BOS · F-G · 2026 season

Jayson Tatum

Next game: at PHI, Wed 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 24 hours before tip, 01:02 UTC · lines as of 00:01 UTC

Projected 33.7 min (season average) · 9 games this season

Points 26.5 · Over -121 / Under -112 · 5 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 26.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 21, 34, 19, 32, 26, 40, 23, 36, 13); last 3 average 24.7.
PHI have allowed 107.9 points a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 51.5 a game, the 10th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 7.5 · Over +105 / Under -141 · 3 books

Case for the over

PHI have allowed 47.8 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 5th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI miss 49.3 shots a game, the 10th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 7.5 in 7 of 9 games this season (newest first: 4, 8, 6, 4, 7, 5, 7, 9, 4); season average 6.0, last 3 average 6.0.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 33.7 minutes stands in; 0.178 rebounds per minute projects 6.0, -20% against the 7.5 line.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 55% (3 books at 7.5).

Assists 6.5 · Over -130 / Under -105 · 5 books

Case for the over

Over 6.5 in 7 of 9 games this season (newest first: 6, 9, 9, 7, 7, 8, 6, 7, 11); season average 7.8, last 3 average 8.0.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 33.7 minutes stands in; 0.230 assists per minute projects 7.8, +20% against the 6.5 line.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 53% (5 books at 6.5).

Case for the under

PHI have allowed 24.5 assists a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 8.3 a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 44.5% shooting from the field, the 9th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 2.5 · Over -120 / Under -115 · 5 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 3.7 threes made, above the 2.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Shot volume is up: 8.7 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 7.4 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

Under 2.5 in 6 of 9 games this season (newest first: 5, 5, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 0); season average 2.3.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 33.7 minutes stands in; 0.069 threes per minute projects 2.3, -7% against the 2.5 line.
PHI have allowed 11.3 threes made a game over 11 games, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 35.5 three-point attempts a game, the 9th-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 41.5 · Over -108 / Under -125 · 5 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 41.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 31, 51, 34, 43, 40, 53, 36, 52, 28); last 3 average 38.7.
To forwards, PHI have allowed 85.2 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 34.5 · Over -109 / Under -123 · 4 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 34.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 25, 42, 25, 36, 33, 45, 30, 45, 17); season average 33.1, last 3 average 30.7.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 33.7 minutes stands in; 0.981 PR per minute projects 33.1, -4% against the 34.5 line.
PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 33.5 · Over -125 / Under -110 · 4 books

Case for the over

He averages 34.9 points + assists over 9 games, above the 33.5 line.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 33.7 minutes stands in; 1.034 PA per minute projects 34.9, +4% against the 33.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 33.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 27, 43, 28, 39, 33, 48, 29, 43, 24).
PHI have allowed 132.4 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 59.8 a game, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 13.5 · Over -134 / Under -103 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 13.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 10, 17, 15, 11, 14, 13, 13, 16, 15); last 3 average 14.0.
PHI have allowed 72.3 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 9th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI miss 49.3 shots a game, the 10th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the over at 53% (1 book at 13.5).

Case for the under

To forwards, PHI have allowed 33.6 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 9th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Facts for each side of the line, not picks. WATCH marks a lean only on the last read, about 15 minutes before tip, with fresh lines and a confirmed lineup, and that lean has not beaten the market in our backtest.

9 games played · averaging 27.1 points. In the game log below, each game is judged against that average, not against a betting line.

OVER 27.5 · POINTS · 2019–2026

HIT RATE44.0%236 of 536 games

INTERVAL39.9%–48.3%95% confidence

BREAK-EVEN+127at that rate

AT THE FLOOR+151if the rate is 39.9%

Jayson has cleared 27.5 points in 44.0% of 536 games since 2019, and in 40.0% of the last 10. A wager at that rate needs +127 or better to break even — that is arithmetic on the rate, not a view on tonight's price.

DATE

OPP

H/A

MIN

POINTS

REB · AST · FG

VS AVG

2026-11-08

MIL

AWAY

28.9MIN

21POINTS

4 · 6 · 6-19

BELOW

FG: 6-19
3PT: 5-11
FT: 4-4
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 50.6
USG%: 32.5
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 1
PF: 0
+/−: +5
PRA: 31

2026-11-06

CHA

AWAY

29.0MIN

34POINTS

8 · 9 · 9-16

ABOVE

FG: 9-16
3PT: 5-8
FT: 11-11
OREB/DREB: 1/7
TS%: 81.6
USG%: 37.0
STL: 1
BLK: 1
TOV: 4
PF: 0
+/−: +36
PRA: 51

2026-11-02

HOU

AWAY

32.3MIN

19POINTS

6 · 9 · 5-16

BELOW

FG: 5-16
3PT: 1-7
FT: 8-8
OREB/DREB: 0/6
TS%: 48.7
USG%: 34.1
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 5
PF: 4
+/−: +1
PRA: 34

2026-11-01

ORL

AWAY

34.4MIN

32POINTS

4 · 7 · 8-19

ABOVE

FG: 8-19
3PT: 1-5
FT: 15-17
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 60.4
USG%: 39.6
STL: 0
BLK: 2
TOV: 4
PF: 0
+/−: +7
PRA: 43

2026-10-30

CHI

HOME

34.6MIN

26POINTS

7 · 7 · 9-20

BELOW

FG: 9-20
3PT: 2-7
FT: 6-8
OREB/DREB: 0/7
TS%: 55.3
USG%: 33.6
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 4
PF: 5
+/−: +5
PRA: 40

