POR · C · 2026 season

Donovan Clingan

Next game: vs OKC, Thu 03:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 21:02 UTC · lines as of 20:50 UTC

Projected 27.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 11.5 · Over -110 / Under -123 · 14 books

Case for the over

Projected for 27.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.8 a game so far; 0.460 points per minute projects 12.4, +8% against the 11.5 line.
Role comparables vs OKC (centers; usage 11.8% to 21.8%, 16.8 to 32.8 min a game, at least 19.0 min in the game): Alex Sarr (WAS) 15 vs 9.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Zach Edey (MEM) 14 vs 7.5 in his other games (Nov 6); Jarrett Allen (CLE) 14 vs 14.9 in his other games (Nov 2) and 3 more; mean +2.4 points against their own averages over 6 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 11.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 7, 6, 17, 24, 17, 4, 11, 9, 8, 11); last 3 average 10.0.
OKC have allowed 105.9 points a game over 11 games, the 4th-fewest of 30; to centers, 17.3 a game, the 6th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 5th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 10.5 · Over -120 / Under -111 · 14 books

Case for the over

Projected for 27.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.8 a game so far; 0.416 rebounds per minute projects 11.2, +7% against the 10.5 line.
OKC miss 49.4 shots a game, the 8th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (centers; usage 11.8% to 21.8%, 16.8 to 32.8 min a game, at least 19.0 min in the game): Alex Sarr (WAS) 14 vs 6.4 in his other games (Nov 7); Zach Edey (MEM) 6 vs 8.2 in his other games (Nov 6); Evan Mobley (CLE) 10 and 7 vs 7.2 in his other games (Nov 4, Nov 2) and 4 more; mean +0.9 rebounds against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 9.7 rebounds, below the 10.5 line. a hint, not a finding
To centers, OKC have allowed 11.8 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Assists 1.5 · Over -190 / Under +138 · 3 books

Case for the over

Projected for 27.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.8 a game so far; 0.061 assists per minute projects 1.6, +9% against the 1.5 line.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 61% (3 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 3, 0, 1, 1, 3, 0, 1, 1, 3, 2); last 3 average 1.3.
OKC have allowed 24.5 assists a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30; to centers, 3.5 a game, the 8th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 41% shooting from the field, the lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (centers; usage 11.8% to 21.8%, 16.8 to 32.8 min a game, at least 19.0 min in the game): Alex Sarr (WAS) 1 vs 1.9 in his other games (Nov 7); Zach Edey (MEM) 1 vs 1.0 in his other games (Nov 6); Jarrett Allen (CLE) 1 vs 1.4 in his other games (Nov 2) and 3 more; mean -0.1 assists against their own averages over 6 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 0.5 · Over -215 / Under +160 · 12 books

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 1, 0, 3, 1, 1, 0, 1, 2, 0, 2); season average 1.1, last 3 average 1.3.
Projected for 27.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.8 a game so far; 0.044 threes per minute projects 1.2, +140% against the 0.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 3.0 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 2.4 on the season. a hint, not a finding
OKC have allowed 14.4 threes made a game over 11 games, the 8th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 43.4 three-point attempts a game, the most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 64% (12 books at 0.5).

Case for the under

To centers, OKC have allowed 1.0 threes made a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (centers; usage 11.8% to 21.8%, 16.8 to 32.8 min a game, at least 19.0 min in the game): Alex Sarr (WAS) 1 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 7); Zach Edey (MEM) 0 vs 0.1 in his other games (Nov 6); Evan Mobley (CLE) 1 and 1 vs 2.3 in his other games (Nov 4, Nov 2) and 3 more; mean -0.2 threes made against their own averages over 7 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 24.5 · Over -119 / Under -110 · 9 books

