LAL · G · 2026 season

Austin Reaves

Next game: at MIL, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 19:02 UTC · lines as of 18:50 UTC

Projected 35.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 11 games this season

Points 22.5 · Over -110 / Under -120 · 11 books

Case for the over

Over 22.5 in 7 of 11 games this season (newest first: 43, 25, 21, 27, 19, 21, 16, 26, 29, 28, ...); season average 25.3, last 3 average 29.7.
Projected for 35.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 36.2 a game so far; 0.698 points per minute projects 24.4, +9% against the 22.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 21.3 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 16.3 on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL have allowed 121.2 points a game over 11 games, the 3rd-most of 30; to guards, 66.1 a game, the 8th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL allow 120.5 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 22.1% to 32.1%, 28.2 to 44.2 min a game, at least 27.0 min in the game): RJ Barrett (TOR) 27 vs 20.7 in his other games (Nov 6); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 19 vs 18.0 in his other games (Nov 2); Tyrese Haliburton (IND) 22 vs 21.7 in his other games (Oct 26) and 4 more; mean +3.0 points against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 3.5 · Over -125 / Under -105 · 14 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 3.7 rebounds, above the 3.5 line. a hint, not a finding
MIL have allowed 48.9 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 2nd-most of 30; to guards, 19.8 a game, the 5th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL miss 51.0 shots a game, the 4th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 22.1% to 32.1%, 28.2 to 44.2 min a game, at least 27.0 min in the game): Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 12 vs 4.2 in his other games (Nov 2); Tyrese Haliburton (IND) 6 vs 4.0 in his other games (Oct 26); Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 4 vs 3.5 in his other games (Oct 24) and 2 more; mean +1.7 rebounds against their own averages over 5 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 3.5 in 6 of 11 games this season (newest first: 5, 3, 3, 2, 3, 4, 6, 4, 1, 2, ...); season average 3.4.
Projected for 35.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 36.2 a game so far; 0.093 rebounds per minute projects 3.3, -7% against the 3.5 line.
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Assists 5.5 · Over +120 / Under -167 · 9 books

Case for the over

MIL have allowed 27.8 assists a game over 11 games, the 6th-most of 30; to guards, 18.8 a game, the 4th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 22.1% to 32.1%, 28.2 to 44.2 min a game, at least 27.0 min in the game): RJ Barrett (TOR) 5 vs 3.7 in his other games (Nov 6); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 8 vs 3.6 in his other games (Nov 2); Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 4 vs 5.5 in his other games (Oct 24) and 1 more; mean +1.4 assists against their own averages over 4 games from 4 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 5.5 in 8 of 11 games this season (newest first: 4, 2, 4, 5, 4, 5, 1, 7, 4, 9, ...); season average 4.6, last 3 average 3.3.
Projected for 35.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 36.2 a game so far; 0.128 assists per minute projects 4.5, -18% against the 5.5 line.
He has assisted on 15.2% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3, down from 19% on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 58% (9 books at 5.5).

Threes 2.5 · Over +130 / Under -178 · 14 books

Case for the over

MIL have allowed 14.8 threes made a game over 11 games, the 4th-most of 30; to guards, 9.6 a game, the 5th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL allow 41.5 three-point attempts a game, the 3rd-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 2.5 in 6 of 11 games this season (newest first: 4, 1, 1, 4, 2, 1, 1, 4, 4, 3, ...); season average 2.4, last 3 average 2.0.
Projected for 35.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 36.2 a game so far; 0.065 threes per minute projects 2.3, -9% against the 2.5 line.
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 59% (14 books at 2.5).

