WAS · C · 2026 season

Alex Sarr

Next game: at IND, Thu 00:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 88 minutes before tip, 22:32 UTC · lines as of 22:11 UTC

Projected 28.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 10.5 · Over -108 / Under -125 · 15 books

Case for the over

Shot volume is up: 10.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 8.1 on the season. a hint, not a finding
To centers, IND have allowed 24.5 points a game over 11 games, the 6th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs IND (centers; usage 12% to 22%, 17.7 to 33.7 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Zach Edey (MEM) 11 vs 7.9 in his other games (Nov 4); Onyeka Okongwu (ATL) 13 vs 13.7 in his other games (Nov 2); Noah Clowney (BKN) 8 and 9 vs 4.1 in his other games (Nov 1, Oct 25) and 4 more; mean +3.8 points against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

He averages 9.9 points over 10 games, below the 10.5 line.

Rebounds 6.5 · Over -141 / Under +106 · 13 books

Case for the over

Over 6.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 8, 14, 8, 9, 7, 4, 6, 3, 4, 9); season average 7.2, last 3 average 10.0.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.7 a game so far; 0.280 rebounds per minute projects 7.8, +20% against the 6.5 line.
He has grabbed 19% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3 games (2 with on-court counts), up from 12.7% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
IND have allowed 47.5 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 4th-most of 30; to centers, 14.7 a game, the 8th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs IND (centers; usage 12% to 22%, 17.7 to 33.7 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Zach Edey (MEM) 13 vs 7.4 in his other games (Nov 4); Onyeka Okongwu (ATL) 10 vs 8.0 in his other games (Nov 2); Noah Clowney (BKN) 3 and 5 vs 4.5 in his other games (Nov 1, Oct 25) and 4 more; mean +3.8 rebounds against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 55% (13 books at 6.5).

Case for the under

IND miss 45.9 shots a game, the 7th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Assists 1.5 · Over -122 / Under -112 · 7 books

Case for the over

He averages 1.8 assists over 10 games, above the 1.5 line.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.7 a game so far; 0.070 assists per minute projects 2.0, +31% against the 1.5 line.
To centers, IND have allowed 5.2 assists a game over 11 games, the 5th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs IND (centers; usage 12% to 22%, 17.7 to 33.7 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Zach Edey (MEM) 1 vs 1.0 in his other games (Nov 4); Moritz Wagner (BKN) 0 vs 1.1 in his other games (Nov 1); Myles Turner (MIL) 4 vs 2.6 in his other games (Oct 26) and 1 more; mean +1.3 assists against their own averages over 4 games from 4 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 1.3 assists, below the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
He has assisted on 3.4% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3 games (2 with on-court counts), down from 10.5% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding

Threes 0.5 · Over -185 / Under +135 · 6 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 0.7 threes made, above the 0.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.7 a game so far; 0.023 threes per minute projects 0.7, +31% against the 0.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 4.3 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 3.1 on the season. a hint, not a finding
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 60% (6 books at 0.5).

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Pts+Reb+Ast 19.5 · Over -115 / Under -120 · 8 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 22.0 points + rebounds + assists, above the 19.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.7 a game so far; 0.734 PRA per minute projects 20.6, +5% against the 19.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 10.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 8.1 on the season. a hint, not a finding
IND have allowed 189.7 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 7th-most of 30; to centers, 44.4 a game, the 4th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs IND (centers; usage 12% to 22%, 17.7 to 33.7 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Zach Edey (MEM) 25 vs 16.2 in his other games (Nov 4); Onyeka Okongwu (ATL) 26 vs 24.5 in his other games (Nov 2); Noah Clowney (BKN) 11 and 15 vs 9.4 in his other games (Nov 1, Oct 25) and 4 more; mean +8.5 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 19.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 12, 30, 24, 21, 10, 24, 19, 16, 16, 17); season average 18.9.

