ORL · G · 2026 season

Anthony Black

Next game: at UTA, Thu 02:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 20:02 UTC · lines as of 19:44 UTC

Projected 34.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 7 games this season

Points 17.5 · Over -120 / Under -117 · 2 books

Case for the over

Over 17.5 in 4 of 7 games this season (newest first: 26, 18, 10, 23, 17, 8, 18).
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 30.5 a game so far; 0.562 points per minute projects 19.1, +9% against the 17.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 14.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 12.0 on the season. a hint, not a finding
UTA have allowed 117.6 points a game over 11 games, the 8th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
UTA allow 114.1 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs UTA (guards; usage 18.6% to 28.6%, 22.5 to 38.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Klay Thompson (MIA) 11 vs 14.7 in his other games (Nov 10); Davion Mitchell (MIA) 19 vs 16.2 in his other games (Nov 10); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 26 vs 17.3 in his other games (Nov 8) and 7 more; mean +0.8 points against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

The projection assumes 34.0 minutes, more than his 30.5 a game so far.

Rebounds 4.5 · Over -120 / Under -120 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 4.5 in 5 of 7 games this season (newest first: 7, 8, 7, 8, 6, 2, 3); season average 5.9, last 3 average 7.3.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 30.5 a game so far; 0.192 rebounds per minute projects 6.5, +45% against the 4.5 line.
UTA have allowed 45.8 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 8th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
UTA miss 49.3 shots a game, the 9th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
UTA average 103.1 possessions a game, the 7th-fastest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs UTA (guards; usage 18.6% to 28.6%, 22.5 to 38.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 4 vs 5.0 in his other games (Nov 8); Kyrie Irving (DAL) 2 vs 3.4 in his other games (Nov 6); Jeremiah Fears (NOP) 6 vs 4.9 in his other games (Nov 4) and 5 more; mean +0.5 rebounds against their own averages over 10 games from 8 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

The projection assumes 34.0 minutes, more than his 30.5 a game so far.

Assists 4.5 · Over -120 / Under -120 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 4.5 in 5 of 7 games this season (newest first: 5, 6, 6, 3, 10, 1, 5); season average 5.1, last 3 average 5.7.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 30.5 a game so far; 0.168 assists per minute projects 5.7, +27% against the 4.5 line.
UTA average 103.1 possessions a game, the 7th-fastest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs UTA (guards; usage 18.6% to 28.6%, 22.5 to 38.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 1 vs 4.3 in his other games (Nov 8); Kyrie Irving (DAL) 2 vs 4.6 in his other games (Nov 6); Jeremiah Fears (NOP) 2 vs 5.7 in his other games (Nov 4) and 5 more; mean +0.2 assists against their own averages over 10 games from 8 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

The projection assumes 34.0 minutes, more than his 30.5 a game so far.
UTA have allowed 22.5 assists a game over 11 games, the 2nd-fewest of 30; to guards, 13.8 a game, the 5th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 1.5 · Over -160 / Under +110 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 4 of 7 games this season (newest first: 2, 2, 1, 1, 3, 0, 5); season average 2.0, last 3 average 1.7.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 30.5 a game so far; 0.066 threes per minute projects 2.2, +48% against the 1.5 line.
UTA average 103.1 possessions a game, the 7th-fastest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs UTA (guards; usage 18.6% to 28.6%, 22.5 to 38.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Davion Mitchell (MIA) 3 vs 2.2 in his other games (Nov 10); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 4 vs 1.7 in his other games (Nov 8); Jeremiah Fears (NOP) 1 vs 1.1 in his other games (Nov 4) and 4 more; mean +0.6 threes made against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the over at 56% (1 book at 1.5).

Case for the under

The projection assumes 34.0 minutes, more than his 30.5 a game so far.
UTA have allowed 12.2 threes made a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30; to guards, 6.5 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
UTA allow 34.8 three-point attempts a game, the 7th-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 27.5 · Over -105 / Under -132 · 2 books

Case for the over

Over 27.5 in 4 of 7 games this season (newest first: 38, 32, 23, 34, 33, 11, 26); last 3 average 31.0.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 30.5 a game so far; 0.922 PRA per minute projects 31.3, +14% against the 27.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 14.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 12.0 on the season. a hint, not a finding
UTA allow 114.1 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
UTA average 103.1 possessions a game, the 7th-fastest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs UTA (guards; usage 18.6% to 28.6%, 22.5 to 38.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Klay Thompson (MIA) 14 vs 18.2 in his other games (Nov 10); Davion Mitchell (MIA) 32 vs 26.4 in his other games (Nov 10); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 31 vs 26.6 in his other games (Nov 8) and 7 more; mean +1.6 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

