BOS · G · 2026 season

Derrick White

Next game: at PHI, Wed 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 24 hours before tip, 01:02 UTC · lines as of 00:01 UTC

Projected 29.8 min (season average) · 10 games this season

Points 12.5 · Over -125 / Under -110 · 5 books

Case for the over

He averages 12.9 points over 10 games, above the 12.5 line.
His last 3 games average 17.0 points, above the 12.5 line. a hint, not a finding
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 29.8 minutes stands in; 0.433 points per minute projects 12.9, +3% against the 12.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 12.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 10.7 on the season. a hint, not a finding
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.1% to 25.1%, 21.8 to 37.8 min a game, at least 21.8 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 19 and 13 vs 8.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 13 and 8 vs 11.5 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 12 vs 12.3 in his other games (Nov 6) and 12 more; mean +2.0 points against their own averages over 19 games from 15 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 12.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 9, 18, 24, 7, 12, 9, 16, 5, 12, 17).
PHI have allowed 107.9 points a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 3.5 · Over +102 / Under -138 · 5 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 3.7 rebounds, above the 3.5 line. a hint, not a finding
PHI have allowed 47.8 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 5th-most of 30; to guards, 22.5 a game, the 2nd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI miss 49.3 shots a game, the 10th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.1% to 25.1%, 21.8 to 37.8 min a game, at least 21.8 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 7 and 4 vs 4.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 9 and 1 vs 4.8 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 1 vs 2.8 in his other games (Nov 6) and 9 more; mean +0.4 rebounds against their own averages over 15 games from 12 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

He averages 3.3 rebounds over 10 games, below the 3.5 line.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 29.8 minutes stands in; 0.111 rebounds per minute projects 3.3, -6% against the 3.5 line.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 54% (5 books at 3.5).

Assists 4.5 · Over -118 / Under -115 · 5 books

Case for the over

Over 4.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 7, 5, 7, 3, 2, 4, 6, 4, 6, 8); season average 5.2, last 3 average 6.3.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 29.8 minutes stands in; 0.175 assists per minute projects 5.2, +16% against the 4.5 line.
He has assisted on 30.6% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3, up from 23.3% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.1% to 25.1%, 21.8 to 37.8 min a game, at least 21.8 min in the game): Peyton Watson (CLE) 2 and 2 vs 3.2 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); James Harden (CLE) 3 and 5 vs 6.2 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Ausar Thompson (DET) 3 vs 4.7 in his other games (Nov 4) and 6 more; mean +0.4 assists against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

PHI have allowed 24.5 assists a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 44.5% shooting from the field, the 9th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 1.5 · Over -155 / Under +115 · 5 books

Case for the over

He averages 1.7 threes made over 10 games, above the 1.5 line.
His last 3 games average 2.0 threes made, above the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 29.8 minutes stands in; 0.057 threes per minute projects 1.7, +13% against the 1.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 6.0 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 5.2 on the season. a hint, not a finding
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 56% (5 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 1, 4, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3).
PHI have allowed 11.3 threes made a game over 11 games, the 3rd-fewest of 30; to guards, 6.5 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 35.5 three-point attempts a game, the 9th-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 21.5 · Over -106 / Under -125 · 5 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 27.0 points + rebounds + assists, above the 21.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Shot volume is up: 12.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 10.7 on the season. a hint, not a finding
To guards, PHI have allowed 101.2 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 9th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.1% to 25.1%, 21.8 to 37.8 min a game, at least 21.8 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 41 and 27 vs 20.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 24 and 11 vs 19.5 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 16 vs 15.8 in his other games (Nov 6) and 12 more; mean +3.5 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 19 games from 15 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 16.5 · Over -114 / Under -115 · 3 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 20.7 points + rebounds, above the 16.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Shot volume is up: 12.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 10.7 on the season. a hint, not a finding
To guards, PHI have allowed 84.0 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 9th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.1% to 25.1%, 21.8 to 37.8 min a game, at least 21.8 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 26 and 17 vs 13.4 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 22 and 9 vs 16.3 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 13 vs 15.2 in his other games (Nov 6) and 12 more; mean +2.8 points + rebounds against their own averages over 19 games from 15 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 16.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 12, 22, 28, 9, 14, 11, 21, 11, 16, 18).
PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 17.5 · Over -120 / Under -110 · 3 books

