CLE · G-F · 2026 season

Jaylon Tyson

Next game: at NYK, Thu 00:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 88 minutes before tip, 22:32 UTC · lines as of 22:19 UTC

Projected 20.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 5 games this season

Points 7.5 · Over -125 / Under -105 · 13 books

Case for the over

He averages 7.8 points over 5 games, above the 7.5 line.
Role comparables vs NYK (guards; usage 13.9% to 23.9%, 12.7 to 28.7 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Ryan Rollins (MIL) 14 vs 10.7 in his other games (Nov 10); Kasparas Jakučionis (MIL) 11 vs 6.4 in his other games (Nov 10); Brayden Burries (MIL) 3 vs 10.5 in his other games (Nov 10) and 7 more; mean +1.7 points against their own averages over 13 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 7.5 in 3 of 5 games this season (newest first: 3, 7, 11, 15, 3); last 3 average 7.0.
NYK have allowed 102.3 points a game over 10 games, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
NYK allow 104.3 points per 100 possessions, the 3rd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
NYK average 98.1 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 3.5 · Over -115 / Under -115 · 13 books

Case for the over

Over 3.5 in 3 of 5 games this season (newest first: 6, 1, 4, 1, 6); last 3 average 3.7.
He has grabbed 10.1% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3 games (2 with on-court counts), up from 7.8% on the season (4 of 5 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
NYK miss 50.8 shots a game, the 5th-most of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

NYK have allowed 39.8 rebounds a game over 10 games, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
NYK average 98.1 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs NYK (guards; usage 13.9% to 23.9%, 12.7 to 28.7 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Ryan Rollins (MIL) 5 vs 4.4 in his other games (Nov 10); Kasparas Jakučionis (MIL) 0 vs 2.5 in his other games (Nov 10); Brayden Burries (MIL) 3 vs 5.5 in his other games (Nov 10) and 9 more; mean -0.6 rebounds against their own averages over 15 games from 12 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 1.5 · Over +144 / Under -197 · 13 books

Case for the over

NYK allow 41.0 three-point attempts a game, the 5th-most of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs NYK (guards; usage 13.9% to 23.9%, 12.7 to 28.7 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Ryan Rollins (MIL) 4 vs 1.5 in his other games (Nov 10); Kasparas Jakučionis (MIL) 2 vs 0.5 in his other games (Nov 10); Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIL) 2 vs 1.7 in his other games (Nov 10) and 8 more; mean +0.8 threes made against their own averages over 13 games from 11 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 4 of 5 games this season (newest first: 1, 1, 0, 3, 0); season average 1.0, last 3 average 0.7.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.7 a game so far; 0.048 threes per minute projects 1.0, -36% against the 1.5 line.
Shot volume is down: 3.7 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.4 on the season. a hint, not a finding
NYK average 98.1 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 61% (13 books at 1.5).

Pts+Reb 11.5 · Over -124 / Under -110 · 9 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 11.5 in 3 of 5 games this season (newest first: 9, 8, 15, 16, 9); last 3 average 10.7.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.7 a game so far; 0.550 PR per minute projects 11.0, -4% against the 11.5 line.
NYK have allowed 142.1 points + rebounds a game over 10 games, the fewest of 30; to guards, 76.3 a game, the 9th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
NYK allow 104.3 points per 100 possessions, the 3rd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
NYK average 98.1 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

5 games played · averaging 7.8 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 7.5 · POINTS · 2024–2026

HIT RATE47.5%66 of 139 games

INTERVAL39.4%–55.7%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+110at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+154if the rate is 39.4%

Jaylon has cleared 7.5 points in 47.5% of 139 games since 2024, and in 20.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +110 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-10-29

ATL

AWAY

18.0MIN

3POINTS

6 · 1 · 1-7

BELOW

FG: 1-7
3PT: 1-5
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 21.4
USG%: 17.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 0
PF: 1
+/−: 0
PRA: 10

2026-10-28

WAS

HOME

20.7MIN

7POINTS

1 · 2 · 3-5

BELOW

FG: 3-5
3PT: 1-2
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 70.0
USG%: 12.2
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 1
+/−: +4
PRA: 10

2026-10-26

MIN

HOME

20.3MIN

11POINTS

4 · 5 · 5-9

ABOVE

FG: 5-9
3PT: 0-4
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 2/2
TS%: 55.7
USG%: 23.2
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 1
PF: 4
+/−: +15
PRA: 20