The projection assumes 34.0 minutes, more than his 30.5 a game so far.
To guards, UTA have allowed 90.4 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 10th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 23.5 · Over -110 / Under -130 · 1 book

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 25.3 points + rebounds, above the 23.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 30.5 a game so far; 0.753 PR per minute projects 25.6, +9% against the 23.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 14.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 12.0 on the season. a hint, not a finding
UTA have allowed 163.5 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 7th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
UTA allow 114.1 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs UTA (guards; usage 18.6% to 28.6%, 22.5 to 38.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Klay Thompson (MIA) 12 vs 16.3 in his other games (Nov 10); Davion Mitchell (MIA) 24 vs 17.9 in his other games (Nov 10); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 30 vs 22.3 in his other games (Nov 8) and 7 more; mean +1.4 points + rebounds against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 23.5 in 4 of 7 games this season (newest first: 33, 26, 17, 31, 23, 10, 21).
The projection assumes 34.0 minutes, more than his 30.5 a game so far.

Pts+Ast 22.5 · Over -125 / Under -120 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 22.5 in 5 of 7 games this season (newest first: 31, 24, 16, 26, 27, 9, 23); last 3 average 23.7.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 30.5 a game so far; 0.730 PA per minute projects 24.8, +10% against the 22.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 14.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 12.0 on the season. a hint, not a finding
UTA allow 114.1 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
UTA average 103.1 possessions a game, the 7th-fastest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs UTA (guards; usage 18.6% to 28.6%, 22.5 to 38.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Klay Thompson (MIA) 13 vs 16.6 in his other games (Nov 10); Davion Mitchell (MIA) 27 vs 24.7 in his other games (Nov 10); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 27 vs 21.6 in his other games (Nov 8) and 7 more; mean +1.0 points + assists against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

The projection assumes 34.0 minutes, more than his 30.5 a game so far.
To guards, UTA have allowed 73.2 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 9.5 · Over -105 / Under -135 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 9.5 in 5 of 7 games this season (newest first: 12, 14, 13, 11, 16, 3, 8); season average 11.0, last 3 average 13.0.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 30.5 a game so far; 0.360 RA per minute projects 12.3, +29% against the 9.5 line.
UTA miss 49.3 shots a game, the 9th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
UTA average 103.1 possessions a game, the 7th-fastest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs UTA (guards; usage 18.6% to 28.6%, 22.5 to 38.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Davion Mitchell (MIA) 13 vs 10.2 in his other games (Nov 10); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 5 vs 9.3 in his other games (Nov 8); Kyrie Irving (DAL) 4 vs 8.0 in his other games (Nov 6) and 6 more; mean +0.9 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

The projection assumes 34.0 minutes, more than his 30.5 a game so far.
UTA have allowed 68.3 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 10th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team; to guards, 31.0 a game, the 9th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 1.5 · Over -145 / Under -100 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 4 of 7 games this season (newest first: 4, 4, 1, 2, 0, 1, 2); season average 2.0, last 3 average 3.0.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 30.5 a game so far; 0.066 steals per minute projects 2.2, +48% against the 1.5 line.
UTA have allowed 9.6 steals a game over 11 games, the 3rd-most of 30, tied with 1 other team; to guards, 5.9 a game, the 4th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
UTA commit 17.0 turnovers a game, the 4th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs UTA (guards; usage 18.6% to 28.6%, 22.5 to 38.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Davion Mitchell (MIA) 2 vs 1.2 in his other games (Nov 10); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 2 vs 1.2 in his other games (Nov 8); Kyrie Irving (DAL) 3 vs 1.0 in his other games (Nov 6) and 3 more; mean +1.4 steals against their own averages over 7 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the over at 54% (1 book at 1.5).

Case for the under

The projection assumes 34.0 minutes, more than his 30.5 a game so far.

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

7 games played · averaging 17.1 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 17.5 · POINTS · 2023–2026

HIT RATE17.2%40 of 232 games

INTERVAL12.9%–22.6%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+480at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+674if the rate is 12.9%

Anthony has cleared 17.5 points in 17.2% of 232 games since 2023, and in 50.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +480 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-10

SAC

AWAY

33.2MIN

26POINTS

7 · 5 · 10-17

ABOVE

FG: 10-17
3PT: 2-5
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 3/4
TS%: 69.3
USG%: 29.9
STL: 4
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 3
+/−: +9
PRA: 38

2026-11-07

AWAY

37.7MIN

18POINTS

8 · 6 · 7-19

ABOVE

FG: 7-19
3PT: 2-6
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 3/5
TS%: 44.3
USG%: 23.0
STL: 4
BLK: 3
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: -7
PRA: 32

2026-11-05

PHX

AWAY

31.0MIN

10POINTS

7 · 6 · 3-8

BELOW

FG: 3-8
3PT: 1-3
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 4/3
TS%: 51.2
USG%: 19.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 5
PF: 2
+/−: -3
PRA: 23

