DEN · G-F · 2026 season

DeMar DeRozan

Next game: at MEM, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 19:02 UTC · lines as of 18:39 UTC

Projected 28.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 8 games this season

Points 10.5 · Over -125 / Under -110 · 9 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.9 a game so far; 0.428 points per minute projects 12.0, +14% against the 10.5 line.
MEM average 102.8 possessions a game, the 9th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MEM (guards; usage 16% to 26%, 15.9 to 31.9 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Jamal Shead (TOR) 20 vs 6.0 in his other games (Nov 9); Jared McCain (OKC) 21 vs 12.1 in his other games (Nov 6); Quenton Jackson (IND) 13 vs 9.7 in his other games (Nov 4) and 6 more; mean +1.8 points against their own averages over 10 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 9.0 points, below the 10.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 23.9 a game so far.
MEM allow 107.8 points per 100 possessions, the 9th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 2.5 · Over +130 / Under -180 · 4 books

Case for the over

MEM average 102.8 possessions a game, the 9th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 2.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 4, 1, 0, 1, 2, 4, 3, 2); season average 2.1, last 3 average 1.7.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 23.9 a game so far.
MEM have allowed 41.9 rebounds a game over 10 games, the 9th-fewest of 30; to guards, 15.8 a game, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MEM (guards; usage 16% to 26%, 15.9 to 31.9 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Jamal Shead (TOR) 2 vs 2.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Aaron Nesmith (IND) 2 vs 2.5 in his other games (Nov 4); Ja Morant (POR) 2 vs 2.7 in his other games (Oct 29); mean -0.4 rebounds against their own averages over 3 games from 3 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 60% (4 books at 2.5).

Assists 2.5 · Over +109 / Under -148 · 11 books

Case for the over

He averages 2.9 assists over 8 games, above the 2.5 line.
His last 3 games average 2.7 assists, above the 2.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.9 a game so far; 0.120 assists per minute projects 3.4, +35% against the 2.5 line.
MEM average 102.8 possessions a game, the 9th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 23.9 a game so far.
MEM have allowed 24.1 assists a game over 10 games, the 5th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team; to guards, 13.9 a game, the 6th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MEM allow 44.9% shooting from the field, the 10th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MEM (guards; usage 16% to 26%, 15.9 to 31.9 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Jared McCain (OKC) 0 vs 2.0 in his other games (Nov 6); Quenton Jackson (IND) 2 vs 2.7 in his other games (Nov 4); Aaron Nesmith (IND) 2 vs 1.8 in his other games (Nov 4) and 4 more; mean -0.2 assists against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 55% (11 books at 2.5).

Threes 0.5 · Over +115 / Under -161 · 6 books

Case for the over

MEM average 102.8 possessions a game, the 9th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MEM (guards; usage 16% to 26%, 15.9 to 31.9 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Jamal Shead (TOR) 4 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 9); Quenton Jackson (IND) 3 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 4); Jeremiah Fears (NOP) 0 vs 1.2 in his other games (Nov 2) and 1 more; mean +1.0 threes made against their own averages over 4 games from 4 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 0.5 in 7 of 8 games this season (newest first: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0); season average 0.2, last 3 average 0.0.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.9 a game so far; 0.010 threes per minute projects 0.3, -42% against the 0.5 line.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 23.9 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 1.0 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 1.5 on the season. a hint, not a finding
MEM have allowed 12.3 threes made a game over 10 games, the 10th-fewest of 30; to guards, 7.5 a game, the 9th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 57% (6 books at 0.5).