Pts+Reb 17.5 · Over -112 / Under -120 · 8 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 20.7 points + rebounds, above the 17.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.7 a game so far; 0.664 PR per minute projects 18.6, +6% against the 17.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 10.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 8.1 on the season. a hint, not a finding
IND have allowed 162.6 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 8th-most of 30; to centers, 39.2 a game, the 5th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs IND (centers; usage 12% to 22%, 17.7 to 33.7 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Zach Edey (MEM) 24 vs 15.2 in his other games (Nov 4); Onyeka Okongwu (ATL) 23 vs 21.7 in his other games (Nov 2); Noah Clowney (BKN) 11 and 14 vs 8.6 in his other games (Nov 1, Oct 25) and 4 more; mean +7.9 points + rebounds against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Pts+Ast 12.5 · Over -105 / Under -125 · 7 books

Case for the over

Shot volume is up: 10.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 8.1 on the season. a hint, not a finding
To centers, IND have allowed 29.6 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 3rd-most of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs IND (centers; usage 12% to 22%, 17.7 to 33.7 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Zach Edey (MEM) 12 vs 8.9 in his other games (Nov 4); Onyeka Okongwu (ATL) 16 vs 16.5 in his other games (Nov 2); Moritz Wagner (BKN) 14 vs 10.8 in his other games (Nov 1) and 3 more; mean +4.5 points + assists against their own averages over 6 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

He averages 11.7 points + assists over 10 games, below the 12.5 line.
His last 3 games average 12.0 points + assists, below the 12.5 line. a hint, not a finding

Reb+Ast 8.5 · Over -117 / Under -115 · 8 books

Case for the over

He averages 9.0 rebounds + assists over 10 games, above the 8.5 line.
His last 3 games average 11.3 rebounds + assists, above the 8.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.7 a game so far; 0.350 RA per minute projects 9.8, +15% against the 8.5 line.
He has grabbed 19% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3 games (2 with on-court counts), up from 12.7% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
IND have allowed 74.5 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 5th-most of 30; to centers, 19.9 a game, the 5th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs IND (centers; usage 12% to 22%, 17.7 to 33.7 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Zach Edey (MEM) 14 vs 8.4 in his other games (Nov 4); Onyeka Okongwu (ATL) 13 vs 10.8 in his other games (Nov 2); Noah Clowney (BKN) 3 and 6 vs 5.2 in his other games (Nov 1, Oct 25) and 4 more; mean +4.5 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

IND miss 45.9 shots a game, the 7th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 0.5 · Over -172 / Under +122 · 2 books

Case for the over

He averages 1.1 steals over 10 games, above the 0.5 line.
His last 3 games average 1.0 steals, above the 0.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.7 a game so far; 0.043 steals per minute projects 1.2, +139% against the 0.5 line.
To centers, IND have allowed 1.5 steals a game over 11 games, the 8th-most of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 58% (2 books at 0.5).

Case for the under

Role comparables vs IND (centers; usage 12% to 22%, 17.7 to 33.7 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Zach Edey (MEM) 0 vs 0.1 in his other games (Nov 4); Onyeka Okongwu (ATL) 0 vs 1.0 in his other games (Nov 2); Noah Clowney (BKN) 0 and 0 vs 0.4 in his other games (Nov 1, Oct 25) and 4 more; mean -0.1 steals against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Blocks 1.5 · Over +142 / Under -207 · 2 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 1, 0, 2, 1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 0, 0); season average 1.0, last 3 average 1.0.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.7 a game so far; 0.039 blocks per minute projects 1.1, -27% against the 1.5 line.
IND have allowed 4.5 blocks a game over 11 games, the 9th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team; to centers, 1.3 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
IND take 86.3 shots a game, the 8th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 62% (2 books at 1.5).

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

10 games played · averaging 9.9 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 9.5 · POINTS · 2024–2026

HIT RATE75.8%94 of 124 games

INTERVAL67.6%–82.5%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN-314at that rate

AT THE FLOOR-208if the rate is 67.6%

Alex has cleared 9.5 points in 75.8% of 124 games since 2024, and in 60.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs -314 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-09

DET

AWAY

25.1MIN

4POINTS

8 · 0 · 2-5

BELOW

FG: 2-5
3PT: 0-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/6
TS%: 40.0
USG%: 9.6
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -15
PRA: 12

2026-11-07

OKC

AWAY

27.5MIN

15POINTS

14 · 1 · 7-17

ABOVE

FG: 7-17
3PT: 1-9
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 5/9
TS%: 44.1
USG%: 25.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -21
PRA: 30

2026-11-06

ATL

AWAY

30.1MIN

13POINTS

8 · 3 · 5-10

ABOVE

FG: 5-10
3PT: 1-2
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/7
TS%: 59.7
USG%: 17.5
STL: 2
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: -6
PRA: 24

2026-11-04

ATL

HOME

22.5MIN

11POINTS

9 · 1 · 3-6

ABOVE

FG: 3-6
3PT: 0-2
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 2/7
TS%: 63.7
USG%: 18.8
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: -5
PRA: 21

