HOU · F · 2026 season

Jabari Smith Jr.

Next game: vs GSW, Thu 02:30 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 20:32 UTC · lines as of 20:18 UTC

Projected 32.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 14.5 · Over -113 / Under -120 · 14 books

Case for the over

He averages 18.0 points over 10 games, above the 14.5 line.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 35.4 a game so far; 0.508 points per minute projects 16.3, +12% against the 14.5 line.
To forwards, GSW have allowed 59.6 points a game over 11 games, the 8th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 12.6% to 22.6%, 27.4 to 43.4 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) 19 vs 13.6 in his other games (Nov 7); Tristan da Silva (ORL) 19 vs 14.6 in his other games (Nov 7); Bam Adebayo (MIA) 18 vs 17.8 in his other games (Nov 5) and 6 more; mean +2.4 points against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 13.3 points, below the 14.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Shot volume is down: 9.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 12.6 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Rebounds 6.5 · Over -115 / Under -119 ·

10 games played · averaging 18.0 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 18.5 · POINTS · 2022–2026

HIT RATE19.3%60 of 311 games

INTERVAL15.3%–24.0%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+418at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+554if the rate is 15.3%

Jabari has cleared 18.5 points in 19.3% of 311 games since 2022, and in 30.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +418 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-09

DEN

HOME

37.6MIN

14POINTS

7 · 3 · 6-13

BELOW

FG: 6-13
3PT: 2-8
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 3/4
TS%: 53.8
USG%: 15.3
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +10
PRA: 24

2026-11-07

PHX

AWAY

39.0MIN

15POINTS

9 · 2 · 7-12

BELOW

FG: 7-12
3PT: 1-4
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 3/6
TS%: 62.5
USG%: 13.8
STL: 3
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +9
PRA: 26

2026-11-04

MIN

HOME

35.3MIN

11POINTS

4 · 2 · 3-4

BELOW

FG: 3-4
3PT: 2-3
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 95.5
USG%: 8.1
STL: 0
BLK: 3
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: -8
PRA: 17

2026-11-02

BOS

HOME

36.1MIN

14POINTS

10 · 0 · 5-10

BELOW

FG: 5-10
3PT: 4-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/8
TS%: 70.0
USG%: 13.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +20
PRA: 24

2026-10-31

OKC

HOME

33.2MIN

30POINTS

9 · 5 · 10-18

ABOVE

FG: 10-18
3PT: 6-12
FT: 4-5
OREB/DREB: 1/8
TS%: 74.3
USG%: 27.8
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: +33
PRA: 44

2026-10-30

DAL

AWAY

35.2MIN

22POINTS

3 · 2 · 7-15

ABOVE

FG: 7-15
3PT: 3-7
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 64.0
USG%: 22.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: -9
PRA: 27

2026-10-28

MIL

AWAY

29.6MIN

14POINTS

2 · 2 · 4-12

BELOW

FG: 4-12
3PT: 3-6
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 52.6
USG%: 19.7
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: +23
PRA: 18

2026-10-26

ATL

HOME

38.5MIN

16POINTS

12 · 5 · 6-13

BELOW

FG: 6-13
3PT: 2-6
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 0/12
TS%: 55.9
USG%: 16.4
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +12
PRA: 33

2026-10-24

ATL

AWAY

33.3MIN

14POINTS

5 · 3 · 5-12

BELOW

FG: 5-12
3PT: 2-6
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 4/1
TS%: 54.3
USG%: 16.4
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: -2
PRA: 22

2026-10-21

DAL

HOME

36.5MIN

30POINTS

5 · 1 · 11-17

ABOVE

FG: 11-17
3PT: 4-8
FT: 4-5
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 78.1
USG%: 23.3
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +18
PRA: 36

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: vs GSW, Thu 02:30 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 20:32 UTC · lines as of 20:18 UTC

Projected 32.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 14.5 · Over -113 / Under -120 · 14 books

Case for the over

He averages 18.0 points over 10 games, above the 14.5 line.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 35.4 a game so far; 0.508 points per minute projects 16.3, +12% against the 14.5 line.
To forwards, GSW have allowed 59.6 points a game over 11 games, the 8th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 12.6% to 22.6%, 27.4 to 43.4 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) 19 vs 13.6 in his other games (Nov 7); Tristan da Silva (ORL) 19 vs 14.6 in his other games (Nov 7); Bam Adebayo (MIA) 18 vs 17.8 in his other games (Nov 5) and 6 more; mean +2.4 points against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 13.3 points, below the 14.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Shot volume is down: 9.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 12.6 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Rebounds 6.5 · Over -115 / Under -119 ·

Case for the over

Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 12.6% to 22.6%, 27.4 to 43.4 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) 11 vs 9.6 in his other games (Nov 7); Tristan da Silva (ORL) 7 vs 3.2 in his other games (Nov 7); Bam Adebayo (MIA) 10 vs 8.2 in his other games (Nov 5) and 6 more; mean +0.6 rebounds against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 35.4 a game so far; 0.186 rebounds per minute projects 6.0, -8% against the 6.5 line.
He has grabbed 7.7% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3 games (2 with on-court counts), down from 9.1% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
GSW have allowed 41.5 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
GSW miss 45.2 shots a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Assists 1.5 · Over -125 / Under -107 · 10 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 8 of 10 games this season (newest first: 3, 2, 2, 0, 5, 2, 2, 5, 3, 1); season average 2.5, last 3 average 2.3.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 35.4 a game so far; 0.071 assists per minute projects 2.3, +51% against the 1.5 line.
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 12.6% to 22.6%, 27.4 to 43.4 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Tristan da Silva (ORL) 2 vs 1.6 in his other games (Nov 7); Bam Adebayo (MIA) 0 vs 3.6 in his other games (Nov 5); Miles Bridges (PHX) 3 and 3 vs 3.1 in his other games (Nov 2, Oct 24) and 5 more; mean +0.5 assists against their own averages over 10 games from 8 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Threes 2.5 · Over +136 / Under -182 · 14 books

