BOS · G · 2026 season

Baylor Scheierman

Next game: at TOR, Thu 00:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 88 minutes before tip, 22:32 UTC · lines as of 22:15 UTC

Projected 28.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 11 games this season

Points 7.5 · Over -120 / Under -113 · 9 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.0 a game so far; 0.291 points per minute projects 8.2, +9% against the 7.5 line.
TOR average 103.8 possessions a game, the 5th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs TOR (guards; usage 7.5% to 17.5%, 12.0 to 28.0 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): AJ Green (MIL) 12 vs 6.3 in his other games (Nov 6); Quentin Grimes (LAL) 7 vs 8.1 in his other games (Nov 1); Matisse Thybulle (LAL) 6 vs 7.1 in his other games (Nov 1) and 4 more; mean +1.5 points against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 7.5 in 7 of 11 games this season (newest first: 5, 7, 5, 9, 11, 10, 2, 3, 2, 2, ...); season average 5.8, last 3 average 5.7.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 20.0 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Rebounds 4.5 · Over -100 / Under -136 · 9 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.0 a game so far; 0.191 rebounds per minute projects 5.4, +19% against the 4.5 line.
TOR miss 50.0 shots a game, the 6th-most of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
TOR average 103.8 possessions a game, the 5th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs TOR (guards; usage 7.5% to 17.5%, 12.0 to 28.0 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Quentin Grimes (LAL) 1 vs 2.7 in his other games (Nov 1); Jase Richardson (ORL) 6 vs 1.6 in his other games (Oct 30); Bilal Coulibaly (WAS) 6 vs 3.4 in his other games (Oct 23); mean +1.7 rebounds against their own averages over 3 games from 3 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 4.5 in 8 of 11 games this season (newest first: 3, 1, 4, 11, 5, 2, 3, 4, 6, 0, ...); season average 3.8, last 3 average 2.7.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 20.0 a game so far.
He has grabbed 7.8% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3, down from 9.5% on the season (10 of 11 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
TOR have allowed 41.2 rebounds a game over 10 games, the 5th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 54% (9 books at 4.5).

Assists 1.5 · Over -165 / Under +117 · 2 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.0 a game so far; 0.064 assists per minute projects 1.8, +19% against the 1.5 line.
TOR allow 47.8% shooting from the field, the 7th-highest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
TOR average 103.8 possessions a game, the 5th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 58% (2 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 6 of 11 games this season (newest first: 2, 0, 2, 1, 2, 1, 3, 1, 2, 0, ...); season average 1.3, last 3 average 1.3.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 20.0 a game so far.

Threes 1.5 · Over -118 / Under -114 · 9 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.0 a game so far; 0.064 threes per minute projects 1.8, +19% against the 1.5 line.
TOR average 103.8 possessions a game, the 5th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs TOR (guards; usage 7.5% to 17.5%, 12.0 to 28.0 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): AJ Green (MIL) 4 vs 1.8 in his other games (Nov 6); Quentin Grimes (LAL) 1 vs 0.7 in his other games (Nov 1); Matisse Thybulle (LAL) 2 vs 1.6 in his other games (Nov 1) and 4 more; mean +0.5 threes made against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 7 of 11 games this season (newest first: 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 2, 0, 1, 0, 0, ...); season average 1.3, last 3 average 1.0.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 20.0 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 2.3 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 2.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding
TOR allow 34.2 three-point attempts a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 14.5 · Over -106 / Under -124 · 3 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.0 a game so far; 0.546 PRA per minute projects 15.3, +5% against the 14.5 line.
TOR average 103.8 possessions a game, the 5th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs TOR (guards; usage 7.5% to 17.5%, 12.0 to 28.0 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): AJ Green (MIL) 13 vs 9.7 in his other games (Nov 6); Quentin Grimes (LAL) 11 vs 13.3 in his other games (Nov 1); Matisse Thybulle (LAL) 11 vs 9.5 in his other games (Nov 1) and 3 more; mean +1.3 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 6 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 14.5 in 9 of 11 games this season (newest first: 10, 8, 11, 21, 18, 13, 8, 8, 10, 2, ...); season average 10.9, last 3 average 9.7.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 20.0 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Pts+Reb 12.5 · Over -110 / Under -119 · 5 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.0 a game so far; 0.482 PR per minute projects 13.5, +8% against the 12.5 line.
TOR average 103.8 possessions a game, the 5th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs TOR (guards; usage 7.5% to 17.5%, 12.0 to 28.0 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): AJ Green (MIL) 13 vs 8.1 in his other games (Nov 6); Quentin Grimes (LAL) 8 vs 10.8 in his other games (Nov 1); Matisse Thybulle (LAL) 8 vs 8.6 in his other games (Nov 1) and 2 more; mean +2.2 points + rebounds against their own averages over 5 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 12.5 in 9 of 11 games this season (newest first: 8, 8, 9, 20, 16, 12, 5, 7, 8, 2, ...); season average 9.6, last 3 average 8.3.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 20.0 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