2026-10-30

CHA

HOME

28.6MIN

3POINTS

7 · 0 · 1-5

BELOW

FG: 1-5
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 30.0
USG%: 14.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 0
+/−: +22
PRA: 10

2026-10-28

CLE

AWAY

25.9MIN

18POINTS

4 · 2 · 7-11

ABOVE

FG: 7-11
3PT: 2-5
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 73.1
USG%: 24.6
STL: 4
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -3
PRA: 24

2026-10-26

CHA

AWAY

25.6MIN

12POINTS

6 · 1 · 4-6

ABOVE

FG: 4-6
3PT: 0-2
FT: 4-6
OREB/DREB: 3/3
TS%: 69.4
USG%: 15.3
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -5
PRA: 19

2026-10-24

CHI

AWAY

23.0MIN

10POINTS

3 · 3 · 5-8

ABOVE

FG: 5-8
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/1
TS%: 62.5
USG%: 17.3
STL: 0
BLK: 3
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: -5
PRA: 16

2026-10-23

TOR

HOME

24.8MIN

7POINTS

4 · 5 · 2-4

BELOW

FG: 2-4
3PT: 1-2
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 71.7
USG%: 10.0
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: +1
PRA: 16

2026-10-21

MIL

HOME

24.3MIN

6POINTS

9 · 2 · 3-9

BELOW

FG: 3-9
3PT: 0-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 5/4
TS%: 33.3
USG%: 15.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -4
PRA: 17

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: at IND, Thu 00:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 88 minutes before tip, 22:32 UTC · lines as of 22:11 UTC

Projected 28.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 10.5 · Over -108 / Under -125 · 15 books

Case for the over

Shot volume is up: 10.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 8.1 on the season. a hint, not a finding
To centers, IND have allowed 24.5 points a game over 11 games, the 6th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs IND (centers; usage 12% to 22%, 17.7 to 33.7 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Zach Edey (MEM) 11 vs 7.9 in his other games (Nov 4); Onyeka Okongwu (ATL) 13 vs 13.7 in his other games (Nov 2); Noah Clowney (BKN) 8 and 9 vs 4.1 in his other games (Nov 1, Oct 25) and 4 more; mean +3.8 points against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

He averages 9.9 points over 10 games, below the 10.5 line.

Rebounds 6.5 · Over -141 / Under +106 · 13 books

Case for the over

Over 6.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 8, 14, 8, 9, 7, 4, 6, 3, 4, 9); season average 7.2, last 3 average 10.0.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.7 a game so far; 0.280 rebounds per minute projects 7.8, +20% against the 6.5 line.
He has grabbed 19% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3 games (2 with on-court counts), up from 12.7% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
IND have allowed 47.5 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 4th-most of 30; to centers, 14.7 a game, the 8th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs IND (centers; usage 12% to 22%, 17.7 to 33.7 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Zach Edey (MEM) 13 vs 7.4 in his other games (Nov 4); Onyeka Okongwu (ATL) 10 vs 8.0 in his other games (Nov 2); Noah Clowney (BKN) 3 and 5 vs 4.5 in his other games (Nov 1, Oct 25) and 4 more; mean +3.8 rebounds against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 55% (13 books at 6.5).

Case for the under

IND miss 45.9 shots a game, the 7th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Assists 1.5 · Over -122 / Under -112 · 7 books

Case for the over

He averages 1.8 assists over 10 games, above the 1.5 line.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.7 a game so far; 0.070 assists per minute projects 2.0, +31% against the 1.5 line.
To centers, IND have allowed 5.2 assists a game over 11 games, the 5th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs IND (centers; usage 12% to 22%, 17.7 to 33.7 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Zach Edey (MEM) 1 vs 1.0 in his other games (Nov 4); Moritz Wagner (BKN) 0 vs 1.1 in his other games (Nov 1); Myles Turner (MIL) 4 vs 2.6 in his other games (Oct 26) and 1 more; mean +1.3 assists against their own averages over 4 games from 4 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 1.3 assists, below the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
He has assisted on 3.4% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3 games (2 with on-court counts), down from 10.5% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding

Threes 0.5 · Over -185 / Under +135 · 6 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 0.7 threes made, above the 0.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.7 a game so far; 0.023 threes per minute projects 0.7, +31% against the 0.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 4.3 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 3.1 on the season. a hint, not a finding
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 60% (6 books at 0.5).

