CHI · F-C · 2026 season

Jalen Smith

Next game: vs SAS, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 19:02 UTC · lines as of 18:36 UTC

Projected 20.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 9 games this season

Points 12.5 · Over -117 / Under -119 · 10 books

Case for the over

Over 12.5 in 6 of 9 games this season (newest first: 17, 3 (7.1 min), 13, 5, 17, 7, 14, 14, 15).
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.4 a game so far.

Case for the under

He averages 11.7 points over 9 games, below the 12.5 line.
His last 3 games average 11.0 points, below the 12.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.4 a game so far; 0.499 points per minute projects 10.0, -20% against the 12.5 line.
SAS have allowed 106.3 points a game over 10 games, the 6th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 45.7 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 103.9 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 13% to 23%, 15.4 to 31.4 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 7 vs 6.4 in his other games (Nov 9); Miles Bridges (PHX) 7 vs 15.9 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 7 vs 15.8 in his other games (Nov 9) and 13 more; mean -2.0 points against their own averages over 23 games from 16 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 7.5 · Over -105 / Under -125 · 13 books

Case for the over

Over 7.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 8, 2 (7.1 min), 7, 12, 11, 6, 3, 13, 8); season average 7.8.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.4 a game so far.
SAS miss 49.4 shots a game, the 7th-most of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 5.7 rebounds, below the 7.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.4 a game so far; 0.333 rebounds per minute projects 6.7, -11% against the 7.5 line.
To forwards, SAS have allowed 22.3 rebounds a game over 10 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 13% to 23%, 15.4 to 31.4 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 4 vs 5.7 in his other games (Nov 9); Miles Bridges (PHX) 5 vs 7.7 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 4 vs 3.9 in his other games (Nov 9) and 10 more; mean -1.9 rebounds against their own averages over 19 games from 13 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Assists 1.5 · Over -105 / Under -130 · 9 books

Case for the over

He averages 1.8 assists over 9 games, above the 1.5 line.
His last 3 games average 2.0 assists, above the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.4 a game so far.

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 6 of 9 games this season (newest first: 2, 0 (7.1 min), 4, 1, 5, 1, 1, 1, 1).
SAS have allowed 24.3 assists a game over 10 games, the 7th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 8.9 a game, the 5th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 42.7% shooting from the field, the 3rd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 13% to 23%, 15.4 to 31.4 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Dillon Brooks (PHX) 0 vs 2.4 in his other games (Nov 9); Toumani Camara (POR) 0 vs 1.4 in his other games (Nov 7); Precious Achiuwa (SAC) 0 and 0 vs 1.3 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 27) and 10 more; mean -0.3 assists against their own averages over 20 games from 13 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 1.5 · Over -130 / Under -102 · 13 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 2, 1 (7.1 min), 1, 0, 3, 2, 2, 2, 0).
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.4 a game so far.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 53% (13 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 1.3 threes made, below the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.4 a game so far; 0.062 threes per minute projects 1.2, -18% against the 1.5 line.
Shot volume is down: 4.0 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.9 on the season. a hint, not a finding
SAS have allowed 12.2 threes made a game over 10 games, the 9th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 4.6 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 33.5 three-point attempts a game, the fewest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 13% to 23%, 15.4 to 31.4 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Miles Bridges (PHX) 0 vs 2.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 1 vs 2.0 in his other games (Nov 9); Zaccharie Risacher (DAL) 0 and 1 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 24) and 7 more; mean -0.3 threes made against their own averages over 14 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 21.5 · Over -111 / Under -117 · 8 books

Case for the over

Over 21.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 27, 5 (7.1 min), 24, 18, 33, 14, 18, 28, 24).
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.4 a game so far.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 18.7 points + rebounds + assists, below the 21.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.4 a game so far; 0.908 PRA per minute projects 18.2, -16% against the 21.5 line.
SAS have allowed 173.6 points + rebounds + assists a game over 10 games, the 5th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 76.9 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 103.9 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 13% to 23%, 15.4 to 31.4 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 13 vs 15.4 in his other games (Nov 9); Miles Bridges (PHX) 12 vs 27.0 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 11 vs 22.1 in his other games (Nov 9) and 13 more; mean -3.9 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 23 games from 16 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 19.5 · Over -118 / Under -110 · 6 books

Case for the over

Over 19.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 25, 5 (7.1 min), 20, 17, 28, 13, 17, 27, 23).
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.4 a game so far.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 16.7 points + rebounds, below the 19.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.4 a game so far; 0.832 PR per minute projects 16.6, -15% against the 19.5 line.
SAS have allowed 149.3 points + rebounds a game over 10 games, the 4th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 68.0 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 103.9 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 13% to 23%, 15.4 to 31.4 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 11 vs 12.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Miles Bridges (PHX) 12 vs 23.6 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 11 vs 19.7 in his other games (Nov 9) and 13 more; mean -3.4 points + rebounds against their own averages over 23 games from 16 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 13.5 · Over -120 / Under -110 · 4 books

Case for the over

Over 13.5 in 6 of 9 games this season (newest first: 19, 3 (7.1 min), 17, 6, 22, 8, 15, 15, 16).
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.4 a game so far.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 13.0 points + assists, below the 13.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.4 a game so far; 0.575 PA per minute projects 11.5, -15% against the 13.5 line.
SAS have allowed 130.6 points + assists a game over 10 games, the 6th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 54.6 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 103.9 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 13% to 23%, 15.4 to 31.4 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 9 vs 9.7 in his other games (Nov 9); Miles Bridges (PHX) 7 vs 19.3 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 7 vs 18.2 in his other games (Nov 9) and 13 more; mean -2.5 points + assists against their own averages over 23 games from 16 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 8.5 · Over -138 / Under +105 · 5 books

Case for the over

Over 8.5 in 6 of 9 games this season (newest first: 10, 2 (7.1 min), 11, 13, 16, 7, 4, 14, 9); season average 9.6.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.4 a game so far.
SAS miss 49.4 shots a game, the 7th-most of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 54% (5 books at 8.5).

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 7.7 rebounds + assists, below the 8.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.4 a game so far; 0.409 RA per minute projects 8.2, -4% against the 8.5 line.
SAS have allowed 67.3 rebounds + assists a game over 10 games, the 9th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 31.2 a game, the 5th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 13% to 23%, 15.4 to 31.4 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 6 vs 9.0 in his other games (Nov 9); Miles Bridges (PHX) 5 vs 11.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 4 vs 6.3 in his other games (Nov 9) and 12 more; mean -2.0 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 22 games from 15 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 0.5 · Over +108 / Under -148 · 1 book

Case for the over

The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.4 a game so far.

Case for the under

Under 0.5 in 8 of 9 games this season (newest first: 0, 0 (7.1 min), 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 0); season average 0.3, last 3 average 0.0.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.4 a game so far; 0.014 steals per minute projects 0.3, -43% against the 0.5 line.
SAS have allowed 6.6 steals a game over 10 games, the 3rd-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team; to forwards, 3.2 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS commit 12.2 turnovers a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 13% to 23%, 15.4 to 31.4 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 0 vs 0.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Miles Bridges (PHX) 0 vs 1.3 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 0 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 9) and 14 more; mean -0.4 steals against their own averages over 25 games from 17 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the under at 55% (1 book at 0.5).

Blocks 0.5 · Over -177 / Under +130 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 4, 1 (7.1 min), 0, 2, 3, 0, 0, 0, 1); season average 1.2, last 3 average 1.7.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.4 a game so far; 0.052 blocks per minute projects 1.0, +109% against the 0.5 line.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.4 a game so far.
SAS take 91.7 shots a game, the 3rd-most of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the over at 60% (1 book at 0.5).

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

9 games played · averaging 11.7 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 11.5 · POINTS · 2020–2026

HIT RATE32.1%111 of 346 games

INTERVAL27.4%–37.2%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+211at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+265if the rate is 27.4%

Jalen has cleared 11.5 points in 32.1% of 346 games since 2020, and in 60.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +211 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-08

PHI

HOME

30.3MIN

17POINTS

8 · 2 · 7-11

ABOVE

FG: 7-11
3PT: 2-5
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 0/8
TS%: 71.5
USG%: 16.9
STL: 0
BLK: 4
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: +3
PRA: 27

2026-11-04

AWAY

7.1MIN

3POINTS

2 · 0 · 1-3

BELOW

FG: 1-3
3PT: 1-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 50.0
USG%: 17.0
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: -15
PRA: 5

2026-11-02

PHI

AWAY

28.0MIN

13POINTS

7 · 4 · 6-10

ABOVE

FG: 6-10
3PT: 1-4
FT: 0-1
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 62.3
USG%: 15.4
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 2
+/−: -15
PRA: 24

2026-10-30

BOS

AWAY

27.4MIN

5POINTS

12 · 1 · 2-8

BELOW

FG: 2-8
3PT: 0-5
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 4/8
TS%: 28.2
USG%: 13.8
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: +3
PRA: 18

2026-10-28

HOME

29.7MIN

17POINTS

11 · 5 · 7-12

ABOVE

FG: 7-12
3PT: 3-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/10
TS%: 70.8
USG%: 16.7
STL: 0
BLK: 3
TOV: 0
PF: 4
+/−: +12
PRA: 33

2026-10-26

BOS

AWAY

20.1MIN

7POINTS

6 · 1 · 2-8

BELOW

FG: 2-8
3PT: 2-5
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 41.5
USG%: 20.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: 0
PRA: 14

2026-10-24

WAS

HOME

24.4MIN

14POINTS

3 · 1 · 5-11

ABOVE

FG: 5-11
3PT: 2-7
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 1/2
TS%: 58.9
USG%: 23.1
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: -8
PRA: 18

2026-10-23

MIL

AWAY

24.4MIN

14POINTS

13 · 1 · 6-10

ABOVE

FG: 6-10
3PT: 2-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 5/8
TS%: 70.0
USG%: 17.3
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +4
PRA: 28

2026-10-21

TOR

AWAY

19.0MIN

15POINTS

8 · 1 · 5-10

ABOVE

FG: 5-10
3PT: 0-3
FT: 5-6
OREB/DREB: 4/4
TS%: 59.3
USG%: 24.1
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: -19
PRA: 24

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: vs SAS, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 19:02 UTC · lines as of 18:36 UTC

Projected 20.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 9 games this season

Points 12.5 · Over -117 / Under -119 · 10 books

Case for the over

Over 12.5 in 6 of 9 games this season (newest first: 17, 3 (7.1 min), 13, 5, 17, 7, 14, 14, 15).
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.4 a game so far.

Case for the under

He averages 11.7 points over 9 games, below the 12.5 line.
His last 3 games average 11.0 points, below the 12.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.4 a game so far; 0.499 points per minute projects 10.0, -20% against the 12.5 line.
SAS have allowed 106.3 points a game over 10 games, the 6th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 45.7 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 103.9 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 13% to 23%, 15.4 to 31.4 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 7 vs 6.4 in his other games (Nov 9); Miles Bridges (PHX) 7 vs 15.9 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 7 vs 15.8 in his other games (Nov 9) and 13 more; mean -2.0 points against their own averages over 23 games from 16 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 7.5 · Over -105 / Under -125 · 13 books

Case for the over

Over 7.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 8, 2 (7.1 min), 7, 12, 11, 6, 3, 13, 8); season average 7.8.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.4 a game so far.
SAS miss 49.4 shots a game, the 7th-most of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 5.7 rebounds, below the 7.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.4 a game so far; 0.333 rebounds per minute projects 6.7, -11% against the 7.5 line.
To forwards, SAS have allowed 22.3 rebounds a game over 10 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 13% to 23%, 15.4 to 31.4 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 4 vs 5.7 in his other games (Nov 9); Miles Bridges (PHX) 5 vs 7.7 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 4 vs 3.9 in his other games (Nov 9) and 10 more; mean -1.9 rebounds against their own averages over 19 games from 13 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Assists 1.5 · Over -105 / Under -130 · 9 books

Case for the over

He averages 1.8 assists over 9 games, above the 1.5 line.
His last 3 games average 2.0 assists, above the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.4 a game so far.

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 6 of 9 games this season (newest first: 2, 0 (7.1 min), 4, 1, 5, 1, 1, 1, 1).
SAS have allowed 24.3 assists a game over 10 games, the 7th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 8.9 a game, the 5th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 42.7% shooting from the field, the 3rd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 13% to 23%, 15.4 to 31.4 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Dillon Brooks (PHX) 0 vs 2.4 in his other games (Nov 9); Toumani Camara (POR) 0 vs 1.4 in his other games (Nov 7); Precious Achiuwa (SAC) 0 and 0 vs 1.3 in his other games (Nov 6, Oct 27) and 10 more; mean -0.3 assists against their own averages over 20 games from 13 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 1.5 · Over -130 / Under -102 · 13 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 2, 1 (7.1 min), 1, 0, 3, 2, 2, 2, 0).
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.4 a game so far.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 53% (13 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 1.3 threes made, below the 1.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.4 a game so far; 0.062 threes per minute projects 1.2, -18% against the 1.5 line.
Shot volume is down: 4.0 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.9 on the season. a hint, not a finding
SAS have allowed 12.2 threes made a game over 10 games, the 9th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 4.6 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 33.5 three-point attempts a game, the fewest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 13% to 23%, 15.4 to 31.4 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Miles Bridges (PHX) 0 vs 2.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 1 vs 2.0 in his other games (Nov 9); Zaccharie Risacher (DAL) 0 and 1 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 4, Oct 24) and 7 more; mean -0.3 threes made against their own averages over 14 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 21.5 · Over -111 / Under -117 · 8 books

Case for the over

Over 21.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 27, 5 (7.1 min), 24, 18, 33, 14, 18, 28, 24).
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.4 a game so far.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 18.7 points + rebounds + assists, below the 21.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.4 a game so far; 0.908 PRA per minute projects 18.2, -16% against the 21.5 line.
SAS have allowed 173.6 points + rebounds + assists a game over 10 games, the 5th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 76.9 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 103.9 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 13% to 23%, 15.4 to 31.4 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 13 vs 15.4 in his other games (Nov 9); Miles Bridges (PHX) 12 vs 27.0 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 11 vs 22.1 in his other games (Nov 9) and 13 more; mean -3.9 points + rebounds + assists against their own averages over 23 games from 16 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 19.5 · Over -118 / Under -110 · 6 books

Case for the over

Over 19.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 25, 5 (7.1 min), 20, 17, 28, 13, 17, 27, 23).
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.4 a game so far.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 16.7 points + rebounds, below the 19.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.4 a game so far; 0.832 PR per minute projects 16.6, -15% against the 19.5 line.
SAS have allowed 149.3 points + rebounds a game over 10 games, the 4th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 68.0 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 103.9 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 13% to 23%, 15.4 to 31.4 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 11 vs 12.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Miles Bridges (PHX) 12 vs 23.6 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 11 vs 19.7 in his other games (Nov 9) and 13 more; mean -3.4 points + rebounds against their own averages over 23 games from 16 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 13.5 · Over -120 / Under -110 · 4 books

Case for the over

Over 13.5 in 6 of 9 games this season (newest first: 19, 3 (7.1 min), 17, 6, 22, 8, 15, 15, 16).
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.4 a game so far.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 13.0 points + assists, below the 13.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.4 a game so far; 0.575 PA per minute projects 11.5, -15% against the 13.5 line.
SAS have allowed 130.6 points + assists a game over 10 games, the 6th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 54.6 a game, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS allow 103.9 points per 100 possessions, the 2nd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 13% to 23%, 15.4 to 31.4 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 9 vs 9.7 in his other games (Nov 9); Miles Bridges (PHX) 7 vs 19.3 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 7 vs 18.2 in his other games (Nov 9) and 13 more; mean -2.5 points + assists against their own averages over 23 games from 16 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 8.5 · Over -138 / Under +105 · 5 books

Case for the over

Over 8.5 in 6 of 9 games this season (newest first: 10, 2 (7.1 min), 11, 13, 16, 7, 4, 14, 9); season average 9.6.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.4 a game so far.
SAS miss 49.4 shots a game, the 7th-most of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 54% (5 books at 8.5).

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 7.7 rebounds + assists, below the 8.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.4 a game so far; 0.409 RA per minute projects 8.2, -4% against the 8.5 line.
SAS have allowed 67.3 rebounds + assists a game over 10 games, the 9th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 31.2 a game, the 5th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 13% to 23%, 15.4 to 31.4 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 6 vs 9.0 in his other games (Nov 9); Miles Bridges (PHX) 5 vs 11.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 4 vs 6.3 in his other games (Nov 9) and 12 more; mean -2.0 rebounds + assists against their own averages over 22 games from 15 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 0.5 · Over +108 / Under -148 · 1 book

Case for the over

The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.4 a game so far.

Case for the under

Under 0.5 in 8 of 9 games this season (newest first: 0, 0 (7.1 min), 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 0); season average 0.3, last 3 average 0.0.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.4 a game so far; 0.014 steals per minute projects 0.3, -43% against the 0.5 line.
SAS have allowed 6.6 steals a game over 10 games, the 3rd-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team; to forwards, 3.2 a game, the 4th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
SAS commit 12.2 turnovers a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs SAS (forwards; usage 13% to 23%, 15.4 to 31.4 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Oso Ighodaro (PHX) 0 vs 0.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Miles Bridges (PHX) 0 vs 1.3 in his other games (Nov 9); Dillon Brooks (PHX) 0 vs 0.9 in his other games (Nov 9) and 14 more; mean -0.4 steals against their own averages over 25 games from 17 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the under at 55% (1 book at 0.5).

Blocks 0.5 · Over -177 / Under +130 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 0.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 4, 1 (7.1 min), 0, 2, 3, 0, 0, 0, 1); season average 1.2, last 3 average 1.7.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 23.4 a game so far; 0.052 blocks per minute projects 1.0, +109% against the 0.5 line.
The projection assumes 20.0 minutes, fewer than his 23.4 a game so far.
SAS take 91.7 shots a game, the 3rd-most of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the over at 60% (1 book at 0.5).

Case for the under

Nothing in the numbers points this way