WAS · 2026 season

Alex Sarr

48 games played · averaging 16.3 points. Each row is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 16.5 · POINTS · 2024–2026

HIT RATE33.3%38 of 114 games

INTERVAL25.3%–42.4%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+200at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+295if the rate is 25.3%

Alex has cleared 16.5 points in 33.3% of 114 games since 2024, and in 10.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +200 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-03-27

AWAY

22.5MIN

8POINTS

9 · 3 · 3-10

BELOW

FG: 3-10
3PT: 1-4
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 2/7
TS%: 36.8
USG%: 23.0
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 6
+/−: -8
PRA: 20

2026-03-21

OKC

HOME

22.0MIN

14POINTS

5 · 8 · 5-12

BELOW

FG: 5-12
3PT: 2-5
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 54.3
USG%: 30.4
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: +4
PRA: 27

2026-03-19

DET

HOME

21.4MIN

2POINTS

3 · 2 · 1-12

BELOW

FG: 1-12
3PT: 0-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 8.3
USG%: 29.6
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: -9
PRA: 7

2026-03-14

BOS

AWAY

22.1MIN

4POINTS

5 · 0 · 1-9

BELOW

FG: 1-9
3PT: 1-5
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 20.2
USG%: 26.8
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: -25
PRA: 9

2026-03-12

ORL

AWAY

23.1MIN

16POINTS

4 · 0 · 6-12

BELOW

FG: 6-12
3PT: 1-4
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 58.1
USG%: 25.9
STL: 2
BLK: 5
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: -14
PRA: 20

2026-03-10

MIA

AWAY

19.7MIN

28POINTS

6 · 1 · 12-19

ABOVE

FG: 12-19
3PT: 4-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 73.7
USG%: 39.1
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -9
PRA: 35

2026-03-08

AWAY

17.6MIN

7POINTS

4 · 1 · 3-7

BELOW

FG: 3-7
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 18.2
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -2
PRA: 12

2026-02-08

MIA

HOME

25.8MIN

12POINTS

12 · 5 · 6-13

BELOW

FG: 6-13
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-2
OREB/DREB: 0/12
TS%: 43.2
USG%: 23.3
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 5
+/−: -5
PRA: 29

2026-02-05

DET

AWAY

18.0MIN

12POINTS

6 · 1 · 5-10

BELOW

FG: 5-10
3PT: 2-4
FT: 0-1
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 57.5
USG%: 26.5
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +2
PRA: 19

2026-02-03

HOME

24.5MIN

11POINTS

9 · 3 · 4-11

BELOW

FG: 4-11
3PT: 1-3
FT: 2-4
OREB/DREB: 3/6
TS%: 43.1
USG%: 25.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -31
PRA: 23

2026-01-30

LAL

HOME

28.3MIN

16POINTS

6 · 5 · 8-14

BELOW

FG: 8-14
3PT: 0-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 3/3
TS%: 57.1
USG%: 21.0
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -30
PRA: 27

2026-01-29

MIL

HOME

31.5MIN

16POINTS

17 · 2 · 6-13

BELOW

FG: 6-13
3PT: 1-3
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 7/10
TS%: 54.2
USG%: 21.1
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +3
PRA: 35

2026-01-27

POR

HOME

36.1MIN

29POINTS

12 · 3 · 11-29

ABOVE

FG: 11-29
3PT: 3-9
FT: 4-5
OREB/DREB: 6/6
TS%: 46.5
USG%: 36.7
STL: 2
BLK: 6
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +16
PRA: 44

2026-01-24

CHA

AWAY

37.3MIN

24POINTS

4 · 1 · 11-19

ABOVE

FG: 11-19
3PT: 1-3
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 3/1
TS%: 61.7
USG%: 24.4
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -16
PRA: 29

2026-01-22

DEN

HOME

36.5MIN

15POINTS

8 · 4 · 5-13

BELOW

FG: 5-13
3PT: 0-1
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 2/6
TS%: 48.0
USG%: 18.9
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -9
PRA: 27

2026-01-19

LAC

HOME

30.9MIN

28POINTS

6 · 2 · 10-19

ABOVE

FG: 10-19
3PT: 2-5
FT: 6-6
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 64.7
USG%: 29.3
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +11
PRA: 36