Case for the over

He averages 18.1 points + assists over 10 games, above the 17.5 line.
His last 3 games average 23.3 points + assists, above the 17.5 line. a hint, not a finding
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 29.8 minutes stands in; 0.608 PA per minute projects 18.1, +3% against the 17.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 12.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 10.7 on the season. a hint, not a finding
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.1% to 25.1%, 21.8 to 37.8 min a game, at least 21.8 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 34 and 23 vs 16.0 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 15 and 10 vs 14.7 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 15 vs 13.0 in his other games (Nov 6) and 12 more; mean +2.7 points + assists against their own averages over 19 games from 15 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

PHI have allowed 132.4 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 7.5 · Over -146 / Under +110 · 3 books

Case for the over

Over 7.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 10, 9, 11, 5, 4, 6, 11, 10, 10, 9); season average 8.5, last 3 average 10.0.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 29.8 minutes stands in; 0.285 RA per minute projects 8.5, +13% against the 7.5 line.
PHI have allowed 72.3 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 9th-most of 30; to guards, 39.7 a game, the 3rd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI miss 49.3 shots a game, the 10th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.1% to 25.1%, 21.8 to 37.8 min a game, at least 21.8 min in the game): Peyton Watson (CLE) 11 and 3 vs 8.0 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); James Harden (CLE) 9 and 8 vs 11.2 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Grayson Allen (CHA) 7 vs 5.2 in his other games (Oct 31) and 8 more; mean +0.5 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 14 games from 11 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 55% (3 books at 7.5).

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Steals 0.5 · Over -225 / Under +160 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 9 of 10 games this season (newest first: 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 0, 3, 1, 1); season average 1.4, last 3 average 1.3.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 29.8 minutes stands in; 0.047 steals per minute projects 1.4, +180% against the 0.5 line.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.1% to 25.1%, 21.8 to 37.8 min a game, at least 21.8 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 1 and 1 vs 0.4 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 0 and 2 vs 1.0 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 2 vs 0.8 in his other games (Nov 6) and 11 more; mean +0.1 steals against their own averages over 18 games from 14 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the over at 64% (1 book at 0.5).

Case for the under

PHI have allowed 6.6 steals a game over 11 games, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI commit 12.3 turnovers a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

10 games played · averaging 12.9 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 12.5 · POINTS · 2019–2026

HIT RATE56.6%318 of 562 games

INTERVAL52.5%–60.6%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN-131at that rate

AT THE FLOOR-110if the rate is 52.5%

Derrick has cleared 12.5 points in 56.6% of 562 games since 2019, and in 40.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs -131 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-08

MIL

AWAY

27.4MIN

9POINTS

3 · 7 · 4-10

BELOW

FG: 4-10
3PT: 1-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 45.0
USG%: 17.3
STL: 2
BLK: 2
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +7
PRA: 19

2026-11-06

CHA

AWAY

25.4MIN

18POINTS

4 · 5 · 6-10

ABOVE

FG: 6-10
3PT: 4-6
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 79.5
USG%: 22.6
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +23
PRA: 27

2026-11-04

MIL

HOME

35.5MIN

24POINTS

4 · 7 · 7-18

ABOVE

FG: 7-18
3PT: 1-7
FT: 9-9
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 54.6
USG%: 28.4
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: +8
PRA: 35

2026-11-02

HOU

AWAY

29.8MIN

7POINTS

2 · 3 · 3-12

BELOW

FG: 3-12
3PT: 1-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 29.2
USG%: 22.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 0
+/−: -4
PRA: 12

2026-11-01

ORL

AWAY

33.7MIN

12POINTS

2 · 2 · 4-8

BELOW

FG: 4-8
3PT: 2-5
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 67.6
USG%: 13.1
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +18
PRA: 16

