GSW · F · 2026 season

Gui Santos

Next game: at HOU, Thu 02:30 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 20:32 UTC · lines as of 20:18 UTC

Projected 25.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 8 games this season

Points 7.5 · Over -109 / Under -125 · 10 books

Case for the over

Projected for 25.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 19.1 a game so far; 0.320 points per minute projects 8.0, +7% against the 7.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 7.5 in 6 of 8 games this season (newest first: 3, 3, 4 (8.7 min), 2, 13, 7, 5, 12); season average 6.1, last 3 average 3.3.
The projection assumes 25.0 minutes, more than his 19.1 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.5 on the season. a hint, not a finding
HOU have allowed 106.0 points a game over 10 games, the 5th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 39.8 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU allow 107.6 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 3rd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 3.5 · Over -123 / Under -108 · 11 books

Case for the over

Over 3.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 7, 1, 3 (8.7 min), 5, 3, 4, 4, 5); season average 4.0, last 3 average 3.7.
Projected for 25.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 19.1 a game so far; 0.209 rebounds per minute projects 5.2, +49% against the 3.5 line.
He has grabbed 13.1% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3, up from 11.2% on the season (7 of 8 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

The projection assumes 25.0 minutes, more than his 19.1 a game so far.
HOU have allowed 40.2 rebounds a game over 10 games, the 2nd-fewest of 30; to forwards, 20.3 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU miss 45.9 shots a game, the 6th-fewest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 3rd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Assists 1.5 · Over -139 / Under -100 · 9 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 1.7 assists, above the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 25.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 19.1 a game so far; 0.078 assists per minute projects 2.0, +31% against the 1.5 line.
He has assisted on 12.5% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3, up from 8.9% on the season (7 of 8 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
Role comparables vs HOU (forwards; usage 9.1% to 19.1%, 11.1 to 27.1 min a game, at least 17.0 min in the game): Ryan Dunn (PHX) 3 vs 1.1 in his other games (Nov 7); Trey Lyles (MIN) 0 vs 1.0 in his other games (Nov 4); Sam Hauser (BOS) 1 vs 1.2 in his other games (Nov 2) and 4 more; mean +0.4 assists against their own averages over 9 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 53% (9 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 4, 0, 1 (8.7 min), 1, 1, 3, 2, 0).
The projection assumes 25.0 minutes, more than his 19.1 a game so far.
HOU have allowed 24.1 assists a game over 10 games, the 5th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team; to forwards, 9.7 a game, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 3rd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 13.5 · Over -105 / Under -127 · 9 books

Case for the over

Projected for 25.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 19.1 a game so far; 0.607 PRA per minute projects 15.2, +12% against the 13.5 line.

Case for the under

He averages 11.6 points + rebounds + assists over 8 games, below the 13.5 line.
His last 3 games average 8.7 points + rebounds + assists, below the 13.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 25.0 minutes, more than his 19.1 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.5 on the season. a hint, not a finding
HOU have allowed 170.3 points + rebounds + assists a game over 10 games, the 2nd-fewest of 30; to forwards, 69.8 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU allow 107.6 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 11.5 · Over -105 / Under -125 · 7 books

Case for the over

Projected for 25.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 19.1 a game so far; 0.529 PR per minute projects 13.2, +15% against the 11.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 11.5 in 6 of 8 games this season (newest first: 10, 4, 7 (8.7 min), 7, 16, 11, 9, 17); season average 10.1, last 3 average 7.0.
The projection assumes 25.0 minutes, more than his 19.1 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.5 on the season. a hint, not a finding
HOU have allowed 146.2 points + rebounds a game over 10 games, the 2nd-fewest of 30; to forwards, 60.1 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU allow 107.6 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs HOU (forwards; usage 9.1% to 19.1%, 11.1 to 27.1 min a game, at least 17.0 min in the game): Ryan Dunn (PHX) 13 vs 9.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 10 vs 12.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Trey Lyles (MIN) 7 vs 11.0 in his other games (Nov 4) and 6 more; mean -0.4 points + rebounds against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 9.5 · Over -109 / Under -122 · 6 books

Case for the over

Projected for 25.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 19.1 a game so far; 0.398 PA per minute projects 10.0, +5% against the 9.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 9.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 7, 3, 5 (8.7 min), 3, 14, 10, 7, 12); season average 7.6, last 3 average 5.0.
The projection assumes 25.0 minutes, more than his 19.1 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.5 on the season. a hint, not a finding
HOU have allowed 130.1 points + assists a game over 10 games, the 4th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 49.5 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU allow 107.6 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 3rd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 5.5 · Over -108 / Under -123 · 6 books

