TOR · G · 2026 season

Ja'Kobe Walter

Next game: vs BOS, Thu 00:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 88 minutes before tip, 22:32 UTC · lines as of 22:15 UTC

Projected 33.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 12.5 · Over -120 / Under -109 · 14 books

Case for the over

Shot volume is up: 11.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 9.3 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

Under 12.5 in 8 of 10 games this season (newest first: 12, 7, 8, 10, 11, 9, 14, 22, 7, 10); season average 11.0, last 3 average 9.0.
The projection assumes 33.0 minutes, more than his 29.6 a game so far.
BOS have allowed 104.0 points a game over 11 games, the 2nd-fewest of 30; to guards, 53.3 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 6th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS average 99.0 possessions a game, the 5th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs BOS (guards; usage 10.4% to 20.4%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 25.0 min in the game): VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 8 vs 13.2 in his other games (Nov 10); Fred VanVleet (HOU) 8 vs 13.9 in his other games (Nov 2); Amen Thompson (HOU) 14 vs 14.4 in his other games (Nov 2) and 3 more; mean -1.7 points against their own averages over 6 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 4.5 · Over +120 / Under -160 · 12 books

Case for the over

Projected for 33.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 29.6 a game so far; 0.142 rebounds per minute projects 4.7, +4% against the 4.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 4.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 6, 6, 1, 6, 4, 3, 5, 4, 4, 3); season average 4.2, last 3 average 4.3.
The projection assumes 33.0 minutes, more than his 29.6 a game so far.
BOS average 99.0 possessions a game, the 5th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs BOS (guards; usage 10.4% to 20.4%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 25.0 min in the game): VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 4 vs 6.5 in his other games (Nov 10); Fred VanVleet (HOU) 2 vs 3.4 in his other games (Nov 2); mean -2.0 rebounds against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 58% (12 books at 4.5).

Assists 2.5 · Over +139 / Under -192 · 4 books

Case for the over

Role comparables vs BOS (guards; usage 10.4% to 20.4%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 25.0 min in the game): VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 5 vs 2.9 in his other games (Nov 10); Amen Thompson (HOU) 3 vs 2.9 in his other games (Nov 2); Jase Richardson (ORL) 3 vs 2.4 in his other games (Nov 1) and 1 more; mean +1.3 assists against their own averages over 4 games from 4 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 2.5 in 8 of 10 games this season (newest first: 0, 2, 2, 5, 2, 1, 2, 2, 2, 4); season average 2.2, last 3 average 1.3.
The projection assumes 33.0 minutes, more than his 29.6 a game so far.
He has assisted on 6.8% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3, down from 10% on the season. a hint, not a finding
BOS have allowed 25.0 assists a game over 11 games, the 10th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS allow 42.3% shooting from the field, the 2nd-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 61% (4 books at 2.5).

Threes 2.5 · Over -130 / Under -103 · 14 books

Case for the over

BOS have allowed 14.5 threes made a game over 11 games, the 5th-most of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS allow 43.2 three-point attempts a game, the 2nd-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 2.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 2, 1, 1, 0, 3, 3, 3, 5, 2, 1); season average 2.1, last 3 average 1.3.
Projected for 33.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 29.6 a game so far; 0.071 threes per minute projects 2.3, -6% against the 2.5 line.
The projection assumes 33.0 minutes, more than his 29.6 a game so far.
To guards, BOS have allowed 7.6 threes made a game over 11 games, the 10th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS average 99.0 possessions a game, the 5th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs BOS (guards; usage 10.4% to 20.4%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 25.0 min in the game): VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 0 vs 1.9 in his other games (Nov 10); Fred VanVleet (HOU) 2 vs 2.9 in his other games (Nov 2); Josh Hart (NYK) 2 vs 1.8 in his other games (Oct 23); mean -0.9 threes made against their own averages over 3 games from 3 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 19.5 · Over -107 / Under -123 · 11 books

Case for the over

Shot volume is up: 11.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 9.3 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

Under 19.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 18, 15, 11, 21, 17, 13, 21, 28, 13, 17); season average 17.4, last 3 average 14.7.
The projection assumes 33.0 minutes, more than his 29.6 a game so far.
BOS have allowed 172.4 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 4th-fewest of 30; to guards, 85.2 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 6th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS average 99.0 possessions a game, the 5th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 17.5 · Over -104 / Under -125 · 6 books

Case for the over

Shot volume is up: 11.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 9.3 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

Under 17.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 18, 13, 9, 16, 15, 12, 19, 26, 11, 13); season average 15.2, last 3 average 13.3.
Projected for 33.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 29.6 a game so far; 0.514 PR per minute projects 17.0, -3% against the 17.5 line.
The projection assumes 33.0 minutes, more than his 29.6 a game so far.
BOS have allowed 147.4 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 3rd-fewest of 30; to guards, 69.6 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 6th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs BOS (guards; usage 10.4% to 20.4%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 25.0 min in the game): VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 12 vs 19.7 in his other games (Nov 10); Fred VanVleet (HOU) 10 vs 17.3 in his other games (Nov 2); Amen Thompson (HOU) 17 vs 21.2 in his other games (Nov 2) and 3 more; mean -1.8 points + rebounds against their own averages over 6 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 14.5 · Over -127 / Under -105 · 7 books

Case for the over

Shot volume is up: 11.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 9.3 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

Under 14.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 12, 9, 10, 15, 13, 10, 16, 24, 9, 14); season average 13.2, last 3 average 10.3.
The projection assumes 33.0 minutes, more than his 29.6 a game so far.
BOS have allowed 129.0 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 3rd-fewest of 30; to guards, 68.8 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 6th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS average 99.0 possessions a game, the 5th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 6.5 · Over -100 / Under -130 · 8 books

Case for the over

Projected for 33.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 29.6 a game so far; 0.216 RA per minute projects 7.1, +10% against the 6.5 line.
Role comparables vs BOS (guards; usage 10.4% to 20.4%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 25.0 min in the game): VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 9 vs 9.4 in his other games (Nov 10); Fred VanVleet (HOU) 11 vs 8.6 in his other games (Nov 2); Amen Thompson (HOU) 6 vs 9.7 in his other games (Nov 2) and 2 more; mean +0.3 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 5 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 6.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 6, 8, 3, 11, 6, 4, 7, 6, 6, 7); last 3 average 5.7.
The projection assumes 33.0 minutes, more than his 29.6 a game so far.
To guards, BOS have allowed 31.9 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 10th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS average 99.0 possessions a game, the 5th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 53% (8 books at 6.5).

Steals 1.5 · Over +130 / Under -180 · 5 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3); season average 1.2, last 3 average 0.3.
Projected for 33.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 29.6 a game so far; 0.041 steals per minute projects 1.3, -11% against the 1.5 line.
The projection assumes 33.0 minutes, more than his 29.6 a game so far.
BOS have allowed 6.9 steals a game over 11 games, the 5th-fewest of 30; to guards, 3.9 a game, the 6th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs BOS (guards; usage 10.4% to 20.4%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 25.0 min in the game): VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 1 vs 1.6 in his other games (Nov 10); Fred VanVleet (HOU) 1 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 2); Amen Thompson (HOU) 1 vs 1.1 in his other games (Nov 2) and 4 more; mean -0.3 steals against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 59% (5 books at 1.5).

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

10 games played · averaging 11.0 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 11.5 · POINTS · 2024–2026

HIT RATE28.4%40 of 141 games

INTERVAL21.6%–36.3%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+252at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+363if the rate is 21.6%

Ja'Kobe has cleared 11.5 points in 28.4% of 141 games since 2024, and in 30.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +252 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-09

MEM

HOME

34.3MIN

12POINTS

6 · 0 · 4-13

ABOVE

FG: 4-13
3PT: 2-7
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 43.2
USG%: 18.9
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -21
PRA: 18

2026-11-06

MIL

AWAY

28.5MIN

7POINTS

6 · 2 · 2-12

BELOW

FG: 2-12
3PT: 1-7
FT: 2-3
OREB/DREB: 1/5
TS%: 26.3
USG%: 19.6
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -12
PRA: 15

2026-11-04

DEN

AWAY

27.4MIN

8POINTS

1 · 2 · 3-8

BELOW

FG: 3-8
3PT: 1-6
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 1/0
TS%: 45.0
USG%: 17.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 1
+/−: -9
PRA: 11

2026-11-02

LAC

AWAY

34.8MIN

10POINTS

6 · 5 · 2-6

BELOW

FG: 2-6
3PT: 0-3
FT: 6-10
OREB/DREB: 4/2
TS%: 48.1
USG%: 13.4
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 5
+/−: +10
PRA: 21

2026-11-01

LAL

AWAY

32.7MIN

11POINTS

4 · 2 · 4-12

BELOW

FG: 4-12
3PT: 3-9
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 45.8
USG%: 14.6
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -10
PRA: 17

2026-10-30

ORL

HOME

32.1MIN

9POINTS

3 · 1 · 3-5

BELOW

FG: 3-5
3PT: 3-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 90.0
USG%: 6.9
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: -2
PRA: 13

2026-10-28

ORL

HOME

27.6MIN

14POINTS

5 · 2 · 5-9

ABOVE

FG: 5-9
3PT: 3-7
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 1/4
TS%: 74.2
USG%: 14.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: +13
PRA: 21

2026-10-25

MIN

AWAY

31.2MIN

22POINTS

4 · 2 · 7-12

ABOVE

FG: 7-12
3PT: 5-8
FT: 3-4
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 79.9
USG%: 19.6
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: -22
PRA: 28

2026-10-23

WAS

AWAY

23.9MIN

7POINTS

4 · 2 · 2-8

BELOW

FG: 2-8
3PT: 2-7
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 39.4
USG%: 14.1
STL: 2
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +19
PRA: 13

2026-10-21

CHI

HOME

23.3MIN

10POINTS

3 · 4 · 4-8

BELOW

FG: 4-8
3PT: 1-5
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 56.3
USG%: 15.9
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: +18
PRA: 17

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: vs BOS, Thu 00:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 88 minutes before tip, 22:32 UTC · lines as of 22:15 UTC

Projected 33.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 12.5 · Over -120 / Under -109 · 14 books

Case for the over

Shot volume is up: 11.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 9.3 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

Under 12.5 in 8 of 10 games this season (newest first: 12, 7, 8, 10, 11, 9, 14, 22, 7, 10); season average 11.0, last 3 average 9.0.
The projection assumes 33.0 minutes, more than his 29.6 a game so far.
BOS have allowed 104.0 points a game over 11 games, the 2nd-fewest of 30; to guards, 53.3 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 6th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS average 99.0 possessions a game, the 5th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs BOS (guards; usage 10.4% to 20.4%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 25.0 min in the game): VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 8 vs 13.2 in his other games (Nov 10); Fred VanVleet (HOU) 8 vs 13.9 in his other games (Nov 2); Amen Thompson (HOU) 14 vs 14.4 in his other games (Nov 2) and 3 more; mean -1.7 points against their own averages over 6 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 4.5 · Over +120 / Under -160 · 12 books

Case for the over

Projected for 33.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 29.6 a game so far; 0.142 rebounds per minute projects 4.7, +4% against the 4.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 4.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 6, 6, 1, 6, 4, 3, 5, 4, 4, 3); season average 4.2, last 3 average 4.3.
The projection assumes 33.0 minutes, more than his 29.6 a game so far.
BOS average 99.0 possessions a game, the 5th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs BOS (guards; usage 10.4% to 20.4%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 25.0 min in the game): VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 4 vs 6.5 in his other games (Nov 10); Fred VanVleet (HOU) 2 vs 3.4 in his other games (Nov 2); mean -2.0 rebounds against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 58% (12 books at 4.5).

Assists 2.5 · Over +139 / Under -192 · 4 books

Case for the over

Role comparables vs BOS (guards; usage 10.4% to 20.4%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 25.0 min in the game): VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 5 vs 2.9 in his other games (Nov 10); Amen Thompson (HOU) 3 vs 2.9 in his other games (Nov 2); Jase Richardson (ORL) 3 vs 2.4 in his other games (Nov 1) and 1 more; mean +1.3 assists against their own averages over 4 games from 4 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 2.5 in 8 of 10 games this season (newest first: 0, 2, 2, 5, 2, 1, 2, 2, 2, 4); season average 2.2, last 3 average 1.3.
The projection assumes 33.0 minutes, more than his 29.6 a game so far.
He has assisted on 6.8% of his teammates' made shots while on the floor over his last 3, down from 10% on the season. a hint, not a finding
BOS have allowed 25.0 assists a game over 11 games, the 10th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS allow 42.3% shooting from the field, the 2nd-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 61% (4 books at 2.5).

