GSW · F-C · 2026 season

Draymond Green

Next game: at HOU, Thu 02:30 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 24 hours before tip, 02:32 UTC · lines as of 02:04 UTC

Projected 26.8 min (season average) · 9 games this season

Points 4.5 · Over -114 / Under -114 · 2 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 4.5 in 8 of 9 games this season (newest first: 2, 2, 2, 4, 2, 3, 3, 5, 2); season average 2.8, last 3 average 2.0.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.8 minutes stands in; 0.104 points per minute projects 2.8, -38% against the 4.5 line.
HOU have allowed 106.0 points a game over 10 games, the 5th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 39.8 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU allow 107.6 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 4.5 · Over -158 / Under +121 · 2 books

Case for the over

He averages 4.9 rebounds over 9 games, above the 4.5 line.
His last 3 games average 4.7 rebounds, above the 4.5 line. a hint, not a finding
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.8 minutes stands in; 0.182 rebounds per minute projects 4.9, +9% against the 4.5 line.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 58% (2 books at 4.5).

Case for the under

Under 4.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 3, 6, 5, 4, 4, 9, 4, 5, 4).
HOU have allowed 40.2 rebounds a game over 10 games, the fewest of 30; to forwards, 20.3 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU miss 45.9 shots a game, the 7th-fewest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Assists 6.5 · Over -108 / Under -122 · 2 books

Case for the over

Over 6.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 6, 13, 11, 2, 9, 6, 7, 6, 8); season average 7.6, last 3 average 10.0.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.8 minutes stands in; 0.282 assists per minute projects 7.6, +16% against the 6.5 line.
He has assisted on 42.9% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3, up from 36% on the season. a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

HOU have allowed 24.1 assists a game over 10 games, the 5th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team; to forwards, 9.7 a game, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 16.5 · Over -110 / Under -120 · 1 book

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 16.5 in 6 of 9 games this season (newest first: 11, 21, 18, 10, 15, 18, 14, 16, 14); season average 15.2.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.8 minutes stands in; 0.568 PRA per minute projects 15.2, -8% against the 16.5 line.
HOU have allowed 170.3 points + rebounds + assists a game over 10 games, the fewest of 30; to forwards, 69.8 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU allow 107.6 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs HOU (forwards; usage 5.2% to 15.2%, 18.8 to 34.8 min a game, at least 18.8 min in the game): Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 13 vs 15.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Sam Hauser (BOS) 5 vs 12.4 in his other games (Nov 2); Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) 17 vs 20.7 in his other games (Oct 31); mean -4.5 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 3 games from 3 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 9.5 · Over -122 / Under -108 · 2 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 9.5 in 7 of 9 games this season (newest first: 5, 8, 7, 8, 6, 12, 7, 10, 6); season average 7.7, last 3 average 6.7.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.8 minutes stands in; 0.286 PR per minute projects 7.7, -19% against the 9.5 line.
HOU have allowed 146.2 points + rebounds a game over 10 games, the 2nd-fewest of 30; to forwards, 60.1 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU allow 107.6 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 11.5 · Over -101 / Under -130 · 2 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 12.0 points + assists, above the 11.5 line. a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

Under 11.5 in 7 of 9 games this season (newest first: 8, 15, 13, 6, 11, 9, 10, 11, 10); season average 10.3.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.8 minutes stands in; 0.386 PA per minute projects 10.3, -10% against the 11.5 line.
HOU have allowed 130.1 points + assists a game over 10 games, the 5th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 49.5 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU allow 107.6 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs HOU (forwards; usage 5.2% to 15.2%, 18.8 to 34.8 min a game, at least 18.8 min in the game): Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 7 vs 10.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Sam Hauser (BOS) 3 vs 9.4 in his other games (Nov 2); Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) 10 vs 10.2 in his other games (Oct 31); mean -3.3 points + assists against their own averages over 3 games from 3 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 11.5 · Over -114 / Under -114 · 2 books

Case for the over

Over 11.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 9, 19, 16, 6, 13, 15, 11, 11, 12); season average 12.4, last 3 average 14.7.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.8 minutes stands in; 0.464 RA per minute projects 12.4, +8% against the 11.5 line.

Case for the under

HOU have allowed 64.3 rebounds + assists a game over 10 games, the fewest of 30; to forwards, 30.0 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU miss 45.9 shots a game, the 7th-fewest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs HOU (forwards; usage 5.2% to 15.2%, 18.8 to 34.8 min a game, at least 18.8 min in the game): Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 9 vs 8.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) 7 vs 14.1 in his other games (Oct 31); mean -3.2 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

9 games played · averaging 2.8 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 2.5 · POINTS · 2019–2026

HIT RATE88.5%406 of 459 games

INTERVAL85.2%–91.1%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN-767at that rate

AT THE FLOOR-588if the rate is 85.2%

Draymond has cleared 2.5 points in 88.5% of 459 games since 2019, and in 50.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs -767 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-09

HOME

20.8MIN

2POINTS

3 · 6 · 1-1

BELOW

FG: 1-1
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 100.0
USG%: 6.3
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: +32
PRA: 11

2026-11-07

ORL

HOME

33.5MIN

2POINTS

6 · 13 · 1-5

BELOW

FG: 1-5
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-2
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 17.0
USG%: 14.0
STL: 2
BLK: 2
TOV: 4
PF: 2
+/−: +11
PRA: 21

2026-11-05

MIA

HOME

27.4MIN

2POINTS

5 · 11 · 1-3

BELOW

FG: 1-3
3PT: 0-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 33.3
USG%: 9.6
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 1
+/−: +13
PRA: 18

2026-11-02

PHX

HOME

16.8MIN

4POINTS

4 · 2 · 1-2

ABOVE

FG: 1-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 69.4
USG%: 9.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -6
PRA: 10

