POR · F · 2026 season

Deni Avdija

Next game: vs OKC, Thu 03:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 21:02 UTC · lines as of 20:50 UTC

Projected 34.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 23.5 · Over -115 / Under -120 · 9 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

He averages 22.5 points over 10 games, below the 23.5 line.
His last 3 games average 20.3 points, below the 23.5 line. a hint, not a finding
OKC have allowed 105.9 points a game over 11 games, the 4th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 44.7 a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 5th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (forwards; usage 23.9% to 33.9%, 24.3 to 40.3 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): AJ Dybantsa (WAS) 19 vs 16.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Ty Jerome (MEM) 21 vs 27.4 in his other games (Nov 6); Cameron Boozer (MEM) 8 vs 17.3 in his other games (Nov 6) and 2 more; mean -4.2 points against their own averages over 5 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 6.5 · Over -137 / Under -100 · 15 books

Case for the over

Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 32.3 a game so far; 0.198 rebounds per minute projects 6.7, +4% against the 6.5 line.
OKC miss 49.4 shots a game, the 8th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 54% (15 books at 6.5).

Case for the under

To forwards, OKC have allowed 19.5 rebounds a game over 11 games, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (forwards; usage 23.9% to 33.9%, 24.3 to 40.3 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): AJ Dybantsa (WAS) 6 vs 6.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Ty Jerome (MEM) 2 vs 3.9 in his other games (Nov 6); Cameron Boozer (MEM) 12 vs 9.3 in his other games (Nov 6) and 2 more; mean -1.0 rebounds against their own averages over 5 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Assists 6.5 · Over -125 / Under -106 · 14 books

Case for the over

Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 32.3 a game so far; 0.201 assists per minute projects 6.8, +5% against the 6.5 line.

Case for the under

OKC have allowed 24.5 assists a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 8.5 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 41% shooting from the field, the lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 1.5 · Over -151 / Under +113 · 14 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2, 0, 4, 1, 2); season average 1.7, last 3 average 1.7.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 32.3 a game so far; 0.053 threes per minute projects 1.8, +19% against the 1.5 line.
OKC have allowed 14.4 threes made a game over 11 games, the 8th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 43.4 three-point attempts a game, the most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 56% (14 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

Shot volume is down: 3.7 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.9 on the season. a hint, not a finding
To forwards, OKC have allowed 5.5 threes made a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (forwards; usage 23.9% to 33.9%, 24.3 to 40.3 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): AJ Dybantsa (WAS) 1 vs 0.8 in his other games (Nov 7); Cameron Boozer (MEM) 0 vs 2.0 in his other games (Nov 6); Kevin Durant (HOU) 0 vs 1.4 in his other games (Oct 31) and 1 more; mean -0.7 threes made against their own averages over 4 games from 4 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 37.5 · Over -120 / Under -115 · 9 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

He averages 35.4 points + rebounds + assists over 10 games, below the 37.5 line.
His last 3 games average 33.3 points + rebounds + assists, below the 37.5 line. a hint, not a finding
OKC have allowed 175.2 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 72.8 a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 5th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (forwards; usage 23.9% to 33.9%, 24.3 to 40.3 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): AJ Dybantsa (WAS) 28 vs 24.7 in his other games (Nov 7); Ty Jerome (MEM) 28 vs 36.0 in his other games (Nov 6); Cameron Boozer (MEM) 24 vs 32.3 in his other games (Nov 6) and 2 more; mean -4.9 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 5 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 30.5 · Over -117 / Under -117 · 8 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 30.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 30, 19, 31, 28, 31, 29, 33, 27, 33, 28); season average 28.9, last 3 average 26.7.
OKC have allowed 150.6 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 64.3 a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 5th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (forwards; usage 23.9% to 33.9%, 24.3 to 40.3 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): AJ Dybantsa (WAS) 25 vs 22.7 in his other games (Nov 7); Ty Jerome (MEM) 23 vs 31.2 in his other games (Nov 6); Cameron Boozer (MEM) 20 vs 26.7 in his other games (Nov 6) and 2 more; mean -5.2 points + rebounds against their own averages over 5 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 30.5 · Over -120 / Under -115 · 7 books

Case for the over

Over 30.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 32, 16, 33, 33, 33, 26, 31, 32, 32, 22).