Case for the over

Projected for 27.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.8 a game so far; 0.937 PRA per minute projects 25.3, +3% against the 24.5 line.
Role comparables vs OKC (centers; usage 11.8% to 21.8%, 16.8 to 32.8 min a game, at least 19.0 min in the game): Alex Sarr (WAS) 30 vs 17.7 in his other games (Nov 7); Zach Edey (MEM) 21 vs 16.8 in his other games (Nov 6); Evan Mobley (CLE) 29 and 27 vs 28.8 in his other games (Nov 4, Nov 2) and 4 more; mean +2.1 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 24.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 23, 11, 29, 36, 38, 13, 20, 20, 22, 20); season average 23.2, last 3 average 21.0.
OKC have allowed 175.2 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30; to centers, 32.5 a game, the 7th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 5th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 22.5 · Over -110 / Under -122 · 8 books

Case for the over

Projected for 27.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.8 a game so far; 0.876 PR per minute projects 23.7, +5% against the 22.5 line.
Role comparables vs OKC (centers; usage 11.8% to 21.8%, 16.8 to 32.8 min a game, at least 19.0 min in the game): Alex Sarr (WAS) 29 vs 15.8 in his other games (Nov 7); Zach Edey (MEM) 20 vs 15.8 in his other games (Nov 6); Evan Mobley (CLE) 26 and 23 vs 25.1 in his other games (Nov 4, Nov 2) and 4 more; mean +2.2 points + rebounds against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 22.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 20, 11, 28, 35, 35, 13, 19, 19, 19, 18); season average 21.7, last 3 average 19.7.
OKC have allowed 150.6 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30; to centers, 29.1 a game, the 6th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 5th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 13.5 · Over -120 / Under -110 · 7 books

Case for the over

Projected for 27.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.8 a game so far; 0.521 PA per minute projects 14.1, +4% against the 13.5 line.
Role comparables vs OKC (centers; usage 11.8% to 21.8%, 16.8 to 32.8 min a game, at least 19.0 min in the game): Alex Sarr (WAS) 16 vs 11.2 in his other games (Nov 7); Zach Edey (MEM) 15 vs 8.5 in his other games (Nov 6); Jarrett Allen (CLE) 15 vs 16.3 in his other games (Nov 2) and 3 more; mean +2.3 points + assists against their own averages over 6 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 13.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 10, 6, 18, 25, 20, 4, 12, 10, 11, 13); season average 12.9, last 3 average 11.3.
OKC have allowed 130.5 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 5th-fewest of 30; to centers, 20.7 a game, the 6th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 5th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 12.5 · Over -125 / Under -105 · 7 books

Case for the over

OKC miss 49.4 shots a game, the 8th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (centers; usage 11.8% to 21.8%, 16.8 to 32.8 min a game, at least 19.0 min in the game): Alex Sarr (WAS) 15 vs 8.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Zach Edey (MEM) 7 vs 9.2 in his other games (Nov 6); Evan Mobley (CLE) 13 and 11 vs 10.9 in his other games (Nov 4, Nov 2) and 4 more; mean +0.8 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 12.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 16, 5, 12, 12, 21, 9, 9, 11, 14, 9); season average 11.8, last 3 average 11.0.
To centers, OKC have allowed 15.3 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 5th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 0.5 · Over +128 / Under -177 · 1 book

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 0.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0); season average 0.3, last 3 average 0.3.
Projected for 27.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.8 a game so far; 0.012 steals per minute projects 0.3, -35% against the 0.5 line.
OKC have allowed 6.1 steals a game over 11 games, the fewest of 30; to centers, 0.5 a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC commit 12.1 turnovers a game, the fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (centers; usage 11.8% to 21.8%, 16.8 to 32.8 min a game, at least 19.0 min in the game): Alex Sarr (WAS) 0 vs 1.2 in his other games (Nov 7); Zach Edey (MEM) 0 vs 0.1 in his other games (Nov 6); Evan Mobley (CLE) 0 and 1 vs 0.7 in his other games (Nov 4, Nov 2) and 4 more; mean -0.3 steals against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the under at 59% (1 book at 0.5).

