -17
PRA: 16

2026-03-10

SAC

AWAY

34.6MIN

29POINTS

4 · 3 · 10-22

ABOVE

FG: 10-22
3PT: 2-7
FT: 7-7
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 57.8
USG%: 29.6
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +6
PRA: 36

2026-03-08

POR

AWAY

24.7MIN

9POINTS

1 · 2 · 4-6

BELOW

FG: 4-6
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 75.0
USG%: 11.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -4
PRA: 12

2026-03-06

LAL

AWAY

22.8MIN

7POINTS

3 · 1 · 3-10

BELOW

FG: 3-10
3PT: 1-6
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 35.0
USG%: 20.0
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -4
PRA: 11

2026-03-04

LAC

AWAY

19.7MIN

2POINTS

3 · 2 · 1-8

BELOW

FG: 1-8
3PT: 0-4
FT: 0-1
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 11.8
USG%: 21.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -19
PRA: 7

2026-02-19

WAS

AWAY

14.7MIN

3POINTS

2 · 1 · 0-3

BELOW

FG: 0-3
3PT: 0-2
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 34.7
USG%: 12.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -4
PRA: 6

2026-02-10

AWAY

36.5MIN

11POINTS

8 · 0 · 4-10

BELOW

FG: 4-10
3PT: 1-3
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 2/6
TS%: 50.6
USG%: 15.7
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: 0
PRA: 19

2026-02-08

TOR

AWAY

23.5MIN

7POINTS

1 · 1 · 2-4

BELOW

FG: 2-4
3PT: 1-2
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 65.8
USG%: 9.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -15
PRA: 9

2026-02-06

MIL

AWAY

26.9MIN

12POINTS

1 · 1 · 4-9

BELOW

FG: 4-9
3PT: 2-6
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 60.7
USG%: 21.8
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +9
PRA: 14

2026-02-02

HOU

HOME

32.5MIN

17POINTS

6 · 2 · 6-13

ABOVE

FG: 6-13
3PT: 3-7
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 59.4
USG%: 21.3
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -6
PRA: 25

2026-01-31

ATL

HOME

33.5MIN

23POINTS

1 · 1 · 8-10

ABOVE

FG: 8-10
3PT: 3-4
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 97.8
USG%: 16.3
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: -1
PRA: 25

2026-01-28

CHI

HOME

34.0MIN

14POINTS

4 · 4 · 5-9

ABOVE

FG: 5-9
3PT: 3-5
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 74.2
USG%: 13.1
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +13
PRA: 22

2026-01-26

ATL

AWAY

29.2MIN

18POINTS

2 · 4 · 6-11

ABOVE

FG: 6-11
3PT: 3-6
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 70.5
USG%: 21.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: +3
PRA: 24

2026-01-23

OKC

AWAY

36.1MIN

17POINTS

5 · 5 · 7-14

ABOVE

FG: 7-14
3PT: 3-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 60.7
USG%: 18.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: 0
PRA: 27

2026-01-21

BOS

AWAY

28.5MIN

6POINTS

3 · 4 · 3-9

BELOW

FG: 3-9
3PT: 0-4
FT: 0-1
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 31.8
USG%: 15.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -28
PRA: 13

2026-01-19

PHI

AWAY

32.4MIN

7POINTS

11 · 1 · 1-9

BELOW

FG: 1-9
3PT: 0-6
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 3/8
TS%: 31.3
USG%: 22.7
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 6
PF: 4
+/−: -10
PRA: 19

2026-01-16

HOME

33.0MIN

12POINTS

4 · 1 · 5-13

BELOW

FG: 5-13
3PT: 2-8
FT: 0-1
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 44.6
USG%: 17.3
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: -4
PRA: 17

2026-01-14

TOR

HOME

30.6MIN

6POINTS

5 · 2 · 1-12

BELOW

FG: 1-12
3PT: 0-8
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 3/2
TS%: 21.8
USG%: 25.4
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 2
+/−: -25
PRA: 13

2026-01-12

BOS

HOME

32.4MIN

6POINTS

5 · 2 · 2-9

BELOW

FG: 2-9
3PT: 2-6
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 33.3
USG%: 15.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -8
PRA: 13

2026-01-10

MIA

HOME

27.2MIN

12POINTS

9 · 2 · 4-12

BELOW

FG: 4-12
3PT: 1-5
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 4/5
TS%: 43.6
USG%: 21.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +16
PRA: 23

