TOR · 2026 season

Jakob Poeltl

53 games played, 7 in the postseason · averaging 10.2 points. Each row is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 10.5 · POINTS · 2019–2026

HIT RATE48.8%206 of 422 games

INTERVAL44.1%–53.6%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+104at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+127if the rate is 44.1%

Jakob has cleared 10.5 points in 48.8% of 422 games since 2019, and in 20.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +104 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-05-03

CLE

AWAY

22.4MIN

9POINTS

7 · 0 · 4-5

BELOW

FG: 4-5
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-4
OREB/DREB: 2/5
TS%: 66.6
USG%: 16.7
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: +9
PRA: 16

2026-05-01

CLE

HOME

21.5MIN

2POINTS

4 · 1 · 1-3

BELOW

FG: 1-3
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 33.3
USG%: 6.6
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: 0
PRA: 7

2026-04-29

CLE

AWAY

20.8MIN

14POINTS

9 · 3 · 5-6

ABOVE

FG: 5-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 4-6
OREB/DREB: 0/9
TS%: 81.0
USG%: 16.6
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: +6
PRA: 26

2026-04-26

CLE

HOME

20.9MIN

10POINTS

6 · 1 · 4-7

BELOW

FG: 4-7
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 3/3
TS%: 63.5
USG%: 14.6
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -7
PRA: 17

2026-04-23

CLE

HOME

18.2MIN

8POINTS

6 · 2 · 4-6

BELOW

FG: 4-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 3/3
TS%: 66.7
USG%: 14.8
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: +4
PRA: 16

2026-04-20

CLE

AWAY

9.4MIN

2POINTS

4 · 1 · 1-2

BELOW

FG: 1-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 18.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: -7
PRA: 7

2026-04-18

CLE

AWAY

21.2MIN

4POINTS

6 · 2 · 1-2

BELOW

FG: 1-2
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 69.4
USG%: 10.7
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: 0
PRA: 12

2026-04-12

BKN

HOME

19.2MIN

11POINTS

5 · 2 · 5-5

ABOVE

FG: 5-5
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-5
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 76.4
USG%: 24.8
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 2
+/−: +16
PRA: 18

2026-04-10

AWAY

19.4MIN

4POINTS

3 · 1 · 2-3

BELOW

FG: 2-3
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 66.7
USG%: 12.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -14
PRA: 8

2026-04-09

MIA

HOME

17.4MIN

6POINTS

2 · 1 · 3-4

BELOW

FG: 3-4
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 75.0
USG%: 13.2
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +4
PRA: 9

2026-04-07

MIA

HOME

25.7MIN

17POINTS

6 · 3 · 8-13

ABOVE

FG: 8-13
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-3
OREB/DREB: 3/3
TS%: 59.4
USG%: 24.3
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +4
PRA: 26

2026-04-05

BOS

AWAY

20.1MIN

14POINTS

2 · 0 · 7-9

ABOVE

FG: 7-9
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 77.8
USG%: 26.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 4
+/−: -16
PRA: 16

2026-04-03

MEM

AWAY

22.8MIN

8POINTS

7 · 4 · 4-6

BELOW

FG: 4-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 66.7
USG%: 10.9
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: +14
PRA: 19

2026-04-01

SAC

HOME

28.2MIN

18POINTS

5 · 1 · 6-8

ABOVE

FG: 6-8
3PT: 0-0
FT: 6-8
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 78.1
USG%: 19.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -9
PRA: 24

2026-03-31

DET

AWAY

23.5MIN

13POINTS

4 · 1 · 6-9

ABOVE

FG: 6-9
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 3/1
TS%: 65.8
USG%: 17.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: -16
PRA: 18

2026-03-29

ORL

HOME

25.1MIN

11POINTS

7 · 3 · 5-7

ABOVE

FG: 5-7
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 69.8
USG%: 13.3
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +29
PRA: 21

2026-03-27

HOME

29.6MIN

18POINTS

11 · 3 · 9-11

ABOVE

FG: 9-11
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 4/7
TS%: 81.8
USG%: 17.1
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: +15
PRA: 32

2026-03-25

LAC

AWAY

21.5MIN

10POINTS

6 · 1 · 5-9

BELOW

FG: 5-9
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-2
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 50.6
USG%: 21.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -11
PRA: 17