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Pts+Reb+Ast 19.5 · Over -115 / Under -120 · 8 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 22.0 points + rebounds + assists, above the 19.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.7 a game so far; 0.734 PRA per minute projects 20.6, +5% against the 19.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 10.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 8.1 on the season. a hint, not a finding
IND have allowed 189.7 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 7th-most of 30; to centers, 44.4 a game, the 4th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs IND (centers; usage 12% to 22%, 17.7 to 33.7 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Zach Edey (MEM) 25 vs 16.2 in his other games (Nov 4); Onyeka Okongwu (ATL) 26 vs 24.5 in his other games (Nov 2); Noah Clowney (BKN) 11 and 15 vs 9.4 in his other games (Nov 1, Oct 25) and 4 more; mean +8.5 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 19.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 12, 30, 24, 21, 10, 24, 19, 16, 16, 17); season average 18.9.

Pts+Reb 17.5 · Over -112 / Under -120 · 8 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 20.7 points + rebounds, above the 17.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.7 a game so far; 0.664 PR per minute projects 18.6, +6% against the 17.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 10.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 8.1 on the season. a hint, not a finding
IND have allowed 162.6 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 8th-most of 30; to centers, 39.2 a game, the 5th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs IND (centers; usage 12% to 22%, 17.7 to 33.7 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Zach Edey (MEM) 24 vs 15.2 in his other games (Nov 4); Onyeka Okongwu (ATL) 23 vs 21.7 in his other games (Nov 2); Noah Clowney (BKN) 11 and 14 vs 8.6 in his other games (Nov 1, Oct 25) and 4 more; mean +7.9 points + rebounds against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Pts+Ast 12.5 · Over -105 / Under -125 · 7 books

Case for the over

Shot volume is up: 10.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 8.1 on the season. a hint, not a finding
To centers, IND have allowed 29.6 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 3rd-most of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs IND (centers; usage 12% to 22%, 17.7 to 33.7 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Zach Edey (MEM) 12 vs 8.9 in his other games (Nov 4); Onyeka Okongwu (ATL) 16 vs 16.5 in his other games (Nov 2); Moritz Wagner (BKN) 14 vs 10.8 in his other games (Nov 1) and 3 more; mean +4.5 points + assists against their own averages over 6 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

He averages 11.7 points + assists over 10 games, below the 12.5 line.
His last 3 games average 12.0 points + assists, below the 12.5 line. a hint, not a finding

Reb+Ast 8.5 · Over -117 / Under -115 · 8 books

Case for the over

He averages 9.0 rebounds + assists over 10 games, above the 8.5 line.
His last 3 games average 11.3 rebounds + assists, above the 8.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.7 a game so far; 0.350 RA per minute projects 9.8, +15% against the 8.5 line.
He has grabbed 19% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3 games (2 with on-court counts), up from 12.7% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
IND have allowed 74.5 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 5th-most of 30; to centers, 19.9 a game, the 5th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs IND (centers; usage 12% to 22%, 17.7 to 33.7 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Zach Edey (MEM) 14 vs 8.4 in his other games (Nov 4); Onyeka Okongwu (ATL) 13 vs 10.8 in his other games (Nov 2); Noah Clowney (BKN) 3 and 6 vs 5.2 in his other games (Nov 1, Oct 25) and 4 more; mean +4.5 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

IND miss 45.9 shots a game, the 7th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 0.5 · Over -172 / Under +122 · 2 books

Case for the over

He averages 1.1 steals over 10 games, above the 0.5 line.
His last 3 games average 1.0 steals, above the 0.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.7 a game so far; 0.043 steals per minute projects 1.2, +139% against the 0.5 line.
To centers, IND have allowed 1.5 steals a game over 11 games, the 8th-most of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 58% (2 books at 0.5).

Case for the under

Role comparables vs IND (centers; usage 12% to 22%, 17.7 to 33.7 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Zach Edey (MEM) 0 vs 0.1 in his other games (Nov 4); Onyeka Okongwu (ATL) 0 vs 1.0 in his other games (Nov 2); Noah Clowney (BKN) 0 and 0 vs 0.4 in his other games (Nov 1, Oct 25) and 4 more; mean -0.1 steals against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Blocks 1.5 · Over +142 / Under -207 · 2 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 1, 0, 2, 1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 0, 0); season average 1.0, last 3 average 1.0.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 25.7 a game so far; 0.039 blocks per minute projects 1.1, -27% against the 1.5 line.
IND have allowed 4.5 blocks a game over 11 games, the 9th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team; to centers, 1.3 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
IND take 86.3 shots a game, the 8th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 62% (2 books at 1.5).