2026-01-08

CHA

AWAY

35.2MIN

16POINTS

5 · 2 · 5-12

ABOVE

FG: 5-12
3PT: 3-7
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 60.1
USG%: 19.0
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: +17
PRA: 23

2026-01-06

CLE

HOME

33.1MIN

14POINTS

8 · 4 · 5-17

ABOVE

FG: 5-17
3PT: 3-7
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 2/6
TS%: 39.1
USG%: 25.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +8
PRA: 26

2026-01-04

ORL

AWAY

34.1MIN

25POINTS

4 · 8 · 8-16

ABOVE

FG: 8-16
3PT: 5-11
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 70.4
USG%: 28.6
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 4
PF: 4
+/−: -8
PRA: 37

2026-01-02

HOME

29.1MIN

9POINTS

3 · 3 · 3-6

BELOW

FG: 3-6
3PT: 1-2
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 65.4
USG%: 15.3
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 6
+/−: +2
PRA: 15

2025-12-31

ORL

HOME

31.6MIN

9POINTS

10 · 0 · 3-11

BELOW

FG: 3-11
3PT: 2-6
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 3/7
TS%: 37.9
USG%: 16.0
STL: 3
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: +10
PRA: 19

2025-12-29

HOU

AWAY

23.7MIN

14POINTS

3 · 3 · 5-8

ABOVE

FG: 5-8
3PT: 4-6
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 87.5
USG%: 17.2
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -10
PRA: 20

2025-12-27

MIA

AWAY

19.2MIN

9POINTS

5 · 1 · 3-9

BELOW

FG: 3-9
3PT: 3-8
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 19.8
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -26
PRA: 15

2025-11-13

PHX

AWAY

20.1MIN

10POINTS

3 · 1 · 3-9

BELOW

FG: 3-9
3PT: 1-3
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 48.4
USG%: 21.9
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -4
PRA: 14

2025-11-11

UTAH

AWAY

31.9MIN

17POINTS

4 · 7 · 5-14

ABOVE

FG: 5-14
3PT: 4-9
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 55.5
USG%: 19.2
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: -10
PRA: 28

2025-11-08

DEN

AWAY

26.2MIN

25POINTS

1 · 0 · 7-10

ABOVE

FG: 7-10
3PT: 3-4
FT: 8-8
OREB/DREB: 1/0
TS%: 92.5
USG%: 22.4
STL: 4
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +1
PRA: 26

2025-11-05

BKN

HOME

32.2MIN

15POINTS

7 · 2 · 6-17

ABOVE

FG: 6-17
3PT: 3-9
FT: 0-1
OREB/DREB: 5/2
TS%: 43.0
USG%: 25.3
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: -6
PRA: 24

2025-11-03

MIL

HOME

33.8MIN

17POINTS

7 · 1 · 5-16

ABOVE

FG: 5-16
3PT: 2-9
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 3/4
TS%: 45.6
USG%: 23.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -9
PRA: 25

2025-11-01

HOME

35.1MIN

31POINTS

6 · 1 · 10-19

ABOVE

FG: 10-19
3PT: 5-11
FT: 6-6
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 71.6
USG%: 27.3
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +13
PRA: 38

2025-10-31

ATL

HOME

25.2MIN

12POINTS

2 · 1 · 3-11

BELOW

FG: 3-11
3PT: 2-8
FT: 4-5
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 45.5
USG%: 20.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -17
PRA: 15

2025-10-29

DAL

AWAY

36.9MIN

5POINTS

3 · 1 · 2-16

BELOW

FG: 2-16
3PT: 1-9
FT: 0-2
OREB/DREB: 2/1
TS%: 14.8
USG%: 17.9
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -4
PRA: 9

2025-10-26

MIN

AWAY

35.4MIN

18POINTS

8 · 2 · 6-17

ABOVE

FG: 6-17
3PT: 5-12
FT: 1-3
OREB/DREB: 4/4
TS%: 49.1
USG%: 20.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +7
PRA: 28

2025-10-25

MEM

AWAY

31.2MIN

15POINTS

1 · 1 · 5-11

ABOVE

FG: 5-11
3PT: 4-6
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 63.1
USG%: 16.3
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -10
PRA: 17

2025-10-23

OKC

HOME

26.8MIN

5POINTS

7 · 0 · 2-7

BELOW

FG: 2-7
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/7
TS%: 35.7
USG%: 12.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 6
+/−: -4
PRA: 12

every game on file — nothing hidden