2026-11-01

BOS

HOME

32.8MIN

23POINTS

8 · 3 · 6-12

ABOVE

FG: 6-12
3PT: 1-5
FT: 10-11
OREB/DREB: 0/8
TS%: 68.3
USG%: 28.9
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 2
+/−: -11
PRA: 34

2026-10-30

TOR

AWAY

31.2MIN

17POINTS

6 · 10 · 5-8

BELOW

FG: 5-8
3PT: 3-4
FT: 4-6
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 79.9
USG%: 17.9
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +2
PRA: 33

2026-10-28

TOR

AWAY

21.8MIN

8POINTS

2 · 1 · 4-9

BELOW

FG: 4-9
3PT: 0-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 44.4
USG%: 25.4
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 4
+/−: -25
PRA: 11

2026-10-25

AWAY

26.0MIN

18POINTS

3 · 5 · 6-11

ABOVE

FG: 6-11
3PT: 5-7
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 75.8
USG%: 19.6
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 6
+/−: +21
PRA: 26

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: at UTA, Thu 02:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 20:02 UTC · lines as of 19:44 UTC

Projected 34.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 7 games this season

Points 17.5 · Over -120 / Under -117 · 2 books

Case for the over

Over 17.5 in 4 of 7 games this season (newest first: 26, 18, 10, 23, 17, 8, 18).
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 30.5 a game so far; 0.562 points per minute projects 19.1, +9% against the 17.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 14.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 12.0 on the season. a hint, not a finding
UTA have allowed 117.6 points a game over 11 games, the 8th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
UTA allow 114.1 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs UTA (guards; usage 18.6% to 28.6%, 22.5 to 38.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Klay Thompson (MIA) 11 vs 14.7 in his other games (Nov 10); Davion Mitchell (MIA) 19 vs 16.2 in his other games (Nov 10); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 26 vs 17.3 in his other games (Nov 8) and 7 more; mean +0.8 points against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

The projection assumes 34.0 minutes, more than his 30.5 a game so far.

Rebounds 4.5 · Over -120 / Under -120 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 4.5 in 5 of 7 games this season (newest first: 7, 8, 7, 8, 6, 2, 3); season average 5.9, last 3 average 7.3.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 30.5 a game so far; 0.192 rebounds per minute projects 6.5, +45% against the 4.5 line.
UTA have allowed 45.8 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 8th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
UTA miss 49.3 shots a game, the 9th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
UTA average 103.1 possessions a game, the 7th-fastest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs UTA (guards; usage 18.6% to 28.6%, 22.5 to 38.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 4 vs 5.0 in his other games (Nov 8); Kyrie Irving (DAL) 2 vs 3.4 in his other games (Nov 6); Jeremiah Fears (NOP) 6 vs 4.9 in his other games (Nov 4) and 5 more; mean +0.5 rebounds against their own averages over 10 games from 8 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

The projection assumes 34.0 minutes, more than his 30.5 a game so far.

Assists 4.5 · Over -120 / Under -120 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 4.5 in 5 of 7 games this season (newest first: 5, 6, 6, 3, 10, 1, 5); season average 5.1, last 3 average 5.7.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 30.5 a game so far; 0.168 assists per minute projects 5.7, +27% against the 4.5 line.
UTA average 103.1 possessions a game, the 7th-fastest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs UTA (guards; usage 18.6% to 28.6%, 22.5 to 38.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 1 vs 4.3 in his other games (Nov 8); Kyrie Irving (DAL) 2 vs 4.6 in his other games (Nov 6); Jeremiah Fears (NOP) 2 vs 5.7 in his other games (Nov 4) and 5 more; mean +0.2 assists against their own averages over 10 games from 8 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

The projection assumes 34.0 minutes, more than his 30.5 a game so far.
UTA have allowed 22.5 assists a game over 11 games, the 2nd-fewest of 30; to guards, 13.8 a game, the 5th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 1.5 · Over -160 / Under +110 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 4 of 7 games this season (newest first: 2, 2, 1, 1, 3, 0, 5); season average 2.0, last 3 average 1.7.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 30.5 a game so far; 0.066 threes per minute projects 2.2, +48% against the 1.5 line.
UTA average 103.1 possessions a game, the 7th-fastest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs UTA (guards; usage 18.6% to 28.6%, 22.5 to 38.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Davion Mitchell (MIA) 3 vs 2.2 in his other games (Nov 10); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 4 vs 1.7 in his other games (Nov 8); Jeremiah Fears (NOP) 1 vs 1.1 in his other games (Nov 4) and 4 more; mean +0.6 threes made against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the over at 56% (1 book at 1.5).