Pts+Reb+Ast 31.5 · Over -110 / Under -120 · 12 books

Case for the over

Over 31.5 in 6 of 11 games this season (newest first: 52, 30, 28, 34, 26, 30, 23, 37, 34, 39, ...); season average 33.3, last 3 average 36.7.
Shot volume is up: 21.3 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 16.3 on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL have allowed 197.9 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 2nd-most of 30; to guards, 104.7 a game, the 7th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL allow 120.5 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 22.1% to 32.1%, 28.2 to 44.2 min a game, at least 27.0 min in the game): RJ Barrett (TOR) 39 vs 30.0 in his other games (Nov 6); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 39 vs 25.8 in his other games (Nov 2); Tyrese Haliburton (IND) 37 vs 35.3 in his other games (Oct 26) and 4 more; mean +5.1 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 26.5 · Over -108 / Under -122 · 5 books

Case for the over

Over 26.5 in 7 of 11 games this season (newest first: 48, 28, 24, 29, 22, 25, 22, 30, 30, 30, ...); season average 28.6, last 3 average 33.3.
Projected for 35.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 36.2 a game so far; 0.791 PR per minute projects 27.7, +4% against the 26.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 21.3 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 16.3 on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL have allowed 170.1 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 2nd-most of 30; to guards, 85.9 a game, the 7th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL allow 120.5 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 22.1% to 32.1%, 28.2 to 44.2 min a game, at least 27.0 min in the game): RJ Barrett (TOR) 34 vs 26.3 in his other games (Nov 6); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 31 vs 22.2 in his other games (Nov 2); Tyrese Haliburton (IND) 28 vs 25.7 in his other games (Oct 26) and 4 more; mean +3.9 points + rebounds against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 27.5 · Over -115 / Under -115 · 8 books

Case for the over

Over 27.5 in 6 of 11 games this season (newest first: 47, 27, 25, 32, 23, 26, 17, 33, 33, 37, ...); season average 29.9, last 3 average 33.0.
Projected for 35.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 36.2 a game so far; 0.826 PA per minute projects 28.9, +5% against the 27.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 21.3 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 16.3 on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL have allowed 149.0 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 4th-most of 30; to guards, 84.9 a game, the 8th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL allow 120.5 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 22.1% to 32.1%, 28.2 to 44.2 min a game, at least 27.0 min in the game): RJ Barrett (TOR) 32 vs 24.3 in his other games (Nov 6); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 27 vs 21.6 in his other games (Nov 2); Tyrese Haliburton (IND) 31 vs 31.3 in his other games (Oct 26) and 4 more; mean +4.3 points + assists against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 8.5 · Over -130 / Under -100 · 9 books

Case for the over

MIL have allowed 76.7 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 2nd-most of 30; to guards, 38.6 a game, the 4th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL miss 51.0 shots a game, the 4th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 22.1% to 32.1%, 28.2 to 44.2 min a game, at least 27.0 min in the game): RJ Barrett (TOR) 12 vs 9.3 in his other games (Nov 6); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 20 vs 7.8 in his other games (Nov 2); Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 8 vs 8.9 in his other games (Oct 24) and 3 more; mean +2.2 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 6 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 53% (9 books at 8.5).

Case for the under

Under 8.5 in 6 of 11 games this season (newest first: 9, 5, 7, 7, 7, 9, 7, 11, 5, 11, ...); season average 8.0, last 3 average 7.0.
Projected for 35.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 36.2 a game so far; 0.221 RA per minute projects 7.7, -9% against the 8.5 line.
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 0.5 · Over -200 / Under +140 · 5 books

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 6 of 11 games this season (newest first: 0, 4, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 2, ...); season average 1.0, last 3 average 1.3.
Projected for 35.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 36.2 a game so far; 0.028 steals per minute projects 1.0, +93% against the 0.5 line.
MIL have allowed 9.6 steals a game over 11 games, the 3rd-most of 30, tied with 1 other team; to guards, 5.0 a game, the 9th-most of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 62% (5 books at 0.5).

Case for the under

MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 22.1% to 32.1%, 28.2 to 44.2 min a game, at least 27.0 min in the game): RJ Barrett (TOR) 0 vs 0.4 in his other games (Nov 6); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 1 vs 1.3 in his other games (Nov 2); Tyrese Haliburton (IND) 1 vs 1.3 in his other games (Oct 26) and 4 more; mean -0.2 steals against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Blocks 0.5 · Over +140 / Under -195 · 1 book

Case for the over

MIL have allowed 5.9 blocks a game over 11 games, the 4th-most of 30; to guards, 2.3 a game, the 3rd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL take 89.5 shots a game, the 8th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 0.5 in 8 of 11 games this season (newest first: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 2, 0, ...); season average 0.4, last 3 average 0.0.
Projected for 35.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 36.2 a game so far; 0.010 blocks per minute projects 0.4, -30% against the 0.5 line.
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 22.1% to 32.1%, 28.2 to 44.2 min a game, at least 27.0 min in the game): RJ Barrett (TOR) 0 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 6); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 1 vs 0.4 in his other games (Nov 2); Tyrese Haliburton (IND) 1 vs 0.7 in his other games (Oct 26) and 4 more; mean -0.1 blocks against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the under at 61% (1 book at 0.5).