11 games played · averaging 5.8 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 5.5 · POINTS · 2024–2026

HIT RATE33.1%43 of 130 games

INTERVAL25.6%–41.5%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+202at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+291if the rate is 25.6%

Baylor has cleared 5.5 points in 33.1% of 130 games since 2024, and in 40.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +202 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-10

PHI

AWAY

17.7MIN

5POINTS

3 · 2 · 2-3

BELOW

FG: 2-3
3PT: 1-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 83.3
USG%: 7.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +3
PRA: 10

2026-11-08

MIL

AWAY

19.1MIN

7POINTS

1 · 0 · 2-6

ABOVE

FG: 2-6
3PT: 1-4
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 50.9
USG%: 17.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +15
PRA: 8

2026-11-06

CHA

AWAY

14.6MIN

5POINTS

4 · 2 · 1-2

BELOW

FG: 1-2
3PT: 1-2
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 86.8
USG%: 8.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +11
PRA: 11

2026-11-04

MIL

HOME

28.9MIN

9POINTS

11 · 1 · 3-7

ABOVE

FG: 3-7
3PT: 3-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 3/8
TS%: 64.3
USG%: 11.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +11
PRA: 21

2026-11-02

HOU

AWAY

27.0MIN

11POINTS

5 · 2 · 4-9

ABOVE

FG: 4-9
3PT: 3-6
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 61.1
USG%: 18.4
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -10
PRA: 18

2026-11-01

ORL

AWAY

20.3MIN

10POINTS

2 · 1 · 4-5

ABOVE

FG: 4-5
3PT: 2-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 100.0
USG%: 11.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +10
PRA: 13

2026-10-30

CHI

HOME

23.4MIN

2POINTS

3 · 3 · 1-3

BELOW

FG: 1-3
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/1
TS%: 33.3
USG%: 5.4
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +2
PRA: 8

2026-10-27

BKN

HOME

21.3MIN

3POINTS

4 · 1 · 1-5

BELOW

FG: 1-5
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 30.0
USG%: 10.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +7
PRA: 8

2026-10-26

CHI

HOME

18.2MIN

2POINTS

6 · 2 · 1-5

BELOW

FG: 1-5
3PT: 0-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 20.0
USG%: 16.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: -2
PRA: 10

2026-10-23

HOME

11.1MIN

2POINTS

0 · 0 · 1-4

BELOW

FG: 1-4
3PT: 0-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 25.0
USG%: 20.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +4
PRA: 2

2026-10-20

DET

AWAY

18.2MIN

8POINTS

3 · 0 · 3-4

ABOVE

FG: 3-4
3PT: 2-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 100.0
USG%: 11.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -10
PRA: 11

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: at TOR, Thu 00:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 88 minutes before tip, 22:32 UTC · lines as of 22:15 UTC

Projected 28.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 11 games this season