2026-10-27

BKN

HOME

42.3MIN

40POINTS

5 · 8 · 10-20

ABOVE

FG: 10-20
3PT: 2-7
FT: 18-22
OREB/DREB: 0/5
TS%: 67.4
USG%: 30.0
STL: 0
BLK: 1
TOV: 0
PF: 3
+/−: +5
PRA: 53

2026-10-26

CHI

HOME

27.7MIN

23POINTS

7 · 6 · 7-17

BELOW

FG: 7-17
3PT: 2-5
FT: 7-8
OREB/DREB: 1/6
TS%: 56.0
USG%: 31.4
STL: 1
BLK: 0
TOV: 3
PF: 4
+/−: +18
PRA: 36

2026-10-23

HOME

36.7MIN

36POINTS

9 · 7 · 14-26

ABOVE

FG: 14-26
3PT: 3-10
FT: 5-5
OREB/DREB: 1/8
TS%: 63.8
USG%: 37.9
STL: 3
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 2
+/−: +1
PRA: 52

2026-10-20

DET

AWAY

37.8MIN

13POINTS

4 · 11 · 6-23

BELOW

FG: 6-23
3PT: 0-7
FT: 1-1
OREB/DREB: 1/3
TS%: 27.7
USG%: 29.0
STL: 0
BLK: 0
TOV: 2
PF: 3
+/−: -5
PRA: 28

every game on file — nothing hidden

Next game: at PHI, Wed 01:00 UTC

EARLY READ

Read captured 24 hours before tip, 01:02 UTC · lines as of 00:01 UTC

Projected 33.7 min (season average) · 9 games this season

Points 26.5 · Over -121 / Under -112 · 5 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 26.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 21, 34, 19, 32, 26, 40, 23, 36, 13); last 3 average 24.7.
PHI have allowed 107.9 points a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 51.5 a game, the 10th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Rebounds 7.5 · Over +105 / Under -141 · 3 books

Case for the over

PHI have allowed 47.8 rebounds a game over 11 games, the 5th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI miss 49.3 shots a game, the 10th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Case for the under

Under 7.5 in 7 of 9 games this season (newest first: 4, 8, 6, 4, 7, 5, 7, 9, 4); season average 6.0, last 3 average 6.0.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 33.7 minutes stands in; 0.178 rebounds per minute projects 6.0, -20% against the 7.5 line.
After removing the vig, the books price the under at 55% (3 books at 7.5).

Assists 6.5 · Over -130 / Under -105 · 5 books

Case for the over

Over 6.5 in 7 of 9 games this season (newest first: 6, 9, 9, 7, 7, 8, 6, 7, 11); season average 7.8, last 3 average 8.0.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 33.7 minutes stands in; 0.230 assists per minute projects 7.8, +20% against the 6.5 line.
After removing the vig, the books price the over at 53% (5 books at 6.5).

Case for the under

PHI have allowed 24.5 assists a game over 11 games, the 7th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 8.3 a game, the 2nd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 44.5% shooting from the field, the 9th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Threes 2.5 · Over -120 / Under -115 · 5 books

Case for the over

His last 3 games average 3.7 threes made, above the 2.5 line. a hint, not a finding
Shot volume is up: 8.7 three-point attempts a game over his last 3, against 7.4 on the season. a hint, not a finding

Case for the under

Under 2.5 in 6 of 9 games this season (newest first: 5, 5, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 0); season average 2.3.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 33.7 minutes stands in; 0.069 threes per minute projects 2.3, -7% against the 2.5 line.
PHI have allowed 11.3 threes made a game over 11 games, the 3rd-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 35.5 three-point attempts a game, the 9th-fewest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb+Ast 41.5 · Over -108 / Under -125 · 5 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 41.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 31, 51, 34, 43, 40, 53, 36, 52, 28); last 3 average 38.7.
To forwards, PHI have allowed 85.2 points + rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Reb 34.5 · Over -109 / Under -123 · 4 books

Case for the over

Nothing in the numbers points this way

Case for the under

Under 34.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 25, 42, 25, 36, 33, 45, 30, 45, 17); season average 33.1, last 3 average 30.7.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 33.7 minutes stands in; 0.981 PR per minute projects 33.1, -4% against the 34.5 line.
PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Pts+Ast 33.5 · Over -125 / Under -110 · 4 books

Case for the over

He averages 34.9 points + assists over 9 games, above the 33.5 line.
With no lineup projection yet, his season average of 33.7 minutes stands in; 1.034 PA per minute projects 34.9, +4% against the 33.5 line.

Case for the under

Under 33.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 27, 43, 28, 39, 33, 48, 29, 43, 24).
PHI have allowed 132.4 points + assists a game over 11 games, the 8th-fewest of 30; to forwards, 59.8 a game, the 8th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI allow 105.6 points per 100 possessions, the 7th-lowest of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.

Reb+Ast 13.5 · Over -134 / Under -103 · 1 book

Case for the over

Over 13.5 in 5 of 9 games this season (newest first: 10, 17, 15, 11, 14, 13, 13, 16, 15); last 3 average 14.0.
PHI have allowed 72.3 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 9th-most of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
PHI miss 49.3 shots a game, the 10th-most of 30 (11 games).Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.
After removing the vig, the book prices the over at 53% (1 book at 13.5).

Case for the under

To forwards, PHI have allowed 33.6 rebounds + assists a game over 11 games, the 9th-fewest of 30.Context only: opponent splits are mostly noise this early in the season.