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

11 games played · averaging 25.3 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 25.5 · POINTS · 2021–2026

HIT RATE13.6%51 of 374 games

INTERVAL10.5%–17.5%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+633at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+850if the rate is 10.5%

Austin has cleared 25.5 points in 13.6% of 374 games since 2021, and in 50.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +633 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-08

DET

AWAY

36.7MIN

43POINTS

5 · 4 · 14-27

ABOVE

FG: 14-27
3PT: 4-6
FT: 11-11
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 67.5
USG%: 38.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +21
PRA: 52

2026-11-06

POR

HOME

38.0MIN

25POINTS

3 · 2 · 8-22

BELOW

FG: 8-22
3PT: 1-8
FT: 8-8
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 49.0
USG%: 28.9
STL: 4
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: -6
PRA: 30

2026-11-04

SAC

AWAY

37.2MIN

21POINTS

3 · 4 · 7-15

BELOW

FG: 7-15
3PT: 1-4
FT: 6-6
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 59.5
USG%: 21.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +14
PRA: 28

2026-11-02

MIA

HOME

34.2MIN

27POINTS

2 · 5 · 10-15

ABOVE

FG: 10-15
3PT: 4-5
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 80.5
USG%: 26.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 5
PF: 3
+/−: +21
PRA: 34

2026-11-01

TOR

HOME

38.7MIN

19POINTS

3 · 4 · 6-16

BELOW

FG: 6-16
3PT: 2-7
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 51.0
USG%: 23.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: +14
PRA: 26

2026-10-30

AWAY

37.3MIN

21POINTS

4 · 5 · 9-19

BELOW

FG: 9-19
3PT: 1-6
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 52.8
USG%: 31.9
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 8
PF: 4
+/−: -13
PRA: 30

2026-10-28

LAC

AWAY

30.7MIN

16POINTS

6 · 1 · 6-16

BELOW

FG: 6-16
3PT: 1-6
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 45.0
USG%: 35.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 8
PF: 1
+/−: +7
PRA: 23

2026-10-27

POR

HOME

39.3MIN

26POINTS

4 · 7 · 8-13

ABOVE

FG: 8-13
3PT: 4-8
FT: 6-7
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 80.8
USG%: 18.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 5
+/−: 0
PRA: 37

2026-10-25

UTAH

AWAY

35.7MIN

29POINTS

1 · 4 · 7-12

ABOVE

FG: 7-12
3PT: 4-5
FT: 11-13
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 81.8
USG%: 25.9
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 3
PF: 5
+/−: +14
PRA: 34

2026-10-23

LAC

HOME

38.5MIN

28POINTS

2 · 9 · 10-13

ABOVE

FG: 10-13
3PT: 3-5
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 89.5
USG%: 24.3
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 6
PF: 4
+/−: +14
PRA: 39

2026-10-21

HOME

31.9MIN

23POINTS

4 · 6 · 6-11

BELOW

FG: 6-11
3PT: 1-3
FT: 10-10
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 74.7
USG%: 26.3
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 2
+/−: +25
PRA: 33

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: at MIL, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 19:02 UTC · lines as of 18:50 UTC

Projected 35.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 11 games this season