Blocks 1.5 · Over -140 / Under -104 · 5 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 2, 0, 2, 3, 4, 1, 5, 1, 3, 0); season average 2.1.
Projected for 27.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.8 a game so far; 0.085 blocks per minute projects 2.3, +53% against the 1.5 line.
To centers, OKC have allowed 2.2 blocks a game over 11 games, the 9th-most of 30, tied with 2 other teams.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC take 90.6 shots a game, the 6th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (centers; usage 11.8% to 21.8%, 16.8 to 32.8 min a game, at least 19.0 min in the game): Zach Edey (MEM) 0 vs 1.5 in his other games (Nov 6); Evan Mobley (CLE) 3 and 2 vs 0.8 in his other games (Nov 4, Nov 2); Jarrett Allen (CLE) 1 vs 1.6 in his other games (Nov 2) and 1 more; mean +0.3 blocks against their own averages over 5 games from 4 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 53% (5 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 1.3 blocks, below the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

10 games played · averaging 11.4 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 11.5 · POINTS · 2024–2026

HIT RATE31.4%50 of 159 games

INTERVAL24.7%–39.0%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+218at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+304if the rate is 24.7%

Donovan has cleared 11.5 points in 31.4% of 159 games since 2024, and in 30.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +218 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-10

OKC

HOME

25.5MIN

7POINTS

13 · 3 · 3-6

BELOW

FG: 3-6
3PT: 1-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 4/9
TS%: 58.3
USG%: 11.9
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +16
PRA: 23

2026-11-07

HOME

21.9MIN

6POINTS

5 · 0 · 3-6

BELOW

FG: 3-6
3PT: 0-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 11.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: -18
PRA: 11

2026-11-06

LAL

AWAY

27.8MIN

17POINTS

11 · 1 · 6-8

ABOVE

FG: 6-8
3PT: 3-5
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 2/9
TS%: 91.2
USG%: 19.3
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 3
PF: 5
+/−: -7
PRA: 29

2026-11-04

PHX

AWAY

28.8MIN

24POINTS

11 · 1 · 9-12

ABOVE

FG: 9-12
3PT: 1-2
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 4/7
TS%: 82.0
USG%: 25.6
STL: 1
BLK: 3
TOV: 4
PF: 1
+/−: +13
PRA: 36

2026-11-02

DEN

AWAY

32.3MIN

17POINTS

18 · 3 · 8-16

ABOVE

FG: 8-16
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 9/9
TS%: 53.1
USG%: 22.8
STL: 0
BLK: 4
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: +10
PRA: 38

2026-10-31

UTAH

AWAY

14.7MIN

4POINTS

9 · 0 · 1-3

BELOW

FG: 1-3
3PT: 0-1
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 4/5
TS%: 51.5
USG%: 11.4
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 5
+/−: +20
PRA: 13

2026-10-29

MEM

HOME

29.2MIN

11POINTS

8 · 1 · 5-9

BELOW

FG: 5-9
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-1
OREB/DREB: 4/4
TS%: 58.3
USG%: 15.9
STL: 1
BLK: 5
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +4
PRA: 20

2026-10-27

LAL

AWAY

26.2MIN

9POINTS

10 · 1 · 3-4

BELOW

FG: 3-4
3PT: 2-2
FT: 1-4
OREB/DREB: 1/9
TS%: 78.1
USG%: 11.3
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -4
PRA: 20

2026-10-23

SAC

AWAY

20.5MIN

8POINTS

11 · 3 · 3-5

BELOW

FG: 3-5
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 5/6
TS%: 68.0
USG%: 11.6
STL: 0
BLK: 3
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: +8
PRA: 22

2026-10-21

PHX

HOME

20.7MIN

11POINTS

7 · 2 · 4-9

BELOW

FG: 4-9
3PT: 2-4
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 2/5
TS%: 55.7
USG%: 21.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +25
PRA: 20

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: vs OKC, Thu 03:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 21:02 UTC · lines as of 20:50 UTC

Projected 27.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 11.5 · Over -110 / Under -123 · 14 books

Case for the over

Projected for 27.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.8 a game so far; 0.460 points per minute projects 12.4, +8% against the 11.5 line.
Role comparables vs OKC (centers; usage 11.8% to 21.8%, 16.8 to 32.8 min a game, at least 19.0 min in the game): Alex Sarr (WAS) 15 vs 9.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Zach Edey (MEM) 14 vs 7.5 in his other games (Nov 6); Jarrett Allen (CLE) 14 vs 14.9 in his other games (Nov 2) and 3 more; mean +2.4 points against their own averages over 6 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 11.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 7, 6, 17, 24, 17, 4, 11, 9, 8, 11); last 3 average 10.0.
OKC have allowed 105.9 points a game over 11 games, the 4th-fewest of 30; to centers, 17.3 a game, the 6th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 5th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 10.5 · Over -120 / Under -111 · 14 books

Case for the over

Projected for 27.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.8 a game so far; 0.416 rebounds per minute projects 11.2, +7% against the 10.5 line.
OKC miss 49.4 shots a game, the 8th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (centers; usage 11.8% to 21.8%, 16.8 to 32.8 min a game, at least 19.0 min in the game): Alex Sarr (WAS) 14 vs 6.4 in his other games (Nov 7); Zach Edey (MEM) 6 vs 8.2 in his other games (Nov 6); Evan Mobley (CLE) 10 and 7 vs 7.2 in his other games (Nov 4, Nov 2) and 4 more; mean +0.9 rebounds against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 9.7 rebounds, below the 10.5 line. a hint, not a finding
To centers, OKC have allowed 11.8 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Assists 1.5 · Over -190 / Under +138 · 3 books

Case for the over

Projected for 27.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.8 a game so far; 0.061 assists per minute projects 1.6, +9% against the 1.5 line.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 61% (3 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 3, 0, 1, 1, 3, 0, 1, 1, 3, 2); last 3 average 1.3.
OKC have allowed 24.5 assists a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30; to centers, 3.5 a game, the 8th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 41% shooting from the field, the lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (centers; usage 11.8% to 21.8%, 16.8 to 32.8 min a game, at least 19.0 min in the game): Alex Sarr (WAS) 1 vs 1.9 in his other games (Nov 7); Zach Edey (MEM) 1 vs 1.0 in his other games (Nov 6); Jarrett Allen (CLE) 1 vs 1.4 in his other games (Nov 2) and 3 more; mean -0.1 assists against their own averages over 6 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 0.5 · Over -215 / Under +160 · 12 books

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 1, 0, 3, 1, 1, 0, 1, 2, 0, 2); season average 1.1, last 3 average 1.3.
Projected for 27.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.8 a game so far; 0.044 threes per minute projects 1.2, +140% against the 0.5 line.
Shot volume is up: 3.0 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 2.4 on the season. a hint, not a finding
OKC have allowed 14.4 threes made a game over 11 games, the 8th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 43.4 three-point attempts a game, the most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 64% (12 books at 0.5).

Case for the under

To centers, OKC have allowed 1.0 threes made a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (centers; usage 11.8% to 21.8%, 16.8 to 32.8 min a game, at least 19.0 min in the game): Alex Sarr (WAS) 1 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 7); Zach Edey (MEM) 0 vs 0.1 in his other games (Nov 6); Evan Mobley (CLE) 1 and 1 vs 2.3 in his other games (Nov 4, Nov 2) and 3 more; mean -0.2 threes made against their own averages over 7 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 24.5 · Over -119 / Under -110 · 9 books

Case for the over

Projected for 27.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.8 a game so far; 0.937 PRA per minute projects 25.3, +3% against the 24.5 line.
Role comparables vs OKC (centers; usage 11.8% to 21.8%, 16.8 to 32.8 min a game, at least 19.0 min in the game): Alex Sarr (WAS) 30 vs 17.7 in his other games (Nov 7); Zach Edey (MEM) 21 vs 16.8 in his other games (Nov 6); Evan Mobley (CLE) 29 and 27 vs 28.8 in his other games (Nov 4, Nov 2) and 4 more; mean +2.1 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 24.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 23, 11, 29, 36, 38, 13, 20, 20, 22, 20); season average 23.2, last 3 average 21.0.
OKC have allowed 175.2 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30; to centers, 32.5 a game, the 7th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 5th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 22.5 · Over -110 / Under -122 · 8 books