Case for the under

He averages 29.0 points + assists over 10 games, below the 30.5 line.
His last 3 games average 27.0 points + assists, below the 30.5 line. a hint, not a finding
OKC have allowed 130.5 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 5th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 53.3 a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 5th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (forwards; usage 23.9% to 33.9%, 24.3 to 40.3 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): AJ Dybantsa (WAS) 22 vs 18.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Ty Jerome (MEM) 26 vs 32.1 in his other games (Nov 6); Cameron Boozer (MEM) 12 vs 23.0 in his other games (Nov 6) and 2 more; mean -3.8 points + assists against their own averages over 5 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 13.5 · Over -120 / Under -110 · 9 books

Case for the over

OKC miss 49.4 shots a game, the 8th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

He averages 12.9 rebounds + assists over 10 games, below the 13.5 line.
His last 3 games average 13.0 rebounds + assists, below the 13.5 line. a hint, not a finding
To forwards, OKC have allowed 28.1 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (forwards; usage 23.9% to 33.9%, 24.3 to 40.3 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): AJ Dybantsa (WAS) 9 vs 8.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Ty Jerome (MEM) 7 vs 8.6 in his other games (Nov 6); Cameron Boozer (MEM) 16 vs 15.0 in his other games (Nov 6) and 2 more; mean -0.7 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 5 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 0.5 · Over -117 / Under -117 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 1, 1, 2, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 2); season average 0.9, last 3 average 1.3.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 32.3 a game so far; 0.028 steals per minute projects 0.9, +90% against the 0.5 line.

Case for the under

OKC have allowed 6.1 steals a game over 11 games, the fewest of 30; to forwards, 2.2 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC commit 12.1 turnovers a game, the fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (forwards; usage 23.9% to 33.9%, 24.3 to 40.3 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): AJ Dybantsa (WAS) 0 vs 1.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Ty Jerome (MEM) 0 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 6); Cameron Boozer (MEM) 0 vs 0.4 in his other games (Nov 6) and 1 more; mean -0.6 steals against their own averages over 4 games from 4 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Blocks 0.5 · Over +140 / Under -195 · 1 book

Case for the over

OKC take 90.6 shots a game, the 6th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 0.5 in 9 of 10 games this season (newest first: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0); season average 0.1, last 3 average 0.0.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 32.3 a game so far; 0.003 blocks per minute projects 0.1, -79% against the 0.5 line.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (forwards; usage 23.9% to 33.9%, 24.3 to 40.3 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): AJ Dybantsa (WAS) 0 vs 0.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Ty Jerome (MEM) 0 vs 0.2 in his other games (Nov 6); Cameron Boozer (MEM) 0 vs 0.7 in his other games (Nov 6) and 1 more; mean -0.5 blocks against their own averages over 4 games from 4 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the under at 61% (1 book at 0.5).

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

10 games played · averaging 22.5 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 22.5 · POINTS · 2020–2026

HIT RATE17.7%78 of 440 games

INTERVAL14.4%–21.6%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+464at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+592if the rate is 14.4%

Deni has cleared 22.5 points in 17.7% of 440 games since 2020, and in 60.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +464 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-10

OKC

HOME

33.8MIN

24POINTS

6 · 8 · 8-15

ABOVE

FG: 8-15
3PT: 2-4
FT: 6-8
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 64.8
USG%: 27.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 0
+/−: +21
PRA: 38

2026-11-07

HOME

23.5MIN

15POINTS

4 · 1 · 5-13

BELOW

FG: 5-13
3PT: 2-3
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 50.8
USG%: 31.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: -19
PRA: 20

2026-11-06

LAL

AWAY

38.6MIN

22POINTS

9 · 11 · 6-12

BELOW

FG: 6-12
3PT: 1-4
FT: 9-14
OREB/DREB: 2/7
TS%: 60.6
USG%: 29.5
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 8
PF: 5
+/−: 0
PRA: 42

2026-11-04

PHX

AWAY

35.3MIN

21POINTS

7 · 12 · 7-16

BELOW

FG: 7-16
3PT: 1-5
FT: 6-9
OREB/DREB: 0/7
TS%: 52.6
USG%: 25.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: +16
PRA: 40