2026-10-30

LAL

HOME

31.7MIN

2POINTS

4 · 9 · 1-3

BELOW

FG: 1-3
3PT: 0-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 33.3
USG%: 5.4
STL: 3
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +17
PRA: 15

2026-10-28

MIN

AWAY

31.8MIN

3POINTS

9 · 6 · 1-3

ABOVE

FG: 1-3
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 2/7
TS%: 38.7
USG%: 8.5
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 3
PF: 5
+/−: +3
PRA: 18

2026-10-26

DEN

AWAY

26.9MIN

3POINTS

4 · 7 · 1-2

ABOVE

FG: 1-2
3PT: 1-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 75.0
USG%: 11.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 5
PF: 2
+/−: +7
PRA: 14

2026-10-23

MEM

HOME

31.1MIN

5POINTS

5 · 6 · 2-4

ABOVE

FG: 2-4
3PT: 1-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 62.5
USG%: 12.1
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 5
PF: 5
+/−: -5
PRA: 16

2026-10-21

LAL

AWAY

21.2MIN

2POINTS

4 · 8 · 1-4

BELOW

FG: 1-4
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/4
TS%: 25.0
USG%: 15.3
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 3
+/−: -22
PRA: 14

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: at HOU, Thu 02:30 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 24 hours before tip, 02:32 UTC · lines as of 02:04 UTC

Projected 26.8 min (season average) · 9 games this season

Points 4.5 · Over -114 / Under -114 · 2 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 4.5 in 8 of 9 games this season (newest first: 2, 2, 2, 4, 2, 3, 3, 5, 2); season average 2.8, last 3 average 2.0.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.8 minutes stands in; 0.104 points per minute projects 2.8, -38% against the 4.5 line.
HOU have allowed 106.0 points a game over 10 games, the 5th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 39.8 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU allow 107.6 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 4.5 · Over -158 / Under +121 · 2 books

Case for the over

He averages 4.9 rebounds over 9 games, above the 4.5 line.
His last 3 games average 4.7 rebounds, above the 4.5 line. a hint, not a finding
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.8 minutes stands in; 0.182 rebounds per minute projects 4.9, +9% against the 4.5 line.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 58% (2 books at 4.5).

Case for the under

Under 4.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 3, 6, 5, 4, 4, 9, 4, 5, 4).
HOU have allowed 40.2 rebounds a game over 10 games, the fewest of 30; to forwards, 20.3 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU miss 45.9 shots a game, the 7th-fewest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Assists 6.5 · Over -108 / Under -122 · 2 books

Case for the over

Over 6.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 6, 13, 11, 2, 9, 6, 7, 6, 8); season average 7.6, last 3 average 10.0.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.8 minutes stands in; 0.282 assists per minute projects 7.6, +16% against the 6.5 line.
He has assisted on 42.9% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3, up from 36% on the season. a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

HOU have allowed 24.1 assists a game over 10 games, the 5th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team; to forwards, 9.7 a game, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 16.5 · Over -110 / Under -120 · 1 book

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 16.5 in 6 of 9 games this season (newest first: 11, 21, 18, 10, 15, 18, 14, 16, 14); season average 15.2.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.8 minutes stands in; 0.568 PRA per minute projects 15.2, -8% against the 16.5 line.
HOU have allowed 170.3 points + rebounds + assists a game over 10 games, the fewest of 30; to forwards, 69.8 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU allow 107.6 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs HOU (forwards; usage 5.2% to 15.2%, 18.8 to 34.8 min a game, at least 18.8 min in the game): Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 13 vs 15.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Sam Hauser (BOS) 5 vs 12.4 in his other games (Nov 2); Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) 17 vs 20.7 in his other games (Oct 31); mean -4.5 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 3 games from 3 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 9.5 · Over -122 / Under -108 · 2 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 9.5 in 7 of 9 games this season (newest first: 5, 8, 7, 8, 6, 12, 7, 10, 6); season average 7.7, last 3 average 6.7.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.8 minutes stands in; 0.286 PR per minute projects 7.7, -19% against the 9.5 line.
HOU have allowed 146.2 points + rebounds a game over 10 games, the 2nd-fewest of 30; to forwards, 60.1 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU allow 107.6 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 11.5 · Over -101 / Under -130 · 2 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 12.0 points + assists, above the 11.5 line. a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

Under 11.5 in 7 of 9 games this season (newest first: 8, 15, 13, 6, 11, 9, 10, 11, 10); season average 10.3.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.8 minutes stands in; 0.386 PA per minute projects 10.3, -10% against the 11.5 line.
HOU have allowed 130.1 points + assists a game over 10 games, the 5th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 49.5 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU allow 107.6 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs HOU (forwards; usage 5.2% to 15.2%, 18.8 to 34.8 min a game, at least 18.8 min in the game): Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 7 vs 10.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Sam Hauser (BOS) 3 vs 9.4 in his other games (Nov 2); Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) 10 vs 10.2 in his other games (Oct 31); mean -3.3 points + assists against their own averages over 3 games from 3 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 11.5 · Over -114 / Under -114 · 2 books

Case for the over

Over 11.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 9, 19, 16, 6, 13, 15, 11, 11, 12); season average 12.4, last 3 average 14.7.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 26.8 minutes stands in; 0.464 RA per minute projects 12.4, +8% against the 11.5 line.

Case for the under

HOU have allowed 64.3 rebounds + assists a game over 10 games, the fewest of 30; to forwards, 30.0 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU miss 45.9 shots a game, the 7th-fewest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs HOU (forwards; usage 5.2% to 15.2%, 18.8 to 34.8 min a game, at least 18.8 min in the game): Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 9 vs 8.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) 7 vs 14.1 in his other games (Oct 31); mean -3.2 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.