Case for the over

Projected for 27.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.8 a game so far; 0.876 PR per minute projects 23.7, +5% against the 22.5 line.
Role comparables vs OKC (centers; usage 11.8% to 21.8%, 16.8 to 32.8 min a game, at least 19.0 min in the game): Alex Sarr (WAS) 29 vs 15.8 in his other games (Nov 7); Zach Edey (MEM) 20 vs 15.8 in his other games (Nov 6); Evan Mobley (CLE) 26 and 23 vs 25.1 in his other games (Nov 4, Nov 2) and 4 more; mean +2.2 points + rebounds against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 22.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 20, 11, 28, 35, 35, 13, 19, 19, 19, 18); season average 21.7, last 3 average 19.7.
OKC have allowed 150.6 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30; to centers, 29.1 a game, the 6th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 5th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 13.5 · Over -120 / Under -110 · 7 books

Case for the over

Projected for 27.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.8 a game so far; 0.521 PA per minute projects 14.1, +4% against the 13.5 line.
Role comparables vs OKC (centers; usage 11.8% to 21.8%, 16.8 to 32.8 min a game, at least 19.0 min in the game): Alex Sarr (WAS) 16 vs 11.2 in his other games (Nov 7); Zach Edey (MEM) 15 vs 8.5 in his other games (Nov 6); Jarrett Allen (CLE) 15 vs 16.3 in his other games (Nov 2) and 3 more; mean +2.3 points + assists against their own averages over 6 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 13.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 10, 6, 18, 25, 20, 4, 12, 10, 11, 13); season average 12.9, last 3 average 11.3.
OKC have allowed 130.5 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 5th-fewest of 30; to centers, 20.7 a game, the 6th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 5th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 12.5 · Over -125 / Under -105 · 7 books

Case for the over

OKC miss 49.4 shots a game, the 8th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (centers; usage 11.8% to 21.8%, 16.8 to 32.8 min a game, at least 19.0 min in the game): Alex Sarr (WAS) 15 vs 8.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Zach Edey (MEM) 7 vs 9.2 in his other games (Nov 6); Evan Mobley (CLE) 13 and 11 vs 10.9 in his other games (Nov 4, Nov 2) and 4 more; mean +0.8 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 12.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 16, 5, 12, 12, 21, 9, 9, 11, 14, 9); season average 11.8, last 3 average 11.0.
To centers, OKC have allowed 15.3 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 5th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 0.5 · Over +128 / Under -177 · 1 book

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 0.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0); season average 0.3, last 3 average 0.3.
Projected for 27.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.8 a game so far; 0.012 steals per minute projects 0.3, -35% against the 0.5 line.
OKC have allowed 6.1 steals a game over 11 games, the fewest of 30; to centers, 0.5 a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC commit 12.1 turnovers a game, the fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (centers; usage 11.8% to 21.8%, 16.8 to 32.8 min a game, at least 19.0 min in the game): Alex Sarr (WAS) 0 vs 1.2 in his other games (Nov 7); Zach Edey (MEM) 0 vs 0.1 in his other games (Nov 6); Evan Mobley (CLE) 0 and 1 vs 0.7 in his other games (Nov 4, Nov 2) and 4 more; mean -0.3 steals against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the under at 59% (1 book at 0.5).

Blocks 1.5 · Over -140 / Under -104 · 5 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 2, 0, 2, 3, 4, 1, 5, 1, 3, 0); season average 2.1.
Projected for 27.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 24.8 a game so far; 0.085 blocks per minute projects 2.3, +53% against the 1.5 line.
To centers, OKC have allowed 2.2 blocks a game over 11 games, the 9th-most of 30, tied with 2 other teams.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
OKC take 90.6 shots a game, the 6th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs OKC (centers; usage 11.8% to 21.8%, 16.8 to 32.8 min a game, at least 19.0 min in the game): Zach Edey (MEM) 0 vs 1.5 in his other games (Nov 6); Evan Mobley (CLE) 3 and 2 vs 0.8 in his other games (Nov 4, Nov 2); Jarrett Allen (CLE) 1 vs 1.6 in his other games (Nov 2) and 1 more; mean +0.3 blocks against their own averages over 5 games from 4 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 53% (5 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 1.3 blocks, below the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
OKC average 100.8 possessions a game, the 10th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.