Points 7.5 · Over -120 / Under -113 · 9 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.0 a game so far; 0.291 points per minute projects 8.2, +9% against the 7.5 line.
TOR average 103.8 possessions a game, the 5th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs TOR (guards; usage 7.5% to 17.5%, 12.0 to 28.0 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): AJ Green (MIL) 12 vs 6.3 in his other games (Nov 6); Quentin Grimes (LAL) 7 vs 8.1 in his other games (Nov 1); Matisse Thybulle (LAL) 6 vs 7.1 in his other games (Nov 1) and 4 more; mean +1.5 points against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 7.5 in 7 of 11 games this season (newest first: 5, 7, 5, 9, 11, 10, 2, 3, 2, 2, ...); season average 5.8, last 3 average 5.7.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 20.0 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Rebounds 4.5 · Over -100 / Under -136 · 9 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.0 a game so far; 0.191 rebounds per minute projects 5.4, +19% against the 4.5 line.
TOR miss 50.0 shots a game, the 6th-most of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
TOR average 103.8 possessions a game, the 5th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs TOR (guards; usage 7.5% to 17.5%, 12.0 to 28.0 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Quentin Grimes (LAL) 1 vs 2.7 in his other games (Nov 1); Jase Richardson (ORL) 6 vs 1.6 in his other games (Oct 30); Bilal Coulibaly (WAS) 6 vs 3.4 in his other games (Oct 23); mean +1.7 rebounds against their own averages over 3 games from 3 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 4.5 in 8 of 11 games this season (newest first: 3, 1, 4, 11, 5, 2, 3, 4, 6, 0, ...); season average 3.8, last 3 average 2.7.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 20.0 a game so far.
He has grabbed 7.8% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3, down from 9.5% on the season (10 of 11 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
TOR have allowed 41.2 rebounds a game over 10 games, the 5th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 54% (9 books at 4.5).

Assists 1.5 · Over -165 / Under +117 · 2 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.0 a game so far; 0.064 assists per minute projects 1.8, +19% against the 1.5 line.
TOR allow 47.8% shooting from the field, the 7th-highest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
TOR average 103.8 possessions a game, the 5th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 58% (2 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 6 of 11 games this season (newest first: 2, 0, 2, 1, 2, 1, 3, 1, 2, 0, ...); season average 1.3, last 3 average 1.3.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 20.0 a game so far.

Threes 1.5 · Over -118 / Under -114 · 9 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.0 a game so far; 0.064 threes per minute projects 1.8, +19% against the 1.5 line.
TOR average 103.8 possessions a game, the 5th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs TOR (guards; usage 7.5% to 17.5%, 12.0 to 28.0 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): AJ Green (MIL) 4 vs 1.8 in his other games (Nov 6); Quentin Grimes (LAL) 1 vs 0.7 in his other games (Nov 1); Matisse Thybulle (LAL) 2 vs 1.6 in his other games (Nov 1) and 4 more; mean +0.5 threes made against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 7 of 11 games this season (newest first: 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 2, 0, 1, 0, 0, ...); season average 1.3, last 3 average 1.0.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 20.0 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 2.3 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 2.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding
TOR allow 34.2 three-point attempts a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 14.5 · Over -106 / Under -124 · 3 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.0 a game so far; 0.546 PRA per minute projects 15.3, +5% against the 14.5 line.
TOR average 103.8 possessions a game, the 5th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs TOR (guards; usage 7.5% to 17.5%, 12.0 to 28.0 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): AJ Green (MIL) 13 vs 9.7 in his other games (Nov 6); Quentin Grimes (LAL) 11 vs 13.3 in his other games (Nov 1); Matisse Thybulle (LAL) 11 vs 9.5 in his other games (Nov 1) and 3 more; mean +1.3 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 6 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 14.5 in 9 of 11 games this season (newest first: 10, 8, 11, 21, 18, 13, 8, 8, 10, 2, ...); season average 10.9, last 3 average 9.7.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 20.0 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Pts+Reb 12.5 · Over -110 / Under -119 · 5 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.0 a game so far; 0.482 PR per minute projects 13.5, +8% against the 12.5 line.
TOR average 103.8 possessions a game, the 5th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs TOR (guards; usage 7.5% to 17.5%, 12.0 to 28.0 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): AJ Green (MIL) 13 vs 8.1 in his other games (Nov 6); Quentin Grimes (LAL) 8 vs 10.8 in his other games (Nov 1); Matisse Thybulle (LAL) 8 vs 8.6 in his other games (Nov 1) and 2 more; mean +2.2 points + rebounds against their own averages over 5 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 12.5 in 9 of 11 games this season (newest first: 8, 8, 9, 20, 16, 12, 5, 7, 8, 2, ...); season average 9.6, last 3 average 8.3.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 20.0 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding