MEM · F · 2026 season

Jaylen Wells

Next game: vs DEN, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 19:02 UTC · lines as of 18:39 UTC

Projected 29.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 10.5 · Over -107 / Under -126 · 14 books

Case for the over

Over 10.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 14, 7, 0, 16, 4, 10, 14, 16, 17, 12); season average 11.0.
Projected for 29.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 27.0 a game so far; 0.408 points per minute projects 11.8, +13% against the 10.5 line.
DEN allow 114.0 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 7.0 points, below the 10.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Shot volume is down: 6.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 7.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding
DEN average 99.0 possessions a game, the 4th-slowest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs DEN (forwards; usage 9.1% to 19.1%, 19.0 to 35.0 min a game, at least 21.0 min in the game): Amen Thompson (HOU) 8 vs 15.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Toumani Camara (POR) 9 vs 13.4 in his other games (Nov 2); Trey Murphy III (NOP) 6 and 26 vs 15.4 in his other games (Oct 28, Oct 24) and 3 more; mean -0.5 points against their own averages over 7 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 2.5 · Over -170 / Under +127 · 12 books

Case for the over

Over 2.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 4, 0, 1, 3, 2, 1, 3, 5, 4, 5); season average 2.8.
Projected for 29.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 27.0 a game so far; 0.104 rebounds per minute projects 3.0, +20% against the 2.5 line.
Role comparables vs DEN (forwards; usage 9.1% to 19.1%, 19.0 to 35.0 min a game, at least 21.0 min in the game): Toumani Camara (POR) 5 vs 3.1 in his other games (Nov 2); Gui Santos (GSW) 3 vs 4.1 in his other games (Oct 26); mean +0.4 rebounds against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 59% (12 books at 2.5).

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 1.7 rebounds, below the 2.5 line. a hint, not a finding
He has grabbed 3.4% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3, down from 5.1% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
To forwards, DEN have allowed 22.2 rebounds a game over 9 games, the 7th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
DEN miss 43.9 shots a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
DEN average 99.0 possessions a game, the 4th-slowest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 1.5 · Over -145 / Under +106 · 13 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 4, 1, 0, 3, 0, 2, 2, 2, 4, 1); season average 1.9, last 3 average 1.7.
Projected for 29.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 27.0 a game so far; 0.070 threes per minute projects 2.0, +36% against the 1.5 line.
To forwards, DEN have allowed 7.2 threes made a game over 9 games, the 5th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
DEN allow 39.8 three-point attempts a game, the 9th-most of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 55% (13 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

Shot volume is down: 4.0 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding
DEN average 99.0 possessions a game, the 4th-slowest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 13.5 · Over -116 / Under -115 · 8 books

Case for the over

Over 13.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 18, 7, 1, 19, 6, 11, 17, 21, 21, 17).
Projected for 29.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 27.0 a game so far; 0.512 PR per minute projects 14.8, +10% against the 13.5 line.
DEN allow 114.0 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 8.7 points + rebounds, below the 13.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Shot volume is down: 6.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 7.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding
DEN average 99.0 possessions a game, the 4th-slowest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs DEN (forwards; usage 9.1% to 19.1%, 19.0 to 35.0 min a game, at least 21.0 min in the game): Toumani Camara (POR) 14 vs 16.6 in his other games (Nov 2); Trey Murphy III (NOP) 7 and 32 vs 20.6 in his other games (Oct 28, Oct 24); Gui Santos (GSW) 16 vs 9.3 in his other games (Oct 26) and 2 more; mean -0.7 points + rebounds against their own averages over 6 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 0.5 · Over -159 / Under +117 · 1 book

Case for the over

He averages 0.9 steals over 10 games, above the 0.5 line.
Projected for 29.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 27.0 a game so far; 0.033 steals per minute projects 1.0, +94% against the 0.5 line.
After removing the vig, the book prices the over at 57% (1 book at 0.5).

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 0.3 steals, below the 0.5 line. a hint, not a finding
DEN have allowed 7.8 steals a game over 9 games, the 7th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 3.2 a game, the 6th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
DEN commit 13.2 turnovers a game, the 6th-fewest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
DEN average 99.0 possessions a game, the 4th-slowest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs DEN (forwards; usage 9.1% to 19.1%, 19.0 to 35.0 min a game, at least 21.0 min in the game): Amen Thompson (HOU) 1 vs 1.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Toumani Camara (POR) 0 vs 0.8 in his other games (Nov 2); Trey Murphy III (NOP) 2 and 1 vs 0.9 in his other games (Oct 28, Oct 24) and 4 more; mean -0.1 steals against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

10 games played · averaging 11.0 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 11.5 · POINTS · 2024–2026

HIT RATE47.5%75 of 158 games

INTERVAL39.8%–55.2%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+110at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+151if the rate is 39.8%

Jaylen has cleared 11.5 points in 47.5% of 158 games since 2024, and in 60.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +110 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-09

TOR

AWAY

26.0MIN

14POINTS

4 · 1 · 5-8

ABOVE

FG: 5-8
3PT: 4-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 87.5
USG%: 14.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 0
+/−: +21
PRA: 19

2026-11-06

OKC

HOME

25.2MIN

7POINTS

0 · 0 · 2-7

BELOW

FG: 2-7
3PT: 1-4
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/0
TS%: 44.4
USG%: 15.8
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: -31
PRA: 7

2026-11-04

IND

HOME

21.5MIN

0POINTS

1 · 3 · 0-3

BELOW

FG: 0-3
3PT: 0-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 0.0
USG%: 7.7
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 5
+/−: 0
PRA: 4

2026-11-02

HOME

33.9MIN

16POINTS

3 · 3 · 6-11

ABOVE

FG: 6-11
3PT: 3-8
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 69.9
USG%: 15.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +3
PRA: 22

2026-10-31

SAC

HOME

22.4MIN

4POINTS

2 · 0 · 2-5

BELOW

FG: 2-5
3PT: 0-3
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 1/1
TS%: 40.0
USG%: 11.3
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: -9
PRA: 6

2026-10-29

POR

AWAY

25.0MIN

10POINTS

1 · 0 · 4-9

BELOW

FG: 4-9
3PT: 2-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 55.6
USG%: 14.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +20
PRA: 11

2026-10-26

UTAH

AWAY

30.3MIN

14POINTS

3 · 0 · 5-9

ABOVE

FG: 5-9
3PT: 2-5
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 0/3
TS%: 70.9
USG%: 14.7
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: -9
PRA: 17

2026-10-25

SAC

AWAY

32.8MIN

16POINTS

5 · 3 · 6-7

ABOVE

FG: 6-7
3PT: 2-2
FT: 2-2
OREB/DREB: 2/3
TS%: 101.5
USG%: 10.9
STL: 2
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 3
+/−: +24
PRA: 24

2026-10-23

AWAY

24.9MIN

17POINTS

4 · 3 · 5-9

ABOVE

FG: 5-9
3PT: 4-7
FT: 3-5
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 75.9
USG%: 19.5
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 5
+/−: +12
PRA: 24

2026-10-21

UTAH

HOME

27.7MIN

12POINTS

5 · 0 · 5-10

ABOVE

FG: 5-10
3PT: 1-4
FT: 1-3
OREB/DREB: 3/2
TS%: 53.0
USG%: 16.6
STL: 4
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +25
PRA: 17

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: vs DEN, Thu 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 6 hours before tip, 19:02 UTC · lines as of 18:39 UTC

Projected 29.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 10 games this season

Points 10.5 · Over -107 / Under -126 · 14 books

Case for the over

Over 10.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 14, 7, 0, 16, 4, 10, 14, 16, 17, 12); season average 11.0.
Projected for 29.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 27.0 a game so far; 0.408 points per minute projects 11.8, +13% against the 10.5 line.
DEN allow 114.0 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 7.0 points, below the 10.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Shot volume is down: 6.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 7.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding
DEN average 99.0 possessions a game, the 4th-slowest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs DEN (forwards; usage 9.1% to 19.1%, 19.0 to 35.0 min a game, at least 21.0 min in the game): Amen Thompson (HOU) 8 vs 15.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Toumani Camara (POR) 9 vs 13.4 in his other games (Nov 2); Trey Murphy III (NOP) 6 and 26 vs 15.4 in his other games (Oct 28, Oct 24) and 3 more; mean -0.5 points against their own averages over 7 games from 6 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 2.5 · Over -170 / Under +127 · 12 books