2026-03-22

PHX

AWAY

16.6MIN

0POINTS

0 · 2 · 0-1

BELOW

FG: 0-1
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 2.8
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -13
PRA: 2

2026-03-20

DEN

AWAY

35.1MIN

23POINTS

11 · 2 · 10-14

ABOVE

FG: 10-14
3PT: 0-0
FT: 3-6
OREB/DREB: 5/6
TS%: 69.1
USG%: 21.4
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: -2
PRA: 36

2026-03-18

CHI

AWAY

21.0MIN

17POINTS

8 · 2 · 7-10

ABOVE

FG: 7-10
3PT: 0-0
FT: 3-3
OREB/DREB: 2/6
TS%: 75.1
USG%: 26.1
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: +33
PRA: 27

2026-03-15

DET

HOME

36.4MIN

21POINTS

18 · 5 · 9-12

ABOVE

FG: 9-12
3PT: 0-0
FT: 3-5
OREB/DREB: 9/9
TS%: 73.9
USG%: 16.4
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +2
PRA: 44

2026-03-13

PHX

HOME

21.0MIN

6POINTS

6 · 1 · 3-5

BELOW

FG: 3-5
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 60.0
USG%: 15.3
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: -3
PRA: 13

2026-03-11

AWAY

29.6MIN

8POINTS

5 · 0 · 4-7

BELOW

FG: 4-7
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 3/2
TS%: 57.1
USG%: 9.8
STL: 0
BLK: 3
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: -8
PRA: 13

2026-03-08

DAL

HOME

30.5MIN

16POINTS

10 · 4 · 8-9

ABOVE

FG: 8-9
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/8
TS%: 88.9
USG%: 14.0
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: +16
PRA: 30

2026-03-05

MIN

AWAY

29.1MIN

9POINTS

7 · 4 · 4-5

BELOW

FG: 4-5
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 3/4
TS%: 76.5
USG%: 10.8
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -23
PRA: 20

2026-03-03

HOME

29.9MIN

9POINTS

7 · 0 · 4-6

BELOW

FG: 4-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 2/5
TS%: 69.9
USG%: 13.8
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -10
PRA: 16

2026-02-28

WAS

AWAY

26.2MIN

18POINTS

10 · 3 · 7-7

ABOVE

FG: 7-7
3PT: 0-0
FT: 4-5
OREB/DREB: 3/7
TS%: 97.8
USG%: 17.6
STL: 3
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 6
+/−: +18
PRA: 31

2026-02-25

HOME

28.1MIN

15POINTS

7 · 2 · 5-11

ABOVE

FG: 5-11
3PT: 0-0
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 3/4
TS%: 56.8
USG%: 19.8
STL: 1
BLK: 3
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: +18
PRA: 24

2026-02-22

MIL

AWAY

25.8MIN

6POINTS

8 · 2 · 3-4

BELOW

FG: 3-4
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 4/4
TS%: 75.0
USG%: 6.8
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +14
PRA: 16

2026-02-19

CHI

AWAY

16.1MIN

2POINTS

0 · 1 · 1-1

BELOW

FG: 1-1
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 100.0
USG%: 7.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: +2
PRA: 3

2026-02-11

DET

HOME

20.1MIN

9POINTS

6 · 0 · 4-7

BELOW

FG: 4-7
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 57.1
USG%: 21.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 2
+/−: -2
PRA: 15

2025-12-21

BKN

AWAY

6.6MIN

2POINTS

2 · 0 · 1-1

BELOW

FG: 1-1
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 100.0
USG%: 13.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: 0
PRA: 4

2025-12-15

MIA

AWAY

29.4MIN

8POINTS

8 · 2 · 4-6

BELOW

FG: 4-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 2/6
TS%: 66.7
USG%: 14.7
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 2
+/−: -9
PRA: 18

2025-12-09

HOME

24.8MIN

10POINTS

9 · 3 · 5-7

BELOW

FG: 5-7
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 4/5
TS%: 71.4
USG%: 15.7
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -18
PRA: 22

2025-12-07

BOS

HOME

24.8MIN

10POINTS

4 · 0 · 4-9

BELOW

FG: 4-9
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 50.6
USG%: 17.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -18
PRA: 14

