HOU · C · 2026 season

Alperen Sengun

Next game: vs GSW, Thu 02:30 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 20:32 UTC · lines as of 20:18 UTC

Projected 34.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 8 games this season

Points 19.5 · Over -111 / Under -119 · 15 books

Case for the over

He averages 20.4 points over 8 games, above the 19.5 line.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 17.3 points, below the 19.5 line. a hint, not a finding
To centers, GSW have allowed 15.1 points a game over 11 games, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (centers; usage 20.7% to 30.7%, 26.5 to 42.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Bam Adebayo (MIA) 18 vs 17.8 in his other games (Nov 5); Nikola Jokić (DEN) 19 vs 23.6 in his other games (Oct 26); mean -2.2 points against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 9.5 · Over +101 / Under -136 · 14 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 10.0 rebounds, above the 9.5 line. a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

GSW have allowed 41.5 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30; to centers, 9.8 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
GSW miss 45.2 shots a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (centers; usage 20.7% to 30.7%, 26.5 to 42.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Bam Adebayo (MIA) 10 vs 8.2 in his other games (Nov 5); Nikola Jokić (DEN) 7 vs 11.2 in his other games (Oct 26); mean -1.2 rebounds against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 54% (14 books at 9.5).

Assists 6.5 · Over -125 / Under -110 · 15 books

Case for the over

Over 6.5 in 6 of 8 games this season (newest first: 8, 5, 10, 10, 9, 9, 7, 5); season average 7.9, last 3 average 7.7.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 34.5 a game so far; 0.228 assists per minute projects 7.8, +19% against the 6.5 line.

Case for the under

To centers, GSW have allowed 2.7 assists a game over 11 games, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 0.5 · Over +105 / Under -137 · 11 books

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 6 of 8 games this season (newest first: 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 2); season average 0.9, last 3 average 0.7.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 34.5 a game so far; 0.025 threes per minute projects 0.9, +72% against the 0.5 line.

Case for the under

To centers, GSW have allowed 0.6 threes made a game over 11 games, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (centers; usage 20.7% to 30.7%, 26.5 to 42.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Bam Adebayo (MIA) 0 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 5); Nikola Jokić (DEN) 1 vs 1.0 in his other games (Oct 26); mean -0.3 threes made against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 54% (11 books at 0.5).

Pts+Reb+Ast 35.5 · Over -117 / Under -113 · 12 books

Case for the over

Over 35.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 40, 26, 39, 43, 34, 47, 34, 38); season average 37.6.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 34.5 a game so far; 1.089 PRA per minute projects 37.0, +4% against the 35.5 line.

Case for the under

To centers, GSW have allowed 27.6 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (centers; usage 20.7% to 30.7%, 26.5 to 42.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Bam Adebayo (MIA) 28 vs 29.6 in his other games (Nov 5); Nikola Jokić (DEN) 37 vs 43.8 in his other games (Oct 26); mean -4.2 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 28.5 · Over -120 / Under -110 · 8 books

Case for the over

Over 28.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 32, 21, 29, 33, 25, 38, 27, 33); season average 29.8.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 27.3 points + rebounds, below the 28.5 line. a hint, not a finding
To centers, GSW have allowed 24.9 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (centers; usage 20.7% to 30.7%, 26.5 to 42.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Bam Adebayo (MIA) 28 vs 26.0 in his other games (Nov 5); Nikola Jokić (DEN) 26 vs 34.9 in his other games (Oct 26); mean -3.4 points + rebounds against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 26.5 · Over -108 / Under -122 · 8 books

Case for the over

Over 26.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 28, 20, 27, 36, 25, 38, 24, 28); season average 28.2.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 34.5 a game so far; 0.818 PA per minute projects 27.8, +5% against the 26.5 line.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 25.0 points + assists, below the 26.5 line. a hint, not a finding
To centers, GSW have allowed 17.8 points + assists a game over 11 games, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (centers; usage 20.7% to 30.7%, 26.5 to 42.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Bam Adebayo (MIA) 18 vs 21.4 in his other games (Nov 5); Nikola Jokić (DEN) 30 vs 32.5 in his other games (Oct 26); mean -2.9 points + assists against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 15.5 · Over -128 / Under -104 · 7 books

Case for the over

Over 15.5 in 6 of 8 games this season (newest first: 20, 11, 22, 17, 18, 18, 17, 15); season average 17.2, last 3 average 17.7.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 34.5 a game so far; 0.499 RA per minute projects 17.0, +10% against the 15.5 line.

Case for the under

GSW have allowed 68.3 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 10th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team; to centers, 12.5 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
GSW miss 45.2 shots a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (centers; usage 20.7% to 30.7%, 26.5 to 42.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Bam Adebayo (MIA) 10 vs 11.8 in his other games (Nov 5); Nikola Jokić (DEN) 18 vs 20.1 in his other games (Oct 26); mean -2.0 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 1.5 · Over +143 / Under -200 · 1 book

Case for the over

GSW have allowed 9.0 steals a game over 11 games, the 10th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
GSW commit 15.8 turnovers a game, the 10th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 6 of 8 games this season (newest first: 1, 0, 0, 2, 0, 6, 1, 0); season average 1.2, last 3 average 0.3.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 34.5 a game so far; 0.036 steals per minute projects 1.2, -18% against the 1.5 line.
To centers, GSW have allowed 1.1 steals a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the under at 62% (1 book at 1.5).