2026-10-30

CHI

HOME

25.5MIN

9POINTS

2 · 4 · 4-6

BELOW

FG: 4-6
3PT: 1-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 75.0
USG%: 11.6
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +16
PRA: 15

2026-10-27

BKN

HOME

33.1MIN

16POINTS

5 · 6 · 5-15

ABOVE

FG: 5-15
3PT: 1-7
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 3/2
TS%: 46.5
USG%: 26.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: -4
PRA: 27

2026-10-26

CHI

HOME

18.0MIN

5POINTS

6 · 4 · 2-4

BELOW

FG: 2-4
3PT: 1-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 62.5
USG%: 20.5
STL: 3
BLK: 1
TOV: 6
PF: 1
+/−: 0
PRA: 15

2026-10-23

HOME

33.5MIN

12POINTS

4 · 6 · 5-11

BELOW

FG: 5-11
3PT: 2-6
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 54.5
USG%: 16.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -4
PRA: 22

2026-10-20

DET

AWAY

35.9MIN

17POINTS

1 · 8 · 7-13

ABOVE

FG: 7-13
3PT: 3-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/0
TS%: 65.4
USG%: 20.4
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 2
+/−: -4
PRA: 26

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: at PHI, Wed 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 24 hours before tip, 01:02 UTC · lines as of 00:01 UTC

Projected 29.8 min (season average) · 10 games this season

Points 12.5 · Over -125 / Under -110 · 5 books

Case for the over

He averages 12.9 points over 10 games, above the 12.5 line.
His last 3 games average 17.0 points, above the 12.5 line. a hint, not a finding
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 29.8 minutes stands in; 0.433 points per minute projects 12.9, +3% against the 12.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 12.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 10.7 on the season. a hint, not a finding
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.1% to 25.1%, 21.8 to 37.8 min a game, at least 21.8 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 19 and 13 vs 8.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 13 and 8 vs 11.5 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 12 vs 12.3 in his other games (Nov 6) and 12 more; mean +2.0 points against their own averages over 19 games from 15 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 12.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 9, 18, 24, 7, 12, 9, 16, 5, 12, 17).
PHI have allowed 107.9 points a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 3.5 · Over +102 / Under -138 · 5 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 3.7 rebounds, above the 3.5 line. a hint, not a finding
PHI have allowed 47.8 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 5th-most of 30; to guards, 22.5 a game, the 2nd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI miss 49.3 shots a game, the 10th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.1% to 25.1%, 21.8 to 37.8 min a game, at least 21.8 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 7 and 4 vs 4.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 9 and 1 vs 4.8 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 1 vs 2.8 in his other games (Nov 6) and 9 more; mean +0.4 rebounds against their own averages over 15 games from 12 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

He averages 3.3 rebounds over 10 games, below the 3.5 line.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 29.8 minutes stands in; 0.111 rebounds per minute projects 3.3, -6% against the 3.5 line.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 54% (5 books at 3.5).

Assists 4.5 · Over -118 / Under -115 · 5 books

Case for the over

Over 4.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 7, 5, 7, 3, 2, 4, 6, 4, 6, 8); season average 5.2, last 3 average 6.3.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 29.8 minutes stands in; 0.175 assists per minute projects 5.2, +16% against the 4.5 line.
He has assisted on 30.6% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3, up from 23.3% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.1% to 25.1%, 21.8 to 37.8 min a game, at least 21.8 min in the game): Peyton Watson (CLE) 2 and 2 vs 3.2 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); James Harden (CLE) 3 and 5 vs 6.2 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Ausar Thompson (DET) 3 vs 4.7 in his other games (Nov 4) and 6 more; mean +0.4 assists against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

PHI have allowed 24.5 assists a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 44.5% shooting from the field, the 9th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 1.5 · Over -155 / Under +115 · 5 books