Points 22.5 · Over -110 / Under -120 · 11 books

Case for the over

Over 22.5 in 7 of 11 games this season (newest first: 43, 25, 21, 27, 19, 21, 16, 26, 29, 28, ...); season average 25.3, last 3 average 29.7.
Projected for 35.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 36.2 a game so far; 0.698 points per minute projects 24.4, +9% against the 22.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 21.3 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 16.3 on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL have allowed 121.2 points a game over 11 games, the 3rd-most of 30; to guards, 66.1 a game, the 8th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL allow 120.5 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 22.1% to 32.1%, 28.2 to 44.2 min a game, at least 27.0 min in the game): RJ Barrett (TOR) 27 vs 20.7 in his other games (Nov 6); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 19 vs 18.0 in his other games (Nov 2); Tyrese Haliburton (IND) 22 vs 21.7 in his other games (Oct 26) and 4 more; mean +3.0 points against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 3.5 · Over -125 / Under -105 · 14 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 3.7 rebounds, above the 3.5 line. a hint, not a finding
MIL have allowed 48.9 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 2nd-most of 30; to guards, 19.8 a game, the 5th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL miss 51.0 shots a game, the 4th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 22.1% to 32.1%, 28.2 to 44.2 min a game, at least 27.0 min in the game): Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 12 vs 4.2 in his other games (Nov 2); Tyrese Haliburton (IND) 6 vs 4.0 in his other games (Oct 26); Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 4 vs 3.5 in his other games (Oct 24) and 2 more; mean +1.7 rebounds against their own averages over 5 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 3.5 in 6 of 11 games this season (newest first: 5, 3, 3, 2, 3, 4, 6, 4, 1, 2, ...); season average 3.4.
Projected for 35.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 36.2 a game so far; 0.093 rebounds per minute projects 3.3, -7% against the 3.5 line.
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Assists 5.5 · Over +120 / Under -167 · 9 books

Case for the over

MIL have allowed 27.8 assists a game over 11 games, the 6th-most of 30; to guards, 18.8 a game, the 4th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 22.1% to 32.1%, 28.2 to 44.2 min a game, at least 27.0 min in the game): RJ Barrett (TOR) 5 vs 3.7 in his other games (Nov 6); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 8 vs 3.6 in his other games (Nov 2); Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 4 vs 5.5 in his other games (Oct 24) and 1 more; mean +1.4 assists against their own averages over 4 games from 4 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 5.5 in 8 of 11 games this season (newest first: 4, 2, 4, 5, 4, 5, 1, 7, 4, 9, ...); season average 4.6, last 3 average 3.3.
Projected for 35.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 36.2 a game so far; 0.128 assists per minute projects 4.5, -18% against the 5.5 line.
He has assisted on 15.2% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3, down from 19% on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 58% (9 books at 5.5).

Threes 2.5 · Over +130 / Under -178 · 14 books

Case for the over

MIL have allowed 14.8 threes made a game over 11 games, the 4th-most of 30; to guards, 9.6 a game, the 5th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL allow 41.5 three-point attempts a game, the 3rd-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 2.5 in 6 of 11 games this season (newest first: 4, 1, 1, 4, 2, 1, 1, 4, 4, 3, ...); season average 2.4, last 3 average 2.0.
Projected for 35.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 36.2 a game so far; 0.065 threes per minute projects 2.3, -9% against the 2.5 line.
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 59% (14 books at 2.5).

Pts+Reb+Ast 31.5 · Over -110 / Under -120 · 12 books

Case for the over

Over 31.5 in 6 of 11 games this season (newest first: 52, 30, 28, 34, 26, 30, 23, 37, 34, 39, ...); season average 33.3, last 3 average 36.7.
Shot volume is up: 21.3 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 16.3 on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL have allowed 197.9 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 2nd-most of 30; to guards, 104.7 a game, the 7th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL allow 120.5 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 22.1% to 32.1%, 28.2 to 44.2 min a game, at least 27.0 min in the game): RJ Barrett (TOR) 39 vs 30.0 in his other games (Nov 6); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 39 vs 25.8 in his other games (Nov 2); Tyrese Haliburton (IND) 37 vs 35.3 in his other games (Oct 26) and 4 more; mean +5.1 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 26.5 · Over -108 / Under -122 · 5 books