2025-12-05

CHA

HOME

22.6MIN

5POINTS

7 · 1 · 2-5

BELOW

FG: 2-5
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 3/4
TS%: 42.5
USG%: 16.2
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 3
+/−: -6
PRA: 13

2025-12-02

POR

HOME

26.4MIN

11POINTS

7 · 4 · 5-7

ABOVE

FG: 5-7
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 73.9
USG%: 14.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 5
+/−: +7
PRA: 22

2025-11-29

CHA

AWAY

32.5MIN

8POINTS

11 · 9 · 4-6

BELOW

FG: 4-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 5/6
TS%: 66.7
USG%: 12.1
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 3
PF: 4
+/−: -5
PRA: 28

2025-11-26

IND

HOME

31.6MIN

8POINTS

9 · 3 · 4-6

BELOW

FG: 4-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 3/6
TS%: 66.7
USG%: 10.6
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: +12
PRA: 20

2025-11-24

CLE

HOME

26.8MIN

7POINTS

13 · 1 · 3-4

BELOW

FG: 3-4
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 3/10
TS%: 78.8
USG%: 10.2
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +4
PRA: 21

2025-11-21

WAS

HOME

19.2MIN

3POINTS

9 · 1 · 1-1

BELOW

FG: 1-1
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 4/5
TS%: 79.8
USG%: 6.3
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +9
PRA: 13

2025-11-19

PHI

AWAY

32.8MIN

19POINTS

8 · 4 · 8-10

ABOVE

FG: 8-10
3PT: 0-0
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 3/5
TS%: 80.8
USG%: 17.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +4
PRA: 31

2025-11-17

CHA

HOME

31.7MIN

13POINTS

9 · 1 · 6-7

ABOVE

FG: 6-7
3PT: 0-0
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 1/8
TS%: 82.5
USG%: 12.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +6
PRA: 23

2025-11-15

IND

AWAY

25.9MIN

22POINTS

9 · 1 · 8-9

ABOVE

FG: 8-9
3PT: 0-0
FT: 6-14
OREB/DREB: 4/5
TS%: 72.6
USG%: 25.5
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +4
PRA: 32

2025-11-13

CLE

AWAY

29.4MIN

20POINTS

7 · 3 · 7-10

ABOVE

FG: 7-10
3PT: 0-0
FT: 6-6
OREB/DREB: 3/4
TS%: 79.1
USG%: 19.0
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +7
PRA: 30

2025-11-11

BKN

AWAY

29.6MIN

12POINTS

10 · 2 · 5-6

ABOVE

FG: 5-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 2-4
OREB/DREB: 4/6
TS%: 77.3
USG%: 11.4
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: +15
PRA: 24

2025-11-07

ATL

AWAY

25.2MIN

12POINTS

10 · 1 · 4-5

ABOVE

FG: 4-5
3PT: 0-0
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 3/7
TS%: 88.8
USG%: 14.6
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: +6
PRA: 23

2025-11-04

MIL

HOME

20.0MIN

8POINTS

9 · 0 · 4-6

BELOW

FG: 4-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 3/6
TS%: 66.7
USG%: 12.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: 0
PRA: 17

2025-10-27

AWAY

24.0MIN

2POINTS

2 · 1 · 1-6

BELOW

FG: 1-6
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/2
TS%: 16.7
USG%: 19.2
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 3
+/−: -9
PRA: 5

2025-10-26

DAL

AWAY

19.0MIN

4POINTS

8 · 4 · 2-3

BELOW

FG: 2-3
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-2
OREB/DREB: 5/3
TS%: 51.5
USG%: 9.9
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 5
+/−: -15
PRA: 16

2025-10-24

MIL

HOME

26.6MIN

6POINTS

5 · 2 · 3-5

BELOW

FG: 3-5
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-2
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 51.0
USG%: 10.8
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 5
+/−: -1
PRA: 13

2025-10-22

ATL

AWAY

22.4MIN

14POINTS

6 · 2 · 7-8

ABOVE

FG: 7-8
3PT: 0-0
FT: 0-1
OREB/DREB: 3/3
TS%: 82.9
USG%: 17.7
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 2
PF: 6
+/−: -3
PRA: 22

every game on file — nothing hidden