Case for the over

Over 2.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 4, 0, 1, 3, 2, 1, 3, 5, 4, 5); season average 2.8.
Projected for 29.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 27.0 a game so far; 0.104 rebounds per minute projects 3.0, +20% against the 2.5 line.
Role comparables vs DEN (forwards; usage 9.1% to 19.1%, 19.0 to 35.0 min a game, at least 21.0 min in the game): Toumani Camara (POR) 5 vs 3.1 in his other games (Nov 2); Gui Santos (GSW) 3 vs 4.1 in his other games (Oct 26); mean +0.4 rebounds against their own averages over 2 games from 2 comparables. a hint, not a findingContext only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 59% (12 books at 2.5).

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 1.7 rebounds, below the 2.5 line. a hint, not a finding
He has grabbed 3.4% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3, down from 5.1% on the season (9 of 10 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
To forwards, DEN have allowed 22.2 rebounds a game over 9 games, the 7th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
DEN miss 43.9 shots a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
DEN average 99.0 possessions a game, the 4th-slowest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 1.5 · Over -145 / Under +106 · 13 books

Case for the over

Over 1.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 4, 1, 0, 3, 0, 2, 2, 2, 4, 1); season average 1.9, last 3 average 1.7.
Projected for 29.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 27.0 a game so far; 0.070 threes per minute projects 2.0, +36% against the 1.5 line.
To forwards, DEN have allowed 7.2 threes made a game over 9 games, the 5th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
DEN allow 39.8 three-point attempts a game, the 9th-most of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 55% (13 books at 1.5).

Case for the under

Shot volume is down: 4.0 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding
DEN average 99.0 possessions a game, the 4th-slowest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 13.5 · Over -116 / Under -115 · 8 books

Case for the over

Over 13.5 in 6 of 10 games this season (newest first: 18, 7, 1, 19, 6, 11, 17, 21, 21, 17).
Projected for 29.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 27.0 a game so far; 0.512 PR per minute projects 14.8, +10% against the 13.5 line.
DEN allow 114.0 points per 100 possessions, the 8th-highest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 8.7 points + rebounds, below the 13.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Shot volume is down: 6.0 field-goal attempts a game over his last 3, against 7.8 on the season. a hint, not a finding
DEN average 99.0 possessions a game, the 4th-slowest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs DEN (forwards; usage 9.1% to 19.1%, 19.0 to 35.0 min a game, at least 21.0 min in the game): Toumani Camara (POR) 14 vs 16.6 in his other games (Nov 2); Trey Murphy III (NOP) 7 and 32 vs 20.6 in his other games (Oct 28, Oct 24); Gui Santos (GSW) 16 vs 9.3 in his other games (Oct 26) and 2 more; mean -0.7 points + rebounds against their own averages over 6 games from 5 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Steals 0.5 · Over -159 / Under +117 · 1 book

Case for the over

He averages 0.9 steals over 10 games, above the 0.5 line.
Projected for 29.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 27.0 a game so far; 0.033 steals per minute projects 1.0, +94% against the 0.5 line.
After removing the vig, the book prices the over at 57% (1 book at 0.5).

Case for the under

His last 3 games average 0.3 steals, below the 0.5 line. a hint, not a finding
DEN have allowed 7.8 steals a game over 9 games, the 7th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 3.2 a game, the 6th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
DEN commit 13.2 turnovers a game, the 6th-fewest of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
DEN average 99.0 possessions a game, the 4th-slowest pace of 30 (9 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs DEN (forwards; usage 9.1% to 19.1%, 19.0 to 35.0 min a game, at least 21.0 min in the game): Amen Thompson (HOU) 1 vs 1.1 in his other games (Nov 9); Toumani Camara (POR) 0 vs 0.8 in his other games (Nov 2); Trey Murphy III (NOP) 2 and 1 vs 0.9 in his other games (Oct 28, Oct 24) and 4 more; mean -0.1 steals against their own averages over 8 games from 7 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.