Blocks 0.5 · Over -200 / Under +145 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 6 of 8 games this season (newest first: 1, 1, 3, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0); season average 1.1, last 3 average 1.7.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 34.5 a game so far; 0.033 blocks per minute projects 1.1, +121% against the 0.5 line.
GSW have allowed 5.5 blocks a game over 11 games, the 8th-most of 30, tied with 1 other team; to centers, 2.2 a game, the 9th-most of 30, tied with 2 other teams.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (centers; usage 20.7% to 30.7%, 26.5 to 42.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Bam Adebayo (MIA) 1 vs 0.7 in his other games (Nov 5); Nikola Jokić (DEN) 3 vs 1.0 in his other games (Oct 26); mean +1.1 blocks against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the over at 62% (1 book at 0.5).

Case for the under

GSW take 86.4 shots a game, the 10th-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

8 games played · averaging 20.4 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 20.5 · POINTS · 2021–2026

HIT RATE30.4%115 of 378 games

INTERVAL26.0%–35.2%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+228at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+285if the rate is 26.0%

Alperen has cleared 20.5 points in 30.4% of 378 games since 2021, and in 30.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +228 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-09

DEN

HOME

35.1MIN

20POINTS

12 · 8 · 9-17

BELOW

FG: 9-17
3PT: 1-3
FT: 1-3
OREB/DREB: 5/7
TS%: 54.6
USG%: 25.6
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: -3
PRA: 40

2026-11-07

PHX

AWAY

31.7MIN

15POINTS

6 · 5 · 5-16

BELOW

FG: 5-16
3PT: 1-2
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 42.2
USG%: 25.7
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -16
PRA: 26

2026-11-04

MIN

HOME

39.2MIN

17POINTS

12 · 10 · 5-15

BELOW

FG: 5-15
3PT: 0-1
FT: 7-9
OREB/DREB: 3/9
TS%: 44.8
USG%: 24.8
STL: 0
BLK: 3
TOV: 4
PF: 3
+/−: -7
PRA: 39

2026-11-02

BOS

HOME

37.7MIN

26POINTS

7 · 10 · 12-15

ABOVE

FG: 12-15
3PT: 1-2
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 3/4
TS%: 81.9
USG%: 22.0
STL: 2
BLK: 2
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: +21
PRA: 43

2026-10-31

OKC

HOME

32.6MIN

16POINTS

9 · 9 · 6-17

BELOW

FG: 6-17
3PT: 0-2
FT: 4-6
OREB/DREB: 4/5
TS%: 40.7
USG%: 29.0
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: +19
PRA: 34

2026-10-26

ATL

HOME

37.2MIN

29POINTS

9 · 9 · 11-15

ABOVE

FG: 11-15
3PT: 1-1
FT: 6-8
OREB/DREB: 5/4
TS%: 78.3
USG%: 27.3
STL: 6
BLK: 1
TOV: 6
PF: 4
+/−: +29
PRA: 47

2026-10-24

ATL

AWAY

32.9MIN

17POINTS

10 · 7 · 6-12

BELOW

FG: 6-12
3PT: 1-2
FT: 4-6
OREB/DREB: 0/10
TS%: 58.1
USG%: 22.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: +13
PRA: 34

2026-10-21

DAL

HOME

29.9MIN

23POINTS

10 · 5 · 9-15

ABOVE

FG: 9-15
3PT: 2-2
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 5/5
TS%: 68.6
USG%: 29.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 4
+/−: +23
PRA: 38

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: vs GSW, Thu 02:30 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 20:32 UTC · lines as of 20:18 UTC

Projected 34.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 8 games this season

Points 19.5 · Over -111 / Under -119 · 15 books

Case for the over

He averages 20.4 points over 8 games, above the 19.5 line.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 17.3 points, below the 19.5 line. a hint, not a finding
To centers, GSW have allowed 15.1 points a game over 11 games, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (centers; usage 20.7% to 30.7%, 26.5 to 42.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Bam Adebayo (MIA) 18 vs 17.8 in his other games (Nov 5); Nikola Jokić (DEN) 19 vs 23.6 in his other games (Oct 26); mean -2.2 points against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 9.5 · Over +101 / Under -136 · 14 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 10.0 rebounds, above the 9.5 line. a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

GSW have allowed 41.5 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30; to centers, 9.8 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
GSW miss 45.2 shots a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (centers; usage 20.7% to 30.7%, 26.5 to 42.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Bam Adebayo (MIA) 10 vs 8.2 in his other games (Nov 5); Nikola Jokić (DEN) 7 vs 11.2 in his other games (Oct 26); mean -1.2 rebounds against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 54% (14 books at 9.5).