2026-11-02

DEN

AWAY

34.8MIN

28POINTS

3 · 5 · 10-22

ABOVE

FG: 10-22
3PT: 2-9
FT: 6-9
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 53.9
USG%: 32.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -7
PRA: 36

2026-10-31

UTAH

AWAY

30.2MIN

24POINTS

5 · 2 · 6-12

ABOVE

FG: 6-12
3PT: 2-4
FT: 10-13
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 67.7
USG%: 29.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: +32
PRA: 31

2026-10-29

MEM

HOME

32.1MIN

24POINTS

9 · 7 · 8-16

ABOVE

FG: 8-16
3PT: 0-4
FT: 8-12
OREB/DREB: 1/8
TS%: 56.4
USG%: 26.9
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -9
PRA: 40

2026-10-27

LAL

AWAY

33.4MIN

23POINTS

4 · 9 · 8-15

ABOVE

FG: 8-15
3PT: 4-7
FT: 3-7
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 63.6
USG%: 27.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 4
+/−: +8
PRA: 36

2026-10-23

SAC

AWAY

37.7MIN

26POINTS

7 · 6 · 8-16

ABOVE

FG: 8-16
3PT: 1-5
FT: 9-12
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 61.1
USG%: 26.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: +12
PRA: 39

2026-10-21

PHX

HOME

23.5MIN

18POINTS

10 · 4 · 7-16

BELOW

FG: 7-16
3PT: 2-4
FT: 2-4
OREB/DREB: 3/7
TS%: 50.7
USG%: 34.0
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +25
PRA: 32

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: vs OKC, Thu 03:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 21:02 UTC · lines as of 20:50 UTC

Projected 34.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 23.5 · Over -115 / Under -120 · 9 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

He averages 22.5 points over 10 games, below the 23.5 line.
His last 3 games average 20.3 points, below the 23.5 line. a hint, not a finding
OKC have allowed 105.9 points a game over 11 games, the 4th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 44.7 a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 5th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (forwards; usage 23.9% to 33.9%, 24.3 to 40.3 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): AJ Dybantsa (WAS) 19 vs 16.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Ty Jerome (MEM) 21 vs 27.4 in his other games (Nov 6); Cameron Boozer (MEM) 8 vs 17.3 in his other games (Nov 6) and 2 more; mean -4.2 points against their own averages over 5 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 6.5 · Over -137 / Under -100 · 15 books

Case for the over

Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 32.3 a game so far; 0.198 rebounds per minute projects 6.7, +4% against the 6.5 line.
OKC miss 49.4 shots a game, the 8th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 54% (15 books at 6.5).

Case for the under

To forwards, OKC have allowed 19.5 rebounds a game over 11 games, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (forwards; usage 23.9% to 33.9%, 24.3 to 40.3 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): AJ Dybantsa (WAS) 6 vs 6.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Ty Jerome (MEM) 2 vs 3.9 in his other games (Nov 6); Cameron Boozer (MEM) 12 vs 9.3 in his other games (Nov 6) and 2 more; mean -1.0 rebounds against their own averages over 5 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Assists 6.5 · Over -125 / Under -106 · 14 books

Case for the over

Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 32.3 a game so far; 0.201 assists per minute projects 6.8, +5% against the 6.5 line.

Case for the under

OKC have allowed 24.5 assists a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 8.5 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 41% shooting from the field, the lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 1.5 · Over -151 / Under +113 · 14 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2, 0, 4, 1, 2); season average 1.7, last 3 average 1.7.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 32.3 a game so far; 0.053 threes per minute projects 1.8, +19% against the 1.5 line.
OKC have allowed 14.4 threes made a game over 11 games, the 8th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 43.4 three-point attempts a game, the most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 56% (14 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

Shot volume is down: 3.7 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.9 on the season. a hint, not a finding
To forwards, OKC have allowed 5.5 threes made a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (forwards; usage 23.9% to 33.9%, 24.3 to 40.3 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): AJ Dybantsa (WAS) 1 vs 0.8 in his other games (Nov 7); Cameron Boozer (MEM) 0 vs 2.0 in his other games (Nov 6); Kevin Durant (HOU) 0 vs 1.4 in his other games (Oct 31) and 1 more; mean -0.7 threes made against their own averages over 4 games from 4 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 37.5 · Over -120 / Under -115 · 9 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