Case for the under

The projection assumes 34.0 minutes, more than his 30.5 a game so far.
UTA have allowed 12.2 threes made a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30; to guards, 6.5 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
UTA allow 34.8 three-point attempts a game, the 7th-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 27.5 · Over -105 / Under -132 · 2 books

Case for the over

Over 27.5 in 4 of 7 games this season (newest first: 38, 32, 23, 34, 33, 11, 26); last 3 average 31.0.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 30.5 a game so far; 0.922 PRA per minute projects 31.3, +14% against the 27.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 14.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 12.0 on the season. a hint, not a finding
UTA allow 114.1 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
UTA average 103.1 possessions a game, the 7th-fastest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs UTA (guards; usage 18.6% to 28.6%, 22.5 to 38.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Klay Thompson (MIA) 14 vs 18.2 in his other games (Nov 10); Davion Mitchell (MIA) 32 vs 26.4 in his other games (Nov 10); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 31 vs 26.6 in his other games (Nov 8) and 7 more; mean +1.6 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

The projection assumes 34.0 minutes, more than his 30.5 a game so far.
To guards, UTA have allowed 90.4 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 10th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 23.5 · Over -110 / Under -130 · 1 book

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 25.3 points + rebounds, above the 23.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 30.5 a game so far; 0.753 PR per minute projects 25.6, +9% against the 23.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 14.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 12.0 on the season. a hint, not a finding
UTA have allowed 163.5 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 7th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
UTA allow 114.1 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs UTA (guards; usage 18.6% to 28.6%, 22.5 to 38.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Klay Thompson (MIA) 12 vs 16.3 in his other games (Nov 10); Davion Mitchell (MIA) 24 vs 17.9 in his other games (Nov 10); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 30 vs 22.3 in his other games (Nov 8) and 7 more; mean +1.4 points + rebounds against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 23.5 in 4 of 7 games this season (newest first: 33, 26, 17, 31, 23, 10, 21).
The projection assumes 34.0 minutes, more than his 30.5 a game so far.

Pts+Ast 22.5 · Over -125 / Under -120 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 22.5 in 5 of 7 games this season (newest first: 31, 24, 16, 26, 27, 9, 23); last 3 average 23.7.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 30.5 a game so far; 0.730 PA per minute projects 24.8, +10% against the 22.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 14.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 12.0 on the season. a hint, not a finding
UTA allow 114.1 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
UTA average 103.1 possessions a game, the 7th-fastest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs UTA (guards; usage 18.6% to 28.6%, 22.5 to 38.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Klay Thompson (MIA) 13 vs 16.6 in his other games (Nov 10); Davion Mitchell (MIA) 27 vs 24.7 in his other games (Nov 10); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 27 vs 21.6 in his other games (Nov 8) and 7 more; mean +1.0 points + assists against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

The projection assumes 34.0 minutes, more than his 30.5 a game so far.
To guards, UTA have allowed 73.2 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 9.5 · Over -105 / Under -135 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 9.5 in 5 of 7 games this season (newest first: 12, 14, 13, 11, 16, 3, 8); season average 11.0, last 3 average 13.0.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 30.5 a game so far; 0.360 RA per minute projects 12.3, +29% against the 9.5 line.
UTA miss 49.3 shots a game, the 9th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
UTA average 103.1 possessions a game, the 7th-fastest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs UTA (guards; usage 18.6% to 28.6%, 22.5 to 38.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Davion Mitchell (MIA) 13 vs 10.2 in his other games (Nov 10); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 5 vs 9.3 in his other games (Nov 8); Kyrie Irving (DAL) 4 vs 8.0 in his other games (Nov 6) and 6 more; mean +0.9 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

The projection assumes 34.0 minutes, more than his 30.5 a game so far.
UTA have allowed 68.3 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 10th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team; to guards, 31.0 a game, the 9th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 1.5 · Over -145 / Under -100 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 4 of 7 games this season (newest first: 4, 4, 1, 2, 0, 1, 2); season average 2.0, last 3 average 3.0.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 30.5 a game so far; 0.066 steals per minute projects 2.2, +48% against the 1.5 line.
UTA have allowed 9.6 steals a game over 11 games, the 3rd-most of 30, tied with 1 other team; to guards, 5.9 a game, the 4th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
UTA commit 17.0 turnovers a game, the 4th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs UTA (guards; usage 18.6% to 28.6%, 22.5 to 38.5 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): Davion Mitchell (MIA) 2 vs 1.2 in his other games (Nov 10); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 2 vs 1.2 in his other games (Nov 8); Kyrie Irving (DAL) 3 vs 1.0 in his other games (Nov 6) and 3 more; mean +1.4 steals against their own averages over 7 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the over at 54% (1 book at 1.5).

Case for the under

The projection assumes 34.0 minutes, more than his 30.5 a game so far.