Case for the over

Projected for 25.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 19.1 a game so far; 0.287 RA per minute projects 7.2, +31% against the 5.5 line.
He has grabbed 13.1% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3, up from 11.2% on the season (7 of 8 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 5.3 rebounds + assists, below the 5.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 25.0 minutes, more than his 19.1 a game so far.
HOU have allowed 64.3 rebounds + assists a game over 10 games, the fewest of 30; to forwards, 30.0 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU miss 45.9 shots a game, the 6th-fewest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 3rd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 0.5 · Over -122 / Under -110 · 1 book

Case for the over

Projected for 25.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 19.1 a game so far; 0.026 steals per minute projects 0.7, +31% against the 0.5 line.
Role comparables vs HOU (forwards; usage 9.1% to 19.1%, 11.1 to 27.1 min a game, at least 17.0 min in the game): Ryan Dunn (PHX) 3 vs 0.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 0 vs 0.1 in his other games (Nov 7); Trey Lyles (MIN) 0 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 4) and 7 more; mean +1.0 steals against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 0.3 steals, below the 0.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 25.0 minutes, more than his 19.1 a game so far.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 3rd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

8 games played · averaging 6.1 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 6.5 · POINTS · 2023–2026

HIT RATE34.5%57 of 165 games

INTERVAL27.7%–42.1%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+189at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+261if the rate is 27.7%

Gui has cleared 6.5 points in 34.5% of 165 games since 2023, and in 50.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +189 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-09

HOME

20.9MIN

3POINTS

7 · 4 · 0-3

BELOW

FG: 0-3
3PT: 0-1
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 31.5
USG%: 9.9
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +21
PRA: 14

2026-11-07

ORL

HOME

11.6MIN

3POINTS

1 · 0 · 1-2

BELOW

FG: 1-2
3PT: 0-1
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 52.1
USG%: 19.9
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: -4
PRA: 4

2026-11-01

LAC

HOME

8.7MIN

4POINTS

3 · 1 · 2-4

BELOW

FG: 2-4
3PT: 0-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 25.7
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +8
PRA: 8

2026-10-30

LAL

HOME

16.4MIN

2POINTS

5 · 1 · 1-4

BELOW

FG: 1-4
3PT: 0-1
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 25.0
USG%: 15.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +9
PRA: 8

2026-10-26

DEN

AWAY

27.7MIN

13POINTS

3 · 1 · 5-6

ABOVE

FG: 5-6
3PT: 1-2
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 94.5
USG%: 10.7
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: +18
PRA: 17

2026-10-24

PHX

AWAY

23.3MIN

7POINTS

4 · 3 · 1-4

ABOVE

FG: 1-4
3PT: 1-2
FT: 4-8
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 46.5
USG%: 14.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: -13
PRA: 14

2026-10-23

MEM

HOME

19.9MIN

5POINTS

4 · 2 · 1-3

BELOW

FG: 1-3
3PT: 1-1
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 3/1
TS%: 64.4
USG%: 8.2
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +14
PRA: 11

2026-10-21

LAL

AWAY

24.7MIN

12POINTS

5 · 0 · 5-10

ABOVE

FG: 5-10
3PT: 1-3
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 55.1
USG%: 17.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -14
PRA: 17

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: at HOU, Thu 02:30 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 20:32 UTC · lines as of 20:18 UTC

Projected 25.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 8 games this season

Points 7.5 · Over -109 / Under -125 · 10 books

Case for the over

Projected for 25.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 19.1 a game so far; 0.320 points per minute projects 8.0, +7% against the 7.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 7.5 in 6 of 8 games this season (newest first: 3, 3, 4 (8.7 min), 2, 13, 7, 5, 12); season average 6.1, last 3 average 3.3.
The projection assumes 25.0 minutes, more than his 19.1 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.5 on the season. a hint, not a finding
HOU have allowed 106.0 points a game over 10 games, the 5th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 39.8 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU allow 107.6 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 3rd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 3.5 · Over -123 / Under -108 · 11 books

Case for the over

Over 3.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 7, 1, 3 (8.7 min), 5, 3, 4, 4, 5); season average 4.0, last 3 average 3.7.
Projected for 25.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 19.1 a game so far; 0.209 rebounds per minute projects 5.2, +49% against the 3.5 line.
He has grabbed 13.1% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3, up from 11.2% on the season (7 of 8 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