Assists 6.5 · Over -125 / Under -110 · 15 books

Case for the over

Over 6.5 in 6 of 8 games this season (newest first: 8, 5, 10, 10, 9, 9, 7, 5); season average 7.9, last 3 average 7.7.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 34.5 a game so far; 0.228 assists per minute projects 7.8, +19% against the 6.5 line.

Case for the under

To centers, GSW have allowed 2.7 assists a game over 11 games, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 0.5 · Over +105 / Under -137 · 11 books

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 6 of 8 games this season (newest first: 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 2); season average 0.9, last 3 average 0.7.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 34.5 a game so far; 0.025 threes per minute projects 0.9, +72% against the 0.5 line.

Case for the under

To centers, GSW have allowed 0.6 threes made a game over 11 games, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (centers; usage 20.7% to 30.7%, 26.5 to 42.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Bam Adebayo (MIA) 0 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 5); Nikola Jokić (DEN) 1 vs 1.0 in his other games (Oct 26); mean -0.3 threes made against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 54% (11 books at 0.5).

Pts+Reb+Ast 35.5 · Over -117 / Under -113 · 12 books

Case for the over

Over 35.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 40, 26, 39, 43, 34, 47, 34, 38); season average 37.6.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 34.5 a game so far; 1.089 PRA per minute projects 37.0, +4% against the 35.5 line.

Case for the under

To centers, GSW have allowed 27.6 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (centers; usage 20.7% to 30.7%, 26.5 to 42.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Bam Adebayo (MIA) 28 vs 29.6 in his other games (Nov 5); Nikola Jokić (DEN) 37 vs 43.8 in his other games (Oct 26); mean -4.2 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 28.5 · Over -120 / Under -110 · 8 books

Case for the over

Over 28.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 32, 21, 29, 33, 25, 38, 27, 33); season average 29.8.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 27.3 points + rebounds, below the 28.5 line. a hint, not a finding
To centers, GSW have allowed 24.9 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (centers; usage 20.7% to 30.7%, 26.5 to 42.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Bam Adebayo (MIA) 28 vs 26.0 in his other games (Nov 5); Nikola Jokić (DEN) 26 vs 34.9 in his other games (Oct 26); mean -3.4 points + rebounds against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 26.5 · Over -108 / Under -122 · 8 books

Case for the over

Over 26.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 28, 20, 27, 36, 25, 38, 24, 28); season average 28.2.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 34.5 a game so far; 0.818 PA per minute projects 27.8, +5% against the 26.5 line.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 25.0 points + assists, below the 26.5 line. a hint, not a finding
To centers, GSW have allowed 17.8 points + assists a game over 11 games, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (centers; usage 20.7% to 30.7%, 26.5 to 42.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Bam Adebayo (MIA) 18 vs 21.4 in his other games (Nov 5); Nikola Jokić (DEN) 30 vs 32.5 in his other games (Oct 26); mean -2.9 points + assists against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 15.5 · Over -128 / Under -104 · 7 books

Case for the over

Over 15.5 in 6 of 8 games this season (newest first: 20, 11, 22, 17, 18, 18, 17, 15); season average 17.2, last 3 average 17.7.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 34.5 a game so far; 0.499 RA per minute projects 17.0, +10% against the 15.5 line.

Case for the under

GSW have allowed 68.3 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 10th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team; to centers, 12.5 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
GSW miss 45.2 shots a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (centers; usage 20.7% to 30.7%, 26.5 to 42.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Bam Adebayo (MIA) 10 vs 11.8 in his other games (Nov 5); Nikola Jokić (DEN) 18 vs 20.1 in his other games (Oct 26); mean -2.0 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 1.5 · Over +143 / Under -200 · 1 book

Case for the over

GSW have allowed 9.0 steals a game over 11 games, the 10th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
GSW commit 15.8 turnovers a game, the 10th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 6 of 8 games this season (newest first: 1, 0, 0, 2, 0, 6, 1, 0); season average 1.2, last 3 average 0.3.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 34.5 a game so far; 0.036 steals per minute projects 1.2, -18% against the 1.5 line.
To centers, GSW have allowed 1.1 steals a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the under at 62% (1 book at 1.5).

Blocks 0.5 · Over -200 / Under +145 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 6 of 8 games this season (newest first: 1, 1, 3, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0); season average 1.1, last 3 average 1.7.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 34.5 a game so far; 0.033 blocks per minute projects 1.1, +121% against the 0.5 line.
GSW have allowed 5.5 blocks a game over 11 games, the 8th-most of 30, tied with 1 other team; to centers, 2.2 a game, the 9th-most of 30, tied with 2 other teams.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (centers; usage 20.7% to 30.7%, 26.5 to 42.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Bam Adebayo (MIA) 1 vs 0.7 in his other games (Nov 5); Nikola Jokić (DEN) 3 vs 1.0 in his other games (Oct 26); mean +1.1 blocks against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the over at 62% (1 book at 0.5).

Case for the under

GSW take 86.4 shots a game, the 10th-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.