SAS · G-F · 2026 season

Devin Vassell

Next game: at CHI, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 19:02 UTC · lines as of 18:36 UTC

Projected 30.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 9 games this season

Points 10.5 · Over -125 / Under -106 · 14 books

Case for the over

Over 10.5 in 6 of 9 games this season (newest first: 15, 19, 2, 11, 9, 21, 14, 11, 7); season average 12.1, last 3 average 12.0.
Projected for 30.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 29.6 a game so far; 0.409 points per minute projects 12.3, +17% against the 10.5 line.
CHI have allowed 129.3 points a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to guards, 81.9 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI allow 120.7 points per 100 possessions, the highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 11.3% to 21.3%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 22.0 min in the game): VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 13 and 21 vs 11.8 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Landry Shamet (NYK) 7 and 14 vs 9.1 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28); Payton Pritchard (BOS) 30 vs 9.8 in his other games (Oct 30) and 6 more; mean +2.8 points against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Rebounds 3.5

9 games played · averaging 12.1 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 12.5 · POINTS · 2020–2026

HIT RATE55.5%222 of 400 games

INTERVAL50.6%–60.3%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN-125at that rate

AT THE FLOOR-102if the rate is 50.6%

Devin has cleared 12.5 points in 55.5% of 400 games since 2020, and in 40.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs -125 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-07

POR

AWAY

21.0MIN

15POINTS

2 · 3 · 4-8

ABOVE

FG: 4-8
3PT: 2-4
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 73.5
USG%: 19.6
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +26
PRA: 20

2026-11-06

SAC

AWAY

26.5MIN

19POINTS

2 · 2 · 6-10

ABOVE

FG: 6-10
3PT: 5-6
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 87.3
USG%: 18.2
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +5
PRA: 23

2026-11-04

DAL

HOME

35.5MIN

2POINTS

7 · 4 · 0-8

BELOW

FG: 0-8
3PT: 0-5
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 2/5
TS%: 11.3
USG%: 9.8
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +2
PRA: 13

2026-11-02

UTAH

HOME

25.3MIN

11POINTS

2 · 1 · 4-9

BELOW

FG: 4-9
3PT: 0-2
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 53.3
USG%: 18.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +26
PRA: 14

2026-10-31

MIN

HOME

33.7MIN

9POINTS

5 · 2 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 0-1
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 52.1
USG%: 13.1
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +1
PRA: 16

2026-10-28

UTAH

AWAY

37.8MIN

21POINTS

5 · 2 · 8-18

ABOVE

FG: 8-18
3PT: 1-7
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 3/2
TS%: 53.1
USG%: 24.0
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +4
PRA: 28

2026-10-27

SAC

HOME

24.3MIN

14POINTS

4 · 8 · 5-11

ABOVE

FG: 5-11
3PT: 4-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 63.6
USG%: 21.3
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +12
PRA: 26

2026-10-24

DAL

AWAY

31.7MIN

11POINTS

4 · 6 · 5-10

BELOW

FG: 5-10
3PT: 1-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 55.0
USG%: 12.6
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +13
PRA: 21

2026-10-20

OKC

HOME

30.9MIN

7POINTS

3 · 1 · 2-8

BELOW

FG: 2-8
3PT: 1-4
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 39.4
USG%: 11.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: +8
PRA: 11

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: at CHI, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 19:02 UTC · lines as of 18:36 UTC

Projected 30.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 9 games this season

Points 10.5 · Over -125 / Under -106 · 14 books

Case for the over

Over 10.5 in 6 of 9 games this season (newest first: 15, 19, 2, 11, 9, 21, 14, 11, 7); season average 12.1, last 3 average 12.0.
Projected for 30.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 29.6 a game so far; 0.409 points per minute projects 12.3, +17% against the 10.5 line.
CHI have allowed 129.3 points a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to guards, 81.9 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI allow 120.7 points per 100 possessions, the highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 11.3% to 21.3%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 22.0 min in the game): VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 13 and 21 vs 11.8 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Landry Shamet (NYK) 7 and 14 vs 9.1 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28); Payton Pritchard (BOS) 30 vs 9.8 in his other games (Oct 30) and 6 more; mean +2.8 points against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Rebounds 3.5

Case for the over

Over 3.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 2, 2, 7, 2, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3); season average 3.8, last 3 average 3.7.
Projected for 30.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 29.6 a game so far; 0.127 rebounds per minute projects 3.8, +9% against the 3.5 line.
CHI have allowed 49.7 rebounds a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to guards, 23.6 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI miss 52.2 shots a game, the 2nd-most of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 11.3% to 21.3%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 22.0 min in the game): Payton Pritchard (BOS) 3 vs 3.9 in his other games (Oct 30); Derrick White (BOS) 2 vs 2.9 in his other games (Oct 30); Bilal Coulibaly (WAS) 4 vs 3.7 in his other games (Oct 24) and 2 more; mean -0.4 rebounds against their own averages over 5 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Assists 2.5 · Over -104 / Under -129 · 12 books