The projection assumes 25.0 minutes, more than his 19.1 a game so far.
HOU have allowed 40.2 rebounds a game over 10 games, the 2nd-fewest of 30; to forwards, 20.3 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU miss 45.9 shots a game, the 6th-fewest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 3rd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Assists 1.5 · Over -139 / Under -100 · 9 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 1.7 assists, above the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 25.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 19.1 a game so far; 0.078 assists per minute projects 2.0, +31% against the 1.5 line.
He has assisted on 12.5% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3, up from 8.9% on the season (7 of 8 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
Role comparables vs HOU (forwards; usage 9.1% to 19.1%, 11.1 to 27.1 min a game, at least 17.0 min in the game): Ryan Dunn (PHX) 3 vs 1.1 in his other games (Nov 7); Trey Lyles (MIN) 0 vs 1.0 in his other games (Nov 4); Sam Hauser (BOS) 1 vs 1.2 in his other games (Nov 2) and 4 more; mean +0.4 assists against their own averages over 9 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 53% (9 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 4, 0, 1 (8.7 min), 1, 1, 3, 2, 0).
The projection assumes 25.0 minutes, more than his 19.1 a game so far.
HOU have allowed 24.1 assists a game over 10 games, the 5th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team; to forwards, 9.7 a game, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 3rd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 13.5 · Over -105 / Under -127 · 9 books

Case for the over

Projected for 25.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 19.1 a game so far; 0.607 PRA per minute projects 15.2, +12% against the 13.5 line.

Case for the under

He averages 11.6 points + rebounds + assists over 8 games, below the 13.5 line.
His last 3 games average 8.7 points + rebounds + assists, below the 13.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 25.0 minutes, more than his 19.1 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.5 on the season. a hint, not a finding
HOU have allowed 170.3 points + rebounds + assists a game over 10 games, the 2nd-fewest of 30; to forwards, 69.8 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU allow 107.6 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 11.5 · Over -105 / Under -125 · 7 books

Case for the over

Projected for 25.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 19.1 a game so far; 0.529 PR per minute projects 13.2, +15% against the 11.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 11.5 in 6 of 8 games this season (newest first: 10, 4, 7 (8.7 min), 7, 16, 11, 9, 17); season average 10.1, last 3 average 7.0.
The projection assumes 25.0 minutes, more than his 19.1 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.5 on the season. a hint, not a finding
HOU have allowed 146.2 points + rebounds a game over 10 games, the 2nd-fewest of 30; to forwards, 60.1 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU allow 107.6 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs HOU (forwards; usage 9.1% to 19.1%, 11.1 to 27.1 min a game, at least 17.0 min in the game): Ryan Dunn (PHX) 13 vs 9.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 10 vs 12.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Trey Lyles (MIN) 7 vs 11.0 in his other games (Nov 4) and 6 more; mean -0.4 points + rebounds against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 9.5 · Over -109 / Under -122 · 6 books

Case for the over

Projected for 25.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 19.1 a game so far; 0.398 PA per minute projects 10.0, +5% against the 9.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 9.5 in 5 of 8 games this season (newest first: 7, 3, 5 (8.7 min), 3, 14, 10, 7, 12); season average 7.6, last 3 average 5.0.
The projection assumes 25.0 minutes, more than his 19.1 a game so far.
Shot volume is down: 3.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.5 on the season. a hint, not a finding
HOU have allowed 130.1 points + assists a game over 10 games, the 4th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 49.5 a game, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU allow 107.6 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 3rd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 5.5 · Over -108 / Under -123 · 6 books

Case for the over

Projected for 25.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 19.1 a game so far; 0.287 RA per minute projects 7.2, +31% against the 5.5 line.
He has grabbed 13.1% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3, up from 11.2% on the season (7 of 8 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 5.3 rebounds + assists, below the 5.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 25.0 minutes, more than his 19.1 a game so far.
HOU have allowed 64.3 rebounds + assists a game over 10 games, the fewest of 30; to forwards, 30.0 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU miss 45.9 shots a game, the 6th-fewest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 3rd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 0.5 · Over -122 / Under -110 · 1 book

Case for the over

Projected for 25.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 19.1 a game so far; 0.026 steals per minute projects 0.7, +31% against the 0.5 line.
Role comparables vs HOU (forwards; usage 9.1% to 19.1%, 11.1 to 27.1 min a game, at least 17.0 min in the game): Ryan Dunn (PHX) 3 vs 0.3 in his other games (Nov 7); Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 0 vs 0.1 in his other games (Nov 7); Trey Lyles (MIN) 0 vs 0.6 in his other games (Nov 4) and 7 more; mean +1.0 steals against their own averages over 12 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 0.3 steals, below the 0.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 25.0 minutes, more than his 19.1 a game so far.
HOU average 98.5 possessions a game, the 3rd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.