Case for the over

He averages 2.9 threes made over 10 games, above the 2.5 line.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 35.4 a game so far; 0.082 threes per minute projects 2.6, +5% against the 2.5 line.
To forwards, GSW have allowed 7.0 threes made a game over 11 games, the 7th-most of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 12.6% to 22.6%, 27.4 to 43.4 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Tristan da Silva (ORL) 5 vs 3.4 in his other games (Nov 7); Miles Bridges (PHX) 3 and 2 vs 1.8 in his other games (Nov 2, Oct 24); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 2 and 1 vs 2.0 in his other games (Nov 2, Oct 24) and 3 more; mean +0.2 threes made against their own averages over 8 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 1.7 threes made, below the 2.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Shot volume is down: 5.0 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 6.5 on the season. a hint, not a finding
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 60% (14 books at 2.5).

Pts+Reb+Ast 22.5 · Over -120 / Under -110 · 7 books

Case for the over

Over 22.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 24, 26, 17, 24, 44, 27, 18, 33, 22, 36); season average 27.1.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 35.4 a game so far; 0.765 PRA per minute projects 24.5, +9% against the 22.5 line.
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 12.6% to 22.6%, 27.4 to 43.4 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) 30 vs 24.2 in his other games (Nov 7); Tristan da Silva (ORL) 28 vs 19.5 in his other games (Nov 7); Bam Adebayo (MIA) 28 vs 29.6 in his other games (Nov 5) and 6 more; mean +3.3 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Shot volume is down: 9.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 12.6 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Pts+Reb 21.5 · Over -107 / Under -125 · 6 books

Case for the over

Over 21.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 21, 24, 15, 24, 39, 25, 16, 28, 19, 35); season average 24.6.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 35.4 a game so far; 0.694 PR per minute projects 22.2, +3% against the 21.5 line.
To forwards, GSW have allowed 84.2 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 10th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 12.6% to 22.6%, 27.4 to 43.4 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) 30 vs 23.1 in his other games (Nov 7); Tristan da Silva (ORL) 26 vs 17.9 in his other games (Nov 7); Bam Adebayo (MIA) 28 vs 26.0 in his other games (Nov 5) and 6 more; mean +3.0 points + rebounds against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 20.0 points + rebounds, below the 21.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Shot volume is down: 9.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 12.6 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Pts+Ast 16.5 · Over -106 / Under -125 · 6 books

Case for the over

Over 16.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 17, 17, 13, 14, 35, 24, 16, 21, 17, 31); season average 20.5.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 35.4 a game so far; 0.579 PA per minute projects 18.5, +12% against the 16.5 line.
To forwards, GSW have allowed 70.6 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 10th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 12.6% to 22.6%, 27.4 to 43.4 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) 19 vs 14.7 in his other games (Nov 7); Tristan da Silva (ORL) 21 vs 16.2 in his other games (Nov 7); Bam Adebayo (MIA) 18 vs 21.4 in his other games (Nov 5) and 6 more; mean +2.7 points + assists against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 15.7 points + assists, below the 16.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Shot volume is down: 9.7 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 12.6 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Reb+Ast 8.5 · Over -104 / Under -128 · 8 books

Case for the over

He averages 9.1 rebounds + assists over 10 games, above the 8.5 line.
His last 3 games average 9.0 rebounds + assists, above the 8.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 12.6% to 22.6%, 27.4 to 43.4 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) 11 vs 10.7 in his other games (Nov 7); Tristan da Silva (ORL) 9 vs 4.9 in his other games (Nov 7); Bam Adebayo (MIA) 10 vs 11.8 in his other games (Nov 5) and 6 more; mean +0.9 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 35.4 a game so far; 0.257 RA per minute projects 8.2, -3% against the 8.5 line.
He has grabbed 7.7% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3 games (2 with on-court counts), down from 9.1% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
GSW have allowed 68.3 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 10th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
GSW miss 45.2 shots a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 0.5 · Over -167 / Under +123 · 1 book

Case for the over

He averages 0.8 steals over 10 games, above the 0.5 line.
His last 3 games average 1.0 steals, above the 0.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 35.4 a game so far; 0.023 steals per minute projects 0.7, +45% against the 0.5 line.
GSW have allowed 9.0 steals a game over 11 games, the 10th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
GSW commit 15.8 turnovers a game, the 10th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the over at 58% (1 book at 0.5).

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Blocks 0.5 · Over -132 / Under -103 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 0, 1, 3, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 2, 0); season average 0.9, last 3 average 1.3.
Projected for 32.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 35.4 a game so far; 0.025 blocks per minute projects 0.8, +63% against the 0.5 line.
GSW have allowed 5.5 blocks a game over 11 games, the 8th-most of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

To forwards, GSW have allowed 2.3 blocks a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
GSW take 86.4 shots a game, the 10th-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs GSW (forwards; usage 12.6% to 22.6%, 27.4 to 43.4 min a game, at least 24.0 min in the game): Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) 2 vs 0.8 in his other games (Nov 7); Tristan da Silva (ORL) 0 vs 0.4 in his other games (Nov 7); Bam Adebayo (MIA) 1 vs 0.7 in his other games (Nov 5) and 6 more; mean -0.3 blocks against their own averages over 11 games from 9 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.