2026-01-17

DEN

AWAY

28.3MIN

16POINTS

8 · 1 · 7-12

BELOW

FG: 7-12
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-7
OREB/DREB: 2/6
TS%: 53.1
USG%: 24.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: -8
PRA: 25

2026-01-16

SAC

AWAY

27.7MIN

19POINTS

4 · 3 · 8-12

ABOVE

FG: 8-12
3PT: 0-0
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 69.0
USG%: 24.8
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 0
+/−: -5
PRA: 26

2026-01-14

LAC

AWAY

13.3MIN

4POINTS

1 · 1 · 2-7

BELOW

FG: 2-7
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/0
TS%: 28.6
USG%: 29.9
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -6
PRA: 6

2026-01-11

PHX

AWAY

27.7MIN

19POINTS

15 · 1 · 7-15

ABOVE

FG: 7-15
3PT: 0-2
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 1/14
TS%: 55.2
USG%: 28.7
STL: 1
BLK: 3
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: -10
PRA: 35

2026-01-09

HOME

25.2MIN

14POINTS

1 · 3 · 5-11

BELOW

FG: 5-11
3PT: 0-2
FT: 4-8
OREB/DREB: 1/0
TS%: 48.2
USG%: 27.7
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: -31
PRA: 18

2026-01-07

PHI

AWAY

26.8MIN

15POINTS

7 · 3 · 6-8

BELOW

FG: 6-8
3PT: 1-1
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 2/5
TS%: 84.5
USG%: 20.3
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 2
+/−: -24
PRA: 25

2026-01-06

ORL

HOME

30.9MIN

23POINTS

7 · 2 · 7-14

ABOVE

FG: 7-14
3PT: 2-5
FT: 7-7
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 67.3
USG%: 24.5
STL: 1
BLK: 5
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: +23
PRA: 32

2026-01-04

MIN

HOME

26.0MIN

7POINTS

3 · 4 · 3-10

BELOW

FG: 3-10
3PT: 1-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 35.0
USG%: 19.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -16
PRA: 14

2026-01-02

BKN

HOME

28.6MIN

19POINTS

5 · 4 · 8-15

ABOVE

FG: 8-15
3PT: 1-2
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 59.8
USG%: 24.2
STL: 0
BLK: 4
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -1
PRA: 28

2025-12-31

MIL

AWAY

28.4MIN

20POINTS

11 · 2 · 7-15

ABOVE

FG: 7-15
3PT: 1-2
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 4/7
TS%: 56.7
USG%: 29.4
STL: 0
BLK: 4
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -5
PRA: 33

2025-12-29

PHX

HOME

24.8MIN

2POINTS

2 · 4 · 1-5

BELOW

FG: 1-5
3PT: 0-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 20.0
USG%: 13.3
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 0
+/−: -28
PRA: 8

2025-12-28

MEM

HOME

26.2MIN

20POINTS

9 · 1 · 9-20

ABOVE

FG: 9-20
3PT: 1-6
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 3/6
TS%: 48.9
USG%: 30.4
STL: 2
BLK: 6
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +2
PRA: 30

2025-12-26

TOR

HOME

23.9MIN

15POINTS

3 · 2 · 7-9

BELOW

FG: 7-9
3PT: 1-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 83.3
USG%: 17.9
STL: 1
BLK: 3
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +11
PRA: 20

2025-12-23

CHA

AWAY

24.6MIN

7POINTS

11 · 1 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 0-1
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 4/7
TS%: 45.1
USG%: 13.4
STL: 1
BLK: 4
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: -11
PRA: 19

2025-12-20

MEM

AWAY

26.0MIN

18POINTS

11 · 2 · 8-16

ABOVE

FG: 8-16
3PT: 2-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 6/5
TS%: 56.3
USG%: 23.9
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -1
PRA: 31

2025-12-18

AWAY

24.1MIN

18POINTS

4 · 3 · 8-18

ABOVE

FG: 8-18
3PT: 2-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 32.0
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: -16
PRA: 25

2025-11-28

IND

AWAY

32.7MIN

24POINTS

9 · 1 · 8-19

ABOVE

FG: 8-19
3PT: 1-4
FT: 7-12
OREB/DREB: 2/7
TS%: 49.4
USG%: 33.8
STL: 2
BLK: 2
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -14
PRA: 34

