IND · G-F · 2026 season
Aaron Nesmith
9 games played · averaging 12.8 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.
OVER 12.5 · POINTS · 2020–2026
HIT RATE32.1%128 of 399 games
INTERVAL27.7%–36.8%95% confidence
BREAK-EVEN+211at that rate
AT THE FLOOR+261if the rate is 27.7%
Aaron has cleared 12.5 points in 32.1% of 399 games since 2020, and in 60.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +211 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.
DATE
OPP
H/A
MIN
POINTS
REB · AST · FG
VS AVG
›2026-11-09
DAL
AWAY
34.1MIN
18POINTS
2 · 2 · 5-14
ABOVE
- FG
- 5-14
- 3PT
- 4-10
- FT
- 4-6
- OREB/DREB
- 0/2
- TS%
- 54.1
- USG%
- 24.4
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- -5
- PRA
- 22
›2026-11-07
DEN
HOME
27.2MIN
8POINTS
5 · 1 · 3-11
BELOW
- FG
- 3-11
- 3PT
- 2-7
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/5
- TS%
- 36.4
- USG%
- 21.9
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 5
- +/−
- -10
- PRA
- 14
›2026-11-04
MEM
AWAY
30.3MIN
16POINTS
2 · 2 · 7-16
ABOVE
- FG
- 7-16
- 3PT
- 2-6
- FT
- 0-1
- OREB/DREB
- 0/2
- TS%
- 48.7
- USG%
- 25.0
- STL
- 3
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- 0
- PRA
- 20
›2026-11-01
BKN
HOME
30.3MIN
11POINTS
3 · 4 · 3-8
BELOW
- FG
- 3-8
- 3PT
- 0-4
- FT
- 5-6
- OREB/DREB
- 1/2
- TS%
- 51.7
- USG%
- 22.2
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 3
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- -15
- PRA
- 18
›2026-10-30
MIA
AWAY
21.0MIN
9POINTS
3 · 2 · 2-4
BELOW
- FG
- 2-4
- 3PT
- 1-3
- FT
- 4-4
- OREB/DREB
- 1/2
- TS%
- 78.1
- USG%
- 13.3
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- -25
- PRA
- 14
›2026-10-28
PHI
HOME
26.8MIN
18POINTS
2 · 1 · 5-16
ABOVE
- FG
- 5-16
- 3PT
- 3-9
- FT
- 5-5
- OREB/DREB
- 1/1
- TS%
- 49.5
- USG%
- 30.8
- STL
- 2
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 3
- +/−
- +1
- PRA
- 21
›2026-10-26
MIL
AWAY
20.8MIN
13POINTS
0 · 1 · 5-11
ABOVE
- FG
- 5-11
- 3PT
- 3-7
- FT
- 0-0
- OREB/DREB
- 0/0
- TS%
- 59.1
- USG%
- 23.7
- STL
- 1
- BLK
- 1
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 2
- +/−
- +1
- PRA
- 14
›2026-10-25
BKN
AWAY
19.4MIN
13POINTS
1 · 2 · 5-10
ABOVE
- FG
- 5-10
- 3PT
- 2-5
- FT
- 1-1
- OREB/DREB
- 1/0
- TS%
- 62.3
- USG%
- 28.3
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 2
- PF
- 0
- +/−
- +13
- PRA
- 16
›2026-10-23
DAL
HOME
20.1MIN
9POINTS
4 · 1 · 2-7
BELOW
- FG
- 2-7
- 3PT
- 1-5
- FT
- 4-6
- OREB/DREB
- 0/4
- TS%
- 46.7
- USG%
- 21.3
- STL
- 0
- BLK
- 0
- TOV
- 1
- PF
- 4
- +/−
- -11
- PRA
- 14