Pts+Reb+Ast 15.5 · Over -120 / Under -114 · 9 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.9 a game so far; 0.637 PRA per minute projects 17.8, +15% against the 15.5 line.
MEM average 102.8 possessions a game, the 9th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MEM (guards; usage 16% to 26%, 15.9 to 31.9 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Jamal Shead (TOR) 33 vs 14.7 in his other games (Nov 9); Jared McCain (OKC) 26 vs 17.3 in his other games (Nov 6); Quenton Jackson (IND) 22 vs 15.6 in his other games (Nov 4) and 5 more; mean +3.6 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 9 games from 8 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 15.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 13, 17, 10, 9, 13, 27, 18, 15); last 3 average 13.3.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 23.9 a game so far.
MEM have allowed 176.8 points + rebounds + assists a game over 10 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MEM allow 107.8 points per 100 possessions, the 9th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 13.5 · Over -110 / Under -122 · 6 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.9 a game so far; 0.517 PR per minute projects 14.5, +7% against the 13.5 line.
MEM average 102.8 possessions a game, the 9th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MEM (guards; usage 16% to 26%, 15.9 to 31.9 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Jamal Shead (TOR) 22 vs 8.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Jared McCain (OKC) 26 vs 15.3 in his other games (Nov 6); Quenton Jackson (IND) 20 vs 12.9 in his other games (Nov 4) and 6 more; mean +2.7 points + rebounds against their own averages over 10 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 13.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 11, 12, 9, 4, 8, 25, 15, 15); season average 12.4, last 3 average 10.7.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 23.9 a game so far.
MEM have allowed 152.7 points + rebounds a game over 10 games, the 10th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MEM allow 107.8 points per 100 possessions, the 9th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 13.5 · Over -115 / Under -116 · 8 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.9 a game so far; 0.548 PA per minute projects 15.4, +14% against the 13.5 line.
MEM average 102.8 possessions a game, the 9th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MEM (guards; usage 16% to 26%, 15.9 to 31.9 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Jamal Shead (TOR) 31 vs 12.6 in his other games (Nov 9); Jared McCain (OKC) 21 vs 14.1 in his other games (Nov 6); Quenton Jackson (IND) 15 vs 12.4 in his other games (Nov 4) and 6 more; mean +1.1 points + assists against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 13.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 9, 16, 10, 8, 11, 23, 15, 13); last 3 average 11.7.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 23.9 a game so far.
MEM have allowed 134.9 points + assists a game over 10 games, the 9th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MEM allow 107.8 points per 100 possessions, the 9th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 4.5 · Over -119 / Under -112 · 6 books

Case for the over

Over 4.5 in 6 of 8 games this season (newest first: 6, 6, 1, 6, 7, 6, 6, 2); season average 5.0.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.9 a game so far; 0.209 RA per minute projects 5.8, +30% against the 4.5 line.
MEM average 102.8 possessions a game, the 9th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 4.3 rebounds + assists, below the 4.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 23.9 a game so far.
MEM have allowed 66.0 rebounds + assists a game over 10 games, the 4th-fewest of 30; to guards, 29.7 a game, the 5th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MEM (guards; usage 16% to 26%, 15.9 to 31.9 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Jared McCain (OKC) 5 vs 5.2 in his other games (Nov 6); Quenton Jackson (IND) 9 vs 5.9 in his other games (Nov 4); Aaron Nesmith (IND) 4 vs 4.2 in his other games (Nov 4) and 3 more; mean -0.3 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 7 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 0.5 · Over -105 / Under -129 · 1 book

Case for the over

He averages 0.8 steals over 8 games, above the 0.5 line.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.9 a game so far; 0.031 steals per minute projects 0.9, +75% against the 0.5 line.
MEM commit 15.9 turnovers a game, the 9th-most of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MEM average 102.8 possessions a game, the 9th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MEM (guards; usage 16% to 26%, 15.9 to 31.9 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Jamal Shead (TOR) 2 vs 1.4 in his other games (Nov 9); Jared McCain (OKC) 4 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 6); Quenton Jackson (IND) 2 vs 1.3 in his other games (Nov 4) and 8 more; mean +0.2 steals against their own averages over 13 games from 11 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 0.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 0, 0, 0, 2, 2, 2, 0, 0); last 3 average 0.0.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 23.9 a game so far.

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

8 games played · averaging 10.3 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 10.5 · POINTS · 2019–2026

HIT RATE92.4%473 of 512 games

INTERVAL89.8%–94.4%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN-1213at that rate

AT THE FLOOR-909if the rate is 89.8%

DeMar has cleared 10.5 points in 92.4% of 512 games since 2019, and in 50.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs -1213 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-09

HOU

AWAY

19.2MIN

7POINTS

4 · 2 · 2-8

BELOW

FG: 2-8
3PT: 0-1
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 37.6
USG%: 22.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -16
PRA: 13

2026-11-07

IND

AWAY

21.9MIN

11POINTS

1 · 5 · 5-9

ABOVE

FG: 5-9
3PT: 0-2
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 55.7
USG%: 20.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +11
PRA: 17

2026-11-02

POR

HOME

20.1MIN

9POINTS

0 · 1 · 3-7

BELOW

FG: 3-7
3PT: 0-0
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 54.1
USG%: 19.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -9
PRA: 10

2026-10-30

PHX

AWAY

24.3MIN

3POINTS

1 · 5 · 1-5

BELOW

FG: 1-5
3PT: 0-1
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 1/0
TS%: 25.5
USG%: 12.1
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -4
PRA: 9

2026-10-28

AWAY

25.7MIN

6POINTS

2 · 5 · 1-6

BELOW

FG: 1-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 38.7
USG%: 15.6
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +2
PRA: 13

2026-10-26

HOME

28.5MIN

21POINTS

4 · 2 · 7-15

ABOVE

FG: 7-15
3PT: 2-5
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 61.0
USG%: 29.1
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -7
PRA: 27

2026-10-24

HOME

23.6MIN

12POINTS

3 · 3 · 4-10

ABOVE

FG: 4-10
3PT: 0-2
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 51.0
USG%: 22.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: -3
PRA: 18

2026-10-22

OKC

AWAY

28.2MIN

13POINTS

2 · 0 · 5-9

ABOVE

FG: 5-9
3PT: 0-1
FT: 3-6
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 55.8
USG%: 24.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 5
PF: 3
+/−: -10
PRA: 15

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: at MEM, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 19:02 UTC · lines as of 18:39 UTC

Projected 28.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 8 games this season

Points 10.5 · Over -125 / Under -110 · 9 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.9 a game so far; 0.428 points per minute projects 12.0, +14% against the 10.5 line.
MEM average 102.8 possessions a game, the 9th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MEM (guards; usage 16% to 26%, 15.9 to 31.9 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Jamal Shead (TOR) 20 vs 6.0 in his other games (Nov 9); Jared McCain (OKC) 21 vs 12.1 in his other games (Nov 6); Quenton Jackson (IND) 13 vs 9.7 in his other games (Nov 4) and 6 more; mean +1.8 points against their own averages over 10 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 9.0 points, below the 10.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 23.9 a game so far.
MEM allow 107.8 points per 100 possessions, the 9th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 2.5 · Over +130 / Under -180 · 4 books

Case for the over

MEM average 102.8 possessions a game, the 9th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 2.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 4, 1, 0, 1, 2, 4, 3, 2); season average 2.1, last 3 average 1.7.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 23.9 a game so far.
MEM have allowed 41.9 rebounds a game over 10 games, the 9th-fewest of 30; to guards, 15.8 a game, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MEM (guards; usage 16% to 26%, 15.9 to 31.9 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Jamal Shead (TOR) 2 vs 2.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Aaron Nesmith (IND) 2 vs 2.5 in his other games (Nov 4); Ja Morant (POR) 2 vs 2.7 in his other games (Oct 29); mean -0.4 rebounds against their own averages over 3 games from 3 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 60% (4 books at 2.5).

Assists 2.5 · Over +109 / Under -148 · 11 books

Case for the over

He averages 2.9 assists over 8 games, above the 2.5 line.
His last 3 games average 2.7 assists, above the 2.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.9 a game so far; 0.120 assists per minute projects 3.4, +35% against the 2.5 line.
MEM average 102.8 possessions a game, the 9th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 23.9 a game so far.
MEM have allowed 24.1 assists a game over 10 games, the 5th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team; to guards, 13.9 a game, the 6th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MEM allow 44.9% shooting from the field, the 10th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MEM (guards; usage 16% to 26%, 15.9 to 31.9 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Jared McCain (OKC) 0 vs 2.0 in his other games (Nov 6); Quenton Jackson (IND) 2 vs 2.7 in his other games (Nov 4); Aaron Nesmith (IND) 2 vs 1.8 in his other games (Nov 4) and 4 more; mean -0.2 assists against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 55% (11 books at 2.5).

Threes 0.5 · Over +115 / Under -161 · 6 books

Case for the over

MEM average 102.8 possessions a game, the 9th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MEM (guards; usage 16% to 26%, 15.9 to 31.9 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Jamal Shead (TOR) 4 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 9); Quenton Jackson (IND) 3 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 4); Jeremiah Fears (NOP) 0 vs 1.2 in his other games (Nov 2) and 1 more; mean +1.0 threes made against their own averages over 4 games from 4 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 0.5 in 7 of 8 games this season (newest first: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0); season average 0.2, last 3 average 0.0.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.9 a game so far; 0.010 threes per minute projects 0.3, -42% against the 0.5 line.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 23.9 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 1.0 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 1.5 on the season. a hint, not a finding
MEM have allowed 12.3 threes made a game over 10 games, the 10th-fewest of 30; to guards, 7.5 a game, the 9th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 57% (6 books at 0.5).

Pts+Reb+Ast 15.5 · Over -120 / Under -114 · 9 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.9 a game so far; 0.637 PRA per minute projects 17.8, +15% against the 15.5 line.
MEM average 102.8 possessions a game, the 9th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MEM (guards; usage 16% to 26%, 15.9 to 31.9 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Jamal Shead (TOR) 33 vs 14.7 in his other games (Nov 9); Jared McCain (OKC) 26 vs 17.3 in his other games (Nov 6); Quenton Jackson (IND) 22 vs 15.6 in his other games (Nov 4) and 5 more; mean +3.6 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 9 games from 8 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 15.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 13, 17, 10, 9, 13, 27, 18, 15); last 3 average 13.3.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 23.9 a game so far.
MEM have allowed 176.8 points + rebounds + assists a game over 10 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MEM allow 107.8 points per 100 possessions, the 9th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 13.5 · Over -110 / Under -122 · 6 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.9 a game so far; 0.517 PR per minute projects 14.5, +7% against the 13.5 line.
MEM average 102.8 possessions a game, the 9th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MEM (guards; usage 16% to 26%, 15.9 to 31.9 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Jamal Shead (TOR) 22 vs 8.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Jared McCain (OKC) 26 vs 15.3 in his other games (Nov 6); Quenton Jackson (IND) 20 vs 12.9 in his other games (Nov 4) and 6 more; mean +2.7 points + rebounds against their own averages over 10 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 13.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 11, 12, 9, 4, 8, 25, 15, 15); season average 12.4, last 3 average 10.7.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 23.9 a game so far.
MEM have allowed 152.7 points + rebounds a game over 10 games, the 10th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MEM allow 107.8 points per 100 possessions, the 9th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 13.5 · Over -115 / Under -116 · 8 books

Case for the over

Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.9 a game so far; 0.548 PA per minute projects 15.4, +14% against the 13.5 line.
MEM average 102.8 possessions a game, the 9th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MEM (guards; usage 16% to 26%, 15.9 to 31.9 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Jamal Shead (TOR) 31 vs 12.6 in his other games (Nov 9); Jared McCain (OKC) 21 vs 14.1 in his other games (Nov 6); Quenton Jackson (IND) 15 vs 12.4 in his other games (Nov 4) and 6 more; mean +1.1 points + assists against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 13.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 9, 16, 10, 8, 11, 23, 15, 13); last 3 average 11.7.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 23.9 a game so far.
MEM have allowed 134.9 points + assists a game over 10 games, the 9th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MEM allow 107.8 points per 100 possessions, the 9th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 4.5 · Over -119 / Under -112 · 6 books

Case for the over

Over 4.5 in 6 of 8 games this season (newest first: 6, 6, 1, 6, 7, 6, 6, 2); season average 5.0.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.9 a game so far; 0.209 RA per minute projects 5.8, +30% against the 4.5 line.
MEM average 102.8 possessions a game, the 9th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 4.3 rebounds + assists, below the 4.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 23.9 a game so far.
MEM have allowed 66.0 rebounds + assists a game over 10 games, the 4th-fewest of 30; to guards, 29.7 a game, the 5th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MEM (guards; usage 16% to 26%, 15.9 to 31.9 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Jared McCain (OKC) 5 vs 5.2 in his other games (Nov 6); Quenton Jackson (IND) 9 vs 5.9 in his other games (Nov 4); Aaron Nesmith (IND) 4 vs 4.2 in his other games (Nov 4) and 3 more; mean -0.3 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 7 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 0.5 · Over -105 / Under -129 · 1 book

Case for the over

He averages 0.8 steals over 8 games, above the 0.5 line.
Projected for 28.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.9 a game so far; 0.031 steals per minute projects 0.9, +75% against the 0.5 line.
MEM commit 15.9 turnovers a game, the 9th-most of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
MEM average 102.8 possessions a game, the 9th-fastest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs MEM (guards; usage 16% to 26%, 15.9 to 31.9 min a game, at least 20.0 min in the game): Jamal Shead (TOR) 2 vs 1.4 in his other games (Nov 9); Jared McCain (OKC) 4 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 6); Quenton Jackson (IND) 2 vs 1.3 in his other games (Nov 4) and 8 more; mean +0.2 steals against their own averages over 13 games from 11 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 0.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 0, 0, 0, 2, 2, 2, 0, 0); last 3 average 0.0.
The projection assumes 28.0 minutes, more than his 23.9 a game so far.