Case for the over

He averages 3.2 assists over 9 games, above the 2.5 line.
His last 3 games average 3.0 assists, above the 2.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 30.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 29.6 a game so far; 0.109 assists per minute projects 3.3, +30% against the 2.5 line.
CHI have allowed 29.7 assists a game over 9 games, the 2nd-most of 30; to guards, 21.1 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI allow 48.5% shooting from the field, the 6th-highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 11.3% to 21.3%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 22.0 min in the game): VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 3 and 5 vs 2.9 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Landry Shamet (NYK) 2 and 5 vs 1.5 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28); Payton Pritchard (BOS) 3 vs 4.0 in his other games (Oct 30) and 2 more; mean +0.9 assists against their own averages over 7 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 2.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 3, 2, 4, 1, 2, 2, 8, 6, 1).

Pts+Reb+Ast 17.5 · Over -111 / Under -120 · 12 books

Case for the over

Over 17.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 20, 23, 13, 14, 16, 28, 26, 21, 11); season average 19.1, last 3 average 18.7.
Projected for 30.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 29.6 a game so far; 0.645 PRA per minute projects 19.3, +11% against the 17.5 line.
CHI have allowed 208.7 points + rebounds + assists a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to guards, 126.6 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI allow 120.7 points per 100 possessions, the highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 11.3% to 21.3%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 22.0 min in the game): VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 22 and 29 vs 21.3 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Landry Shamet (NYK) 11 and 20 vs 12.2 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28); Payton Pritchard (BOS) 36 vs 17.7 in his other games (Oct 30) and 6 more; mean +2.9 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Pts+Reb 14.5 · Over -121 / Under -110 · 8 books

Case for the over

Over 14.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 17, 21, 9, 13, 14, 26, 18, 15, 10); season average 15.9, last 3 average 15.7.
Projected for 30.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 29.6 a game so far; 0.536 PR per minute projects 16.1, +11% against the 14.5 line.
CHI have allowed 179.0 points + rebounds a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to guards, 105.4 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI allow 120.7 points per 100 possessions, the highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 11.3% to 21.3%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 22.0 min in the game): VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 19 and 24 vs 18.4 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Landry Shamet (NYK) 9 and 15 vs 10.8 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28); Payton Pritchard (BOS) 33 vs 13.7 in his other games (Oct 30) and 6 more; mean +2.3 points + rebounds against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Pts+Ast 13.5 · Over -115 / Under -115 · 8 books

Case for the over

Over 13.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 18, 21, 6, 12, 11, 23, 22, 17, 8); season average 15.3, last 3 average 15.0.
Projected for 30.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 29.6 a game so far; 0.517 PA per minute projects 15.5, +15% against the 13.5 line.
CHI have allowed 159.0 points + assists a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to guards, 103.0 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI allow 120.7 points per 100 possessions, the highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 11.3% to 21.3%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 22.0 min in the game): VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 16 and 26 vs 14.7 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Landry Shamet (NYK) 9 and 19 vs 10.6 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 28); Payton Pritchard (BOS) 33 vs 13.8 in his other games (Oct 30) and 5 more; mean +3.0 points + assists against their own averages over 10 games from 8 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Reb+Ast 6.5 · Over -102 / Under -132 · 8 books

Case for the over

Over 6.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 5, 4, 11, 3, 7, 7, 12, 10, 4); season average 7.0.
Projected for 30.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 29.6 a game so far; 0.236 RA per minute projects 7.1, +9% against the 6.5 line.
CHI have allowed 79.3 rebounds + assists a game over 9 games, the most of 30; to guards, 44.7 a game, the most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI miss 52.2 shots a game, the 2nd-most of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Steals 1.5 · Over +149 / Under -210 · 4 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 3, 1, 2, 0); last 3 average 1.7.
To guards, CHI have allowed 6.0 steals a game over 9 games, the 2nd-most of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs CHI (guards; usage 11.3% to 21.3%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 22.0 min in the game): VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 3 and 1 vs 1.4 in his other games (Nov 8, Nov 2); Payton Pritchard (BOS) 2 vs 0.6 in his other games (Oct 30); Derrick White (BOS) 2 vs 1.0 in his other games (Oct 30) and 4 more; mean +0.6 steals against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

After removing the vig, the books price the under at 63% (4 books at 1.5).

Blocks 0.5 · Over +180 / Under -250 · 1 book

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 0.7 blocks, above the 0.5 line. a hint, not a finding
CHI take 90.7 shots a game, the 5th-most of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
CHI average 107.1 possessions a game, the fastest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 0.5 in 6 of 9 games this season (newest first: 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0); season average 0.3.
Projected for 30.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 29.6 a game so far; 0.011 blocks per minute projects 0.3, -33% against the 0.5 line.
To guards, CHI have allowed 1.4 blocks a game over 9 games, the 10th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the under at 67% (1 book at 0.5).