Threes 2.5 · Over -130 / Under -103 · 14 books

Case for the over

BOS have allowed 14.5 threes made a game over 11 games, the 5th-most of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS allow 43.2 three-point attempts a game, the 2nd-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 2.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 2, 1, 1, 0, 3, 3, 3, 5, 2, 1); season average 2.1, last 3 average 1.3.
Projected for 33.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 29.6 a game so far; 0.071 threes per minute projects 2.3, -6% against the 2.5 line.
The projection assumes 33.0 minutes, more than his 29.6 a game so far.
To guards, BOS have allowed 7.6 threes made a game over 11 games, the 10th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS average 99.0 possessions a game, the 5th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs BOS (guards; usage 10.4% to 20.4%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 25.0 min in the game): VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 0 vs 1.9 in his other games (Nov 10); Fred VanVleet (HOU) 2 vs 2.9 in his other games (Nov 2); Josh Hart (NYK) 2 vs 1.8 in his other games (Oct 23); mean -0.9 threes made against their own averages over 3 games from 3 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 19.5 · Over -107 / Under -123 · 11 books

Case for the over

Shot volume is up: 11.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 9.3 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

Under 19.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 18, 15, 11, 21, 17, 13, 21, 28, 13, 17); season average 17.4, last 3 average 14.7.
The projection assumes 33.0 minutes, more than his 29.6 a game so far.
BOS have allowed 172.4 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 4th-fewest of 30; to guards, 85.2 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 6th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS average 99.0 possessions a game, the 5th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 17.5 · Over -104 / Under -125 · 6 books

Case for the over

Shot volume is up: 11.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 9.3 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

Under 17.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 18, 13, 9, 16, 15, 12, 19, 26, 11, 13); season average 15.2, last 3 average 13.3.
Projected for 33.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 29.6 a game so far; 0.514 PR per minute projects 17.0, -3% against the 17.5 line.
The projection assumes 33.0 minutes, more than his 29.6 a game so far.
BOS have allowed 147.4 points + rebounds a game over 11 games, the 3rd-fewest of 30; to guards, 69.6 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 6th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs BOS (guards; usage 10.4% to 20.4%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 25.0 min in the game): VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 12 vs 19.7 in his other games (Nov 10); Fred VanVleet (HOU) 10 vs 17.3 in his other games (Nov 2); Amen Thompson (HOU) 17 vs 21.2 in his other games (Nov 2) and 3 more; mean -1.8 points + rebounds against their own averages over 6 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 14.5 · Over -127 / Under -105 · 7 books

Case for the over

Shot volume is up: 11.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 9.3 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

Under 14.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 12, 9, 10, 15, 13, 10, 16, 24, 9, 14); season average 13.2, last 3 average 10.3.
The projection assumes 33.0 minutes, more than his 29.6 a game so far.
BOS have allowed 129.0 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 3rd-fewest of 30; to guards, 68.8 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS allow 105.0 points per 100 possessions, the 6th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS average 99.0 possessions a game, the 5th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 6.5 · Over -100 / Under -130 · 8 books

Case for the over

Projected for 33.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 29.6 a game so far; 0.216 RA per minute projects 7.1, +10% against the 6.5 line.
Role comparables vs BOS (guards; usage 10.4% to 20.4%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 25.0 min in the game): VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 9 vs 9.4 in his other games (Nov 10); Fred VanVleet (HOU) 11 vs 8.6 in his other games (Nov 2); Amen Thompson (HOU) 6 vs 9.7 in his other games (Nov 2) and 2 more; mean +0.3 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 5 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 6.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 6, 8, 3, 11, 6, 4, 7, 6, 6, 7); last 3 average 5.7.
The projection assumes 33.0 minutes, more than his 29.6 a game so far.
To guards, BOS have allowed 31.9 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 10th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
BOS average 99.0 possessions a game, the 5th-slowest pace of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 53% (8 books at 6.5).

Steals 1.5 · Over +130 / Under -180 · 5 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 7 of 10 games this season (newest first: 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3); season average 1.2, last 3 average 0.3.
Projected for 33.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 29.6 a game so far; 0.041 steals per minute projects 1.3, -11% against the 1.5 line.
The projection assumes 33.0 minutes, more than his 29.6 a game so far.
BOS have allowed 6.9 steals a game over 11 games, the 5th-fewest of 30; to guards, 3.9 a game, the 6th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs BOS (guards; usage 10.4% to 20.4%, 21.6 to 37.6 min a game, at least 25.0 min in the game): VJ Edgecombe (PHI) 1 vs 1.6 in his other games (Nov 10); Fred VanVleet (HOU) 1 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 2); Amen Thompson (HOU) 1 vs 1.1 in his other games (Nov 2) and 4 more; mean -0.3 steals against their own averages over 7 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 59% (5 books at 1.5).