Case for the over

Over 26.5 in 7 of 11 games this season (newest first: 48, 28, 24, 29, 22, 25, 22, 30, 30, 30, ...); season average 28.6, last 3 average 33.3.
Projected for 35.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 36.2 a game so far; 0.791 PR per minute projects 27.7, +4% against the 26.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 21.3 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 16.3 on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL have allowed 170.1 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 2nd-most of 30; to guards, 85.9 a game, the 7th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL allow 120.5 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 22.1% to 32.1%, 28.2 to 44.2 min a game, at least 27.0 min in the game): RJ Barrett (TOR) 34 vs 26.3 in his other games (Nov 6); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 31 vs 22.2 in his other games (Nov 2); Tyrese Haliburton (IND) 28 vs 25.7 in his other games (Oct 26) and 4 more; mean +3.9 points + rebounds against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 27.5 · Over -115 / Under -115 · 8 books

Case for the over

Over 27.5 in 6 of 11 games this season (newest first: 47, 27, 25, 32, 23, 26, 17, 33, 33, 37, ...); season average 29.9, last 3 average 33.0.
Projected for 35.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 36.2 a game so far; 0.826 PA per minute projects 28.9, +5% against the 27.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 21.3 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 16.3 on the season. a hint, not a finding
MIL have allowed 149.0 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 4th-most of 30; to guards, 84.9 a game, the 8th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL allow 120.5 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-highest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 22.1% to 32.1%, 28.2 to 44.2 min a game, at least 27.0 min in the game): RJ Barrett (TOR) 32 vs 24.3 in his other games (Nov 6); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 27 vs 21.6 in his other games (Nov 2); Tyrese Haliburton (IND) 31 vs 31.3 in his other games (Oct 26) and 4 more; mean +4.3 points + assists against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 8.5 · Over -130 / Under -100 · 9 books

Case for the over

MIL have allowed 76.7 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 2nd-most of 30; to guards, 38.6 a game, the 4th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL miss 51.0 shots a game, the 4th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 22.1% to 32.1%, 28.2 to 44.2 min a game, at least 27.0 min in the game): RJ Barrett (TOR) 12 vs 9.3 in his other games (Nov 6); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 20 vs 7.8 in his other games (Nov 2); Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 8 vs 8.9 in his other games (Oct 24) and 3 more; mean +2.2 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 6 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 53% (9 books at 8.5).

Case for the under

Under 8.5 in 6 of 11 games this season (newest first: 9, 5, 7, 7, 7, 9, 7, 11, 5, 11, ...); season average 8.0, last 3 average 7.0.
Projected for 35.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 36.2 a game so far; 0.221 RA per minute projects 7.7, -9% against the 8.5 line.
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 0.5 · Over -200 / Under +140 · 5 books

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 6 of 11 games this season (newest first: 0, 4, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 2, ...); season average 1.0, last 3 average 1.3.
Projected for 35.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 36.2 a game so far; 0.028 steals per minute projects 1.0, +93% against the 0.5 line.
MIL have allowed 9.6 steals a game over 11 games, the 3rd-most of 30, tied with 1 other team; to guards, 5.0 a game, the 9th-most of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 62% (5 books at 0.5).

Case for the under

MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 22.1% to 32.1%, 28.2 to 44.2 min a game, at least 27.0 min in the game): RJ Barrett (TOR) 0 vs 0.4 in his other games (Nov 6); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 1 vs 1.3 in his other games (Nov 2); Tyrese Haliburton (IND) 1 vs 1.3 in his other games (Oct 26) and 4 more; mean -0.2 steals against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Blocks 0.5 · Over +140 / Under -195 · 1 book

Case for the over

MIL have allowed 5.9 blocks a game over 11 games, the 4th-most of 30; to guards, 2.3 a game, the 3rd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MIL take 89.5 shots a game, the 8th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 0.5 in 8 of 11 games this season (newest first: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 2, 0, ...); season average 0.4, last 3 average 0.0.
Projected for 35.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 36.2 a game so far; 0.010 blocks per minute projects 0.4, -30% against the 0.5 line.
MIL average 100.6 possessions a game, the 9th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MIL (guards; usage 22.1% to 32.1%, 28.2 to 44.2 min a game, at least 27.0 min in the game): RJ Barrett (TOR) 0 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 6); Ayo Dosunmu (MIN) 1 vs 0.4 in his other games (Nov 2); Tyrese Haliburton (IND) 1 vs 0.7 in his other games (Oct 26) and 4 more; mean -0.1 blocks against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the under at 61% (1 book at 0.5).