He averages 35.4 points + rebounds + assists over 10 games, below the 37.5 line.
His last 3 games average 33.3 points + rebounds + assists, below the 37.5 line. a hint, not a finding
OKC have allowed 175.2 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 72.8 a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 5th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (forwards; usage 23.9% to 33.9%, 24.3 to 40.3 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): AJ Dybantsa (WAS) 28 vs 24.7 in his other games (Nov 7); Ty Jerome (MEM) 28 vs 36.0 in his other games (Nov 6); Cameron Boozer (MEM) 24 vs 32.3 in his other games (Nov 6) and 2 more; mean -4.9 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 5 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 30.5 · Over -117 / Under -117 · 8 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 30.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 30, 19, 31, 28, 31, 29, 33, 27, 33, 28); season average 28.9, last 3 average 26.7.
OKC have allowed 150.6 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 64.3 a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 5th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (forwards; usage 23.9% to 33.9%, 24.3 to 40.3 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): AJ Dybantsa (WAS) 25 vs 22.7 in his other games (Nov 7); Ty Jerome (MEM) 23 vs 31.2 in his other games (Nov 6); Cameron Boozer (MEM) 20 vs 26.7 in his other games (Nov 6) and 2 more; mean -5.2 points + rebounds against their own averages over 5 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 30.5 · Over -120 / Under -115 · 7 books

Case for the over

Over 30.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 32, 16, 33, 33, 33, 26, 31, 32, 32, 22).

Case for the under

He averages 29.0 points + assists over 10 games, below the 30.5 line.
His last 3 games average 27.0 points + assists, below the 30.5 line. a hint, not a finding
OKC have allowed 130.5 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 5th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 53.3 a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 5th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (forwards; usage 23.9% to 33.9%, 24.3 to 40.3 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): AJ Dybantsa (WAS) 22 vs 18.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Ty Jerome (MEM) 26 vs 32.1 in his other games (Nov 6); Cameron Boozer (MEM) 12 vs 23.0 in his other games (Nov 6) and 2 more; mean -3.8 points + assists against their own averages over 5 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 13.5 · Over -120 / Under -110 · 9 books

Case for the over

OKC miss 49.4 shots a game, the 8th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

He averages 12.9 rebounds + assists over 10 games, below the 13.5 line.
His last 3 games average 13.0 rebounds + assists, below the 13.5 line. a hint, not a finding
To forwards, OKC have allowed 28.1 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (forwards; usage 23.9% to 33.9%, 24.3 to 40.3 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): AJ Dybantsa (WAS) 9 vs 8.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Ty Jerome (MEM) 7 vs 8.6 in his other games (Nov 6); Cameron Boozer (MEM) 16 vs 15.0 in his other games (Nov 6) and 2 more; mean -0.7 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 5 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 0.5 · Over -117 / Under -117 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 1, 1, 2, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 2); season average 0.9, last 3 average 1.3.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 32.3 a game so far; 0.028 steals per minute projects 0.9, +90% against the 0.5 line.

Case for the under

OKC have allowed 6.1 steals a game over 11 games, the fewest of 30; to forwards, 2.2 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC commit 12.1 turnovers a game, the fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (forwards; usage 23.9% to 33.9%, 24.3 to 40.3 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): AJ Dybantsa (WAS) 0 vs 1.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Ty Jerome (MEM) 0 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 6); Cameron Boozer (MEM) 0 vs 0.4 in his other games (Nov 6) and 1 more; mean -0.6 steals against their own averages over 4 games from 4 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Blocks 0.5 · Over +140 / Under -195 · 1 book

Case for the over

OKC take 90.6 shots a game, the 6th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 0.5 in 9 of 10 games this season (newest first: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0); season average 0.1, last 3 average 0.0.
Projected for 34.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 32.3 a game so far; 0.003 blocks per minute projects 0.1, -79% against the 0.5 line.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (forwards; usage 23.9% to 33.9%, 24.3 to 40.3 min a game, at least 26.0 min in the game): AJ Dybantsa (WAS) 0 vs 0.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Ty Jerome (MEM) 0 vs 0.2 in his other games (Nov 6); Cameron Boozer (MEM) 0 vs 0.7 in his other games (Nov 6) and 1 more; mean -0.5 blocks against their own averages over 4 games from 4 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the under at 61% (1 book at 0.5).