2025-11-25

ATL

HOME

37.7MIN

27POINTS

11 · 0 · 11-15

ABOVE

FG: 11-15
3PT: 1-2
FT: 4-8
OREB/DREB: 3/8
TS%: 72.9
USG%: 23.1
STL: 2
BLK: 2
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +30
PRA: 38

2025-11-22

CHI

AWAY

27.9MIN

16POINTS

11 · 4 · 7-18

BELOW

FG: 7-18
3PT: 2-6
FT: 0-3
OREB/DREB: 2/9
TS%: 41.4
USG%: 29.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -8
PRA: 31

2025-11-16

BKN

HOME

23.1MIN

9POINTS

3 · 1 · 4-12

BELOW

FG: 4-12
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 37.5
USG%: 24.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 6
+/−: -2
PRA: 13

2025-11-12

HOU

AWAY

32.0MIN

25POINTS

11 · 4 · 10-15

ABOVE

FG: 10-15
3PT: 2-3
FT: 3-5
OREB/DREB: 4/7
TS%: 72.7
USG%: 25.7
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -16
PRA: 40

2025-11-10

DET

AWAY

37.3MIN

15POINTS

15 · 2 · 7-16

BELOW

FG: 7-16
3PT: 1-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/13
TS%: 46.9
USG%: 21.4
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 3
PF: 5
+/−: -4
PRA: 32

2025-11-08

DAL

HOME

30.7MIN

17POINTS

6 · 5 · 6-16

ABOVE

FG: 6-16
3PT: 0-3
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 4/2
TS%: 45.6
USG%: 27.5
STL: 2
BLK: 3
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +1
PRA: 28

2025-11-07

CLE

HOME

30.5MIN

20POINTS

4 · 4 · 10-17

ABOVE

FG: 10-17
3PT: 0-4
FT: 0-2
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 55.9
USG%: 27.1
STL: 1
BLK: 4
TOV: 3
PF: 0
+/−: -23
PRA: 28

2025-11-05

BOS

AWAY

29.0MIN

31POINTS

8 · 2 · 12-20

ABOVE

FG: 12-20
3PT: 4-5
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 3/5
TS%: 71.2
USG%: 35.5
STL: 0
BLK: 3
TOV: 2
PF: 0
+/−: -26
PRA: 41

2025-11-03

AWAY

29.5MIN

19POINTS

8 · 7 · 8-16

ABOVE

FG: 8-16
3PT: 0-3
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 3/5
TS%: 54.8
USG%: 28.8
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: -11
PRA: 34

2025-11-01

ORL

HOME

28.0MIN

10POINTS

8 · 2 · 4-8

BELOW

FG: 4-8
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-4
OREB/DREB: 2/6
TS%: 51.2
USG%: 16.6
STL: 0
BLK: 3
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: -17
PRA: 20

2025-10-30

OKC

AWAY

26.0MIN

14POINTS

8 · 2 · 5-11

BELOW

FG: 5-11
3PT: 2-3
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 3/5
TS%: 58.9
USG%: 24.2
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: -8
PRA: 24

2025-10-28

PHI

HOME

34.1MIN

31POINTS

11 · 5 · 13-23

ABOVE

FG: 13-23
3PT: 3-7
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 3/8
TS%: 64.9
USG%: 34.2
STL: 2
BLK: 2
TOV: 5
PF: 4
+/−: +3
PRA: 47

2025-10-26

CHA

HOME

25.2MIN

21POINTS

4 · 5 · 9-15

ABOVE

FG: 9-15
3PT: 1-3
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 66.1
USG%: 29.1
STL: 0
BLK: 3
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: -7
PRA: 30

2025-10-24

DAL

AWAY

25.7MIN

14POINTS

9 · 5 · 5-10

BELOW

FG: 5-10
3PT: 0-1
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 3/6
TS%: 59.5
USG%: 25.0
STL: 1
BLK: 3
TOV: 4
PF: 2
+/−: +5
PRA: 28

2025-10-22

MIL

AWAY

25.5MIN

10POINTS

11 · 3 · 5-10

BELOW

FG: 5-10
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-2
OREB/DREB: 1/10
TS%: 46.0
USG%: 18.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -6
PRA: 24

every game on file — nothing hidden