Case for the over

He averages 1.7 threes made over 10 games, above the 1.5 line.
His last 3 games average 2.0 threes made, above the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 29.8 minutes stands in; 0.057 threes per minute projects 1.7, +13% against the 1.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 6.0 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 5.2 on the season. a hint, not a finding
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 56% (5 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 1, 4, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3).
PHI have allowed 11.3 threes made a game over 11 games, the 3rd-fewest of 30; to guards, 6.5 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 35.5 three-point attempts a game, the 9th-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 21.5 · Over -106 / Under -125 · 5 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 27.0 points + rebounds + assists, above the 21.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Shot volume is up: 12.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 10.7 on the season. a hint, not a finding
To guards, PHI have allowed 101.2 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 9th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.1% to 25.1%, 21.8 to 37.8 min a game, at least 21.8 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 41 and 27 vs 20.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 24 and 11 vs 19.5 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 16 vs 15.8 in his other games (Nov 6) and 12 more; mean +3.5 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 19 games from 15 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 16.5 · Over -114 / Under -115 · 3 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 20.7 points + rebounds, above the 16.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Shot volume is up: 12.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 10.7 on the season. a hint, not a finding
To guards, PHI have allowed 84.0 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 9th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.1% to 25.1%, 21.8 to 37.8 min a game, at least 21.8 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 26 and 17 vs 13.4 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 22 and 9 vs 16.3 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 13 vs 15.2 in his other games (Nov 6) and 12 more; mean +2.8 points + rebounds against their own averages over 19 games from 15 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 16.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 12, 22, 28, 9, 14, 11, 21, 11, 16, 18).
PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 17.5 · Over -120 / Under -110 · 3 books

Case for the over

He averages 18.1 points + assists over 10 games, above the 17.5 line.
His last 3 games average 23.3 points + assists, above the 17.5 line. a hint, not a finding
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 29.8 minutes stands in; 0.608 PA per minute projects 18.1, +3% against the 17.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 12.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 10.7 on the season. a hint, not a finding
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.1% to 25.1%, 21.8 to 37.8 min a game, at least 21.8 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 34 and 23 vs 16.0 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 15 and 10 vs 14.7 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 15 vs 13.0 in his other games (Nov 6) and 12 more; mean +2.7 points + assists against their own averages over 19 games from 15 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

PHI have allowed 132.4 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 7.5 · Over -146 / Under +110 · 3 books

Case for the over

Over 7.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 10, 9, 11, 5, 4, 6, 11, 10, 10, 9); season average 8.5, last 3 average 10.0.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 29.8 minutes stands in; 0.285 RA per minute projects 8.5, +13% against the 7.5 line.
PHI have allowed 72.3 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 9th-most of 30; to guards, 39.7 a game, the 3rd-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI miss 49.3 shots a game, the 10th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.1% to 25.1%, 21.8 to 37.8 min a game, at least 21.8 min in the game): Peyton Watson (CLE) 11 and 3 vs 8.0 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); James Harden (CLE) 9 and 8 vs 11.2 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Grayson Allen (CHA) 7 vs 5.2 in his other games (Oct 31) and 8 more; mean +0.5 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 14 games from 11 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 55% (3 books at 7.5).

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Steals 0.5 · Over -225 / Under +160 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 9 of 10 games this season (newest first: 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 0, 3, 1, 1); season average 1.4, last 3 average 1.3.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 29.8 minutes stands in; 0.047 steals per minute projects 1.4, +180% against the 0.5 line.
Role comparables vs PHI (guards; usage 15.1% to 25.1%, 21.8 to 37.8 min a game, at least 21.8 min in the game): Josh Giddey (CHI) 1 and 1 vs 0.4 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Peyton Watson (CLE) 0 and 2 vs 1.0 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 22); Meleek Thomas (CLE) 2 vs 0.8 in his other games (Nov 6) and 11 more; mean +0.1 steals against their own averages over 18 games from 14 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the over at 64% (1 book at 0.5).

Case for the under

PHI have allowed 6.6 steals a game over 11 games, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI commit 12.3 turnovers a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.