2026-10-24

BKN

HOME

20.6MIN

15POINTS

1 · 4 · 6-12

ABOVE

FG: 6-12
3PT: 3-7
FT: 0-0
OREB/DREB: 0/1
TS%: 62.5
USG%: 27.5
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: +7
PRA: 20

2026-10-22

PHI

AWAY

24.0MIN

3POINTS

6 · 2 · 1-6

BELOW

FG: 1-6
3PT: 0-4
FT: 1-2
OREB/DREB: 2/4
TS%: 21.8
USG%: 14.8
STL: 1
BLK: 2
TOV: 2
PF: 4
+/−: +5
PRA: 11

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: at NYK, Thu 00:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 88 minutes before tip, 22:32 UTC · lines as of 22:19 UTC

Projected 20.0 min (RotoWire projection) · starting lineup not confirmed · 5 games this season

Points 7.5 · Over -125 / Under -105 · 13 books

Case for the over

He averages 7.8 points over 5 games, above the 7.5 line.
Role comparables vs NYK (guards; usage 13.9% to 23.9%, 12.7 to 28.7 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Ryan Rollins (MIL) 14 vs 10.7 in his other games (Nov 10); Kasparas Jakučionis (MIL) 11 vs 6.4 in his other games (Nov 10); Brayden Burries (MIL) 3 vs 10.5 in his other games (Nov 10) and 7 more; mean +1.7 points against their own averages over 13 games from 10 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 7.5 in 3 of 5 games this season (newest first: 3, 7, 11, 15, 3); last 3 average 7.0.
NYK have allowed 102.3 points a game over 10 games, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
NYK allow 104.3 points per 100 possessions, the 3rd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
NYK average 98.1 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 3.5 · Over -115 / Under -115 · 13 books

Case for the over

Over 3.5 in 3 of 5 games this season (newest first: 6, 1, 4, 1, 6); last 3 average 3.7.
He has grabbed 10.1% of the live rebounds while on the floor over his last 3 games (2 with on-court counts), up from 7.8% on the season (4 of 5 games with on-court counts). a hint, not a finding
NYK miss 50.8 shots a game, the 5th-most of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

NYK have allowed 39.8 rebounds a game over 10 games, the fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
NYK average 98.1 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs NYK (guards; usage 13.9% to 23.9%, 12.7 to 28.7 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Ryan Rollins (MIL) 5 vs 4.4 in his other games (Nov 10); Kasparas Jakučionis (MIL) 0 vs 2.5 in his other games (Nov 10); Brayden Burries (MIL) 3 vs 5.5 in his other games (Nov 10) and 9 more; mean -0.6 rebounds against their own averages over 15 games from 12 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 1.5 · Over +144 / Under -197 · 13 books

Case for the over

NYK allow 41.0 three-point attempts a game, the 5th-most of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
Role comparables vs NYK (guards; usage 13.9% to 23.9%, 12.7 to 28.7 min a game, at least 12.0 min in the game): Ryan Rollins (MIL) 4 vs 1.5 in his other games (Nov 10); Kasparas Jakučionis (MIL) 2 vs 0.5 in his other games (Nov 10); Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIL) 2 vs 1.7 in his other games (Nov 10) and 8 more; mean +0.8 threes made against their own averages over 13 games from 11 comparables.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 1.5 in 4 of 5 games this season (newest first: 1, 1, 0, 3, 0); season average 1.0, last 3 average 0.7.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.7 a game so far; 0.048 threes per minute projects 1.0, -36% against the 1.5 line.
Shot volume is down: 3.7 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 4.4 on the season. a hint, not a finding
NYK average 98.1 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 61% (13 books at 1.5).

Pts+Reb 11.5 · Over -124 / Under -110 · 9 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 11.5 in 3 of 5 games this season (newest first: 9, 8, 15, 16, 9); last 3 average 10.7.
Projected for 20.0 minutes (RotoWire projection) after 20.7 a game so far; 0.550 PR per minute projects 11.0, -4% against the 11.5 line.
NYK have allowed 142.1 points + rebounds a game over 10 games, the fewest of 30; to guards, 76.3 a game, the 9th-fewest of 30, tied with 1 other team.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
NYK allow 104.3 points per 100 possessions, the 3rd-lowest of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
NYK average 98.1 possessions a game, the 